MILNET Brief
  Flashpoints: September 2004

Our September 2004 flashpoints analysis will cover nations from our original August 2001 analysis that preceded the 9/11 attacks plus inclusion of others such as Syria, Sudan, Lebanon, and Sierra Leone.  Ironically, the number one flashpoint at that time was Afghanistan. Today, however, while it makes our list, Indonesia, Iran and Syria are the top threats for political and terrorist activity, while Israel and the still unresolved Palestinian problem remains, as our military analysts would say, fluid and unpredictable.

Note that the ongoing violence in Iraq needs no further analysis, in that it is clear that the situation in several provinces remains problematic.  However, with elections coming in January, the Iraqi Interim Government will step up its efforts and MILNET believes some form of control over these provinces will be put into place in time to hold the January 2005 elections.

To aid the reader in finding current information, we have added the   icon which indicates new material added since the August 2001 update.  See also MILNET's more concise Situation Report on Terrorism.

The countries to be analyzed in this flashpoints analysis are:

Several nations from the previous flashpoints have remained inactive and we include the previous analysis with perhaps a few very minor updates.  If there is no further activity, they will be dropped from the analysis in the near future.  These are:

This report also adds nations we believe might be added to the  flashpoint list in the near future -- the "Boiling Cauldrons ", with both Cambodia and Northern Ireland being moved to that section.

See sources for more information on additional reading material.
 
 
 

Indonesia        (the larger Indonesian area)

Indonesia lies in the heart of Southeast Asia and consists of a group of islands grouped off the Malaysian-Singapore southern coasts.  The islands have always been an odd mix of cultures,  religions, languages, and political intrigue.  Its modern history includes emergence as a nation able to compete in world markets from textiles to electronics making it one of the more successful Asian emergents.

However long history of infighting between island cultures and indeed struggles between cultures on any one particular island have culminated in a frightening scenario for the future for its citizens.  To understand the difficulties, you need to look at characteristics of the people and cultures on each of the islands.



Indonesia has suffered two very large al-Qaeda attacks since 9/11, proving our earlier predictions that the island nation is ripe for terrorism.  Today, the nation appears incapable of detecting, let alone ejecting al-Qaeda cells, and despite increased and renewed efforts at anti-terrorism, the country remains a hot bed for terrorist activity which is hidden well underground.

More is to come for Indonesia, at least until they improve their internal security and border controls, and make a larger effort to eject terrorists of all sorts from their soil.

Terrorist Groups active in Indonesia are:

Name
 Description
Jemmah Islamiyah al-Qaeda linked group active throughout the South China Sea, focused on Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines and possibly in Australia.  Responsible for the killing of more than 200 in the 2002 bombing of two Bali nightclubs as well as the bombing of the Australian Embassy in Indonesia on September 9, 2004 which killed 9 and wounded 173.  JI members Azahari bin Husin and Noordin Top are currently sought as suspects in the bombings at the Australian Embassy.  The group is also thought to be responsible for a bombing at the J.W. Marriot hotel in Jarkata, Indonesia, in which 7 were killed. Led by  the radical Indonesian cleric Abu Bakar Bashir.
Kumpulan Mujahidin Malaysia (KMM) Indonesian Muslims played a leading role in this group that favors the overthrow of the Mahathir government in Malayasia and the creation of an Islamic state comprising Malaysia, Indonesia, and the southern Philippines. The group is also thought to operate in the  province of Wilayah Persukutuan, the federal territory comprising Kuala Lumpur.
al-Qaeda
 al-Qaeda fighters received terrorist training in the Poso region of Central Sulawesi and are linked through identified dual membership of Jemmah Islamiyah members who are also known  members of al-Qaeda.
Laskar Jihad This group's major goals are to establish Indonesia as an Islamic state and oust the Christian minority from the country. 9 After the October 2002 Bali bombing, Laskar Jihad announced it had disbanded. Its leader, Jaffar Umar Thalib, says he met Osama bin Laden while fighting in the Islamist brigades opposed to the 1979-89 Soviet occupation of Afghanistan but says he’s rejected al-Qaeda’s offers of funding. 11  established as the paramilitary wing of Forum Komunikasi Ahlus Sunnah wal Jammah (Communications Forum of the Followers of the Sunnah), established in Jogjakarta in early 1998. The LJ was formed on 30 January 2000 in response to religious violence in Maluku. The LJ arranged for military training to be given to volunteers at a camp in Bogor, near Jakarta. The LJ sent several thousand fighters to Maluku in the months after April 2000.  14
The Front Pembela Islam
A.k.a. (Islamic Defenders Front–FPI) - Indonesian radical Islamic group. The FPI was formed in August 1998 and now claims branches in 22 provinces. Based in Jakarta, the FPI is led by Habib Muhammad Riziek Syihab, a religious teacher who was educated in Saudi Arabia. Like Habib, many of the top FPI leaders have Arab blood. The FPI’s stated goal is the full implementation of Islamic Sharia law, although it supports Indonesia’s present constitution and avoids calling for an Islamic state. The FPI has a paramilitary wing called Laskar Pembela Islam and is well know for organising raids on bars, massage parlours and gaming halls. The FPI justifies these raids on the grounds that the police are unable to uphold laws on gambling and prostitution. Sceptical observers suspect that the police turn a blind eye to, or are complicit in, these activities, knowing that the victims will be encouraged to maintain protection monies to the police. The FPI in late 2001 took the lead in threatening to sweep Americans out of Indonesia because of the US operations in Afghanistan, although the threat was not in fact carried out. 14
Unnamed
 A number of homegrown Indonesian militants, sometimes linked to separatist groups, sometimes to the military, have bombed oil-production facilities on the westernmost Indonesian island of Aceh, attacked Christian churches, and assassinated separatist leaders in Aceh and Irian Jaya. 11, 12








Iran ( map )

At one time the heart of the Persian Empire, Iran has been in the public eye as a major troublespot over the last 55 years.  As home for anti-American interests since the fall of the Shah of Iran, Iran has been a thorn in the U.S. side that has yet to be healed.  Despite recent events that might lead one to believe a softening to the western culture may occur, hardline conservative Islamic powers remain in political office and control many aspects of Iranian life. Like the few other strict Islamic countries it shares the direct interpretation of Islamic law with,  recent Iranian images of  men and women whipped in public  harken back two centuries ago when Arabian warlords ruled the desert kingdoms.

Shia Islam became the country's religion at the start of the 16th century and has endured in both secular and clerical form since then.

In the 19th century, the desert way of life was pressured by the incursions of Russian and Europeans seen most intrusive when the search for oil began in the late 19th, early 20th century.  Many years after World I, Reza Khan, an officer from the Persian Cossack Brigade took advantage of a confused government and was crowned Reza Shah Pahlavi, the Shah of Iran in 1925.  Aiming at removing the religious power from the government, the Shah outlawed the woman's veil, began education of woman and children and brought many western ways to the country.  He became a staunch ally of western nations, buying western goods from Britain and the U.S.  More importantly, he re-negotiated oil rights in the region to make Iran more independent from that economic crutch.  Eventually he abdicated to his son, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, who became an even stronger ally of the U.S. as he bought modern weapons and opened Iranian airways to western surveillance of the region.  In 1951, however, the Iranian Prime Minister was elected and he nationalized the oil assets.  Faced with strategic oil problems if the prime minister prevailed, the U.S. helped the Shah to stage a coup and put him back in power.

In the early 1960s the Shah led the "White Revolution" where he continued his father's efforts to modernize the country and included education and training programs, and well as redistribution of lands for agriculture and began profit sharing in business -- all in an effort to bring the country into the 20th century.

Clerics lost much of their power in those days and they began a secret effort to up-end the Shah.  The Shah's own iron fisted government which brooked little protest, was seen by many as an oppressive regime and aided the clerics in that effort as they painted the Shah as a devil spawned by the Great Satan, the United States.  Finally the Shah had enough and arrested Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, an Islamic jurist, for his public complaints against the Shah.  Khomeini was exiled in 1964, only to return in 1979 after more than a decade of the Shah attempting to hold the clerics at bay with his secret service the Savak.  In April of 1979 Khomeni took power and declared Iran the Islamic Republic of Iran, cementing a clerical rule that lasted for over twenty years.

Even today, the clerics retain much power and continue their strict and frightening hold over police and courts in Iran.  Thus, the country is threatened by the clash between the popularly elected government and clerics once again.  Popular elections have given more and more power over the clerics however, with a majority of the elected ministers being reformers.  Not surpassingly, with more and more western culture being allowed by the reformers, relations with the western world, including the United States, has improved.

Terrorist organizations have thrived under the strict Islamic law in Iran over the last few decades.  Many still have ties with those elements believing in Strict Islamic rule and the Jihad.  The list is as follows:


Recent activity in the area of production capability for manufacturing of weapons grade nuclear material has raised the concern that Iran may become the nuclear arms dealer to any and all Shia favorable terrorists groups.  See the MILNET report on Iran's Nuclear Chronology.  Iran continues to support terrorism as a policy tool and claims their WMD efforts, which include chemical weapons, are in response to Israeli capabilities which threaten Iran.

The United Nations is "seized" with attention on Iran as the IAEA reports indicate a well known pattern towards a first nuclear test, including detection of highly enriched uranium and the purchases and announcement of the use of centrifuges necessary for high enrichment.  MILNET estimates that it is only the lack of material that prevents Iran from testing a weapon, a condition that will not last very long.


 


Syria   (map) and Lebanon   (map)

Syria's modern history begins with a constitution that imbeds socialist ideals.  From the U.S. Library of Congress country studies series, the following describes how the constitution has framed the country in modern times.

"In 1987 the governmental structure was based on the Permanent Constitution of March 13, 1973. This charter is similar to the provisional constitution of May 1, 1969, as amended in February and June 1971. The Constitution provides for a republican form of government in what it calls "a democratic, popular, socialist, and sovereign state" and stipulates that the people are the ultimate source of national sovereignty.

The Constitution reaffirms the long-held ideological premise that Syria is only a part of the one and indivisible "Arab nation" that is struggling for complete Arab unity. Syria is constitutionally declared still to be a member of the Federation of Arab Republics (FAR), which was inaugurated in April 1971 by Egypt, Syria, and Libya. Although the FAR was short lived, its constitutional formula provides a framework for ongoing Syrian efforts at unity with other Arab nations.

Among the principles in the Constitution is the stipulation that the president be a Muslim, that the main source of legislation be Islamic fikh (doctrine and jurisprudence), and that the Baath Party be "the vanguard party in the society and the state." In addition, the state is directed to safeguard the fundamental rights of citizens to enjoy freedom and to participate in political, economic, social, and cultural life within the limits of the law. Free exercise of religious belief is guaranteed as long as such exercise does not affect public order. In keeping with the Arab character of the nation, the purpose of the educational system is described as creation of "an Arab national socialist generation with scientific training"--a generation committed to establishment of a united Arab socialist nation.

The Constitution's economic principles not only set forth a planned socialist economy that should take into account "economic complementarily in the Arab homeland" but also recognize three categories of property. The three kinds are property of the people, including all natural resources, public domains, nationalized enterprises, and establishments created by the state; collective property, such as assets owned by popular and professional organizations; and private property. The Constitution states that the social function of private property shall be subordinated, under law, to the national economy and public interests. However, expropriation may occur only with just compensation."

The country study also looks at the impact of the dictator like rule of the late Hafiz al Assad:

"IN EARLY 1987, President Hafiz al Assad, in power since his November 1970 takeover in a bloodless military coup d'état, continued to lead Syria. His regime appeared to be resilient, if not altogether stable. Only a few years earlier, the regime had encountered several major threats. In 1982 the government of Syria endured nearly simultaneous major domestic and external challenges: the uprising of Muslim fundamentalist rebels and the Israeli attack on Syrian forces in Lebanon. Then, in late 1983 and early 1984, Assad became seriously ill, leading to splits within the regime as factions maneuvered to succeed him. These machinations proved to be premature, however, because Assad subsequently recovered and reasserted his power. Nonetheless, the domestic political infighting and external military clashes that occurred while Assad was incapacitated reminded Syrians of their nation's chronic instability of the 1950s and 1960s and foreshadowed the return of such instability after Assad. The crises also reinforced the perception that the strength of the Syrian government was not only vested in the president but derived from him personally. Consequently, although Assad had transformed Syria into a regional power in the Levant and had created domestic stability, his accomplishments could prove ephemeral because they were not buttressed by legitimate and viable institutions. Even more unsettling, in 1987 the question of a successor to President Assad was still unresolved.

Since 1970 Assad's pragmatism, ambition, and patience have helped transform Syria into a regional power. Syrian development has been motivated and hastened by the threat posed by Israel. In fact, in 1984 Assad announced Syria's determination to attain "strategic parity" with Israel and further stated that Syria would strive to match Israel's level of modernization across the wide spectrum of "political, demographic, social, educational, economic, and military aspects of life."

However, Syria's status as a regional power imposed costs and liabilities. For instance, in 1987 Syria was relatively isolated in the Arab world, primarily because of its maverick support for Iran in the Iran-Iraq War and its involvement in Lebanon. Also, its economy staggered under the weight of its military budget, and it depended heavily on the Soviet Union for military equipment."

Assad's son and inheritor of the power in Syria at first appeared to be open to more enlightened philosophies, however, years have also appeared to have modified that possibility, leaving Syria to continue as the protagonist in the horrid play of the middle east peace process. 

To capture the view of Israel, our Syrian Threat analysis quotes the U.S. Department of State annual report, Patterns of Global Terrorism:

"Syria has come under strong pressure from the United States since the invasion of Iraq. In some areas, such as preventing the movement of foreign fighters through Syria to Iraq, Syria seems to be trying to accommodate U.S. demands.  Nevertheless, on the question of abandoning its WMD capabilities, especially chemical and missile programs, Syria has so far given no indication that it is prepared to follow Gaddafi's lead [Libya recently admitted to WMD programs including nuclear weapons and has since began to fully cooperate with nonproliferation measures -- MILNET].

Syria sees its non conventional weapons capabilities as a counter to Israel. If it is prepared to put those capabilities on the negotiating table at all, it would probably do so only in the context of a peace settlement with Israel. Even then, Syria might argue that it needs to hold on to those capabilities as long as Israel retains nuclear weapons."

The focus on WMD is not a coincidence. The U.S. position is that rogue nations with WMD capabilities will, over time, and if they have not already, will sell or provide for free WMD capability to enable their policies, including the most alarming possibility, providing them to terrorist organizations. 

Syria is the home of the most virulent of terrorist groups, allowing both training camps and organizational offices, some right in downtown Damascus.  This support attitude of the government will eventually have to change or the country will face aggressive pressure including possible future military action from aggressive nations like the U.S. and U.K.



 

Afghanistan ( map )
The original edition of this report was completed in August of 2001, only a month prior to the events of 9/11. Obviously, this Flashpoint exploded in an unprecedented leap to the forefront of human experience. An update to the Afghan information is available, and further updates will occur regularly, assuming events in that country stabilize long enough for our writing not to immediately be overcome by events. With the Taliban routed and an interim government in place, it is clear there is a positive direction for Afghanistan. -- MILNET

With a litany of rulers, many if not most assassinated in coups, the government of Afghanistan continues its long history of exceedingly poor leadership resulting in incredibly hard times for its people -- from unrest to outright barbarianizm.  Witness recent Islamic rituals from the third century -- public whippings that would make your hair curl, all over what the rest of the world would consider minor youthful infractions like smoking or smiling at the wrong young woman.  Past leaders probably roll in their graves; King Mohammad Zahir Shah, his cousin Mohammed Daoud, Presidents Noor Taraki,  Hafizullah Amin and Babrak Karmal who finally gave up and asked the Soviets to come and help in December of 1979.  Nearly seven years later, the Soviets gave up trying to fight the resistance, the Mujahedeen, and placed President Najibullah in power.

The new leader became the lightning rod to which the Mujahedeen turned, and the Soviets pulled out after losing more than 100,000 of their own in the struggle.   Ethnic Tajiks pushed until they won the capital in 1992, and established the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan under  President Burhanuddin Rabbani while Najibullah went into exile for four years.  But the Mujahedeen still weren't satisfied, and soon another faction began to rear its ugly head.  A population of Pushan, a sect of mainly Muslim seminary students calling themselves the Taliban ("religious students" or "Students of Islam")  gathered followers over the next two years preaching strict Islamic rule over the portions of Afghanistan they won, until finally in 1996 they too overran the capital, Kabul.  Najibullah was captured and hung outside the great halls and a new era began.

The government withdrew to Panjar province and several warlords tried to fight the Taliban but to no avail until 1998 when the Taliban finally ruled 90% of the country with an iron Islamic fist. That period included destruction of many of the Middle East's valuable treasures as the Taliban ignored art and history in attempts to forge a path for the future.  Today, like in Iran, street whippings continue and crime is VERY hard to find unless it is local Taliban officials committing it.  And while the local warlords have been captured and killed, there are many left in hiding, and of course the former government continues to heckle the Taliban. Like Iran, however, the Islamic Taliban may find themselves forced by the people into less strict interpretation of Islamic law, the "gentle Islam" if you will with only the hardline cleric leadership believing the strict laws will keep their people safe.  This makes Afghanistan, for now, a powder keg as forces push to the countries organization and principles of the future.

In June, opposition forces launched a major offensive into the town of Ishkamish, 120 miles north of Kabul.  The attack came after two weeks of peace talks that, once again failed.  Quoted by AP news, the exiled Ambassador to the U.N.  Ghairat Baheer stated on August 13, "The Taliban's stance is very rigid...They don't believe in give-and-take, they don't believe in being part of the international community. They don't know they're living in the 20th century."  More likely the Taliban simply don't WANT to be living in the 21st century, where, much like the Iranian hard-liners, they find themselves perplexed by the peoples desires to go outside the overly strict interpretation of Islamic laws.  Take for example the burqa, the woman's veil so prevelent in Islamic nations decades ago.  In Taliban controlled Afghanistan, a woman found without a veil will be whipped in public.  Girls schools have been closed and administrators have been publicly punished for allowing even classrooms of all young woman to work without the veil, to be educated, or to go for food or drink for their families, in what many call rural beliefs rather than those rooted in the Koran -- the Islamic book of holy writings.


The U.S. lead attack against Afghanistan's Taliban and subsequent establishment of Kharzai as the President of the Interim Government has dramatically reduced terrorism in Afghanistan, however, remnants of the Taliban intelligence former Taliban Army personnel continue to harass government officials and make attempts on the new government's leaders.   Terrorist groups which were active in Afghanistan prior to the U.S. led coalition invasion include:

India/Pakistan ( map )  ( map )
MILNET Analysis of India and Pakistan Military Capabilities

A  line in the mountains of Khasmir separates India and Pakistan.  But more than this line has separated the two nations over the centuries.  In fact, like much of Asia, the country's' difficulties lie in religious and ideological fervor that some say will never be resolved.  It is not from want of violent attempts or peaceful attempts.  Today, however, the two countries, nuclear armed -- which many say both supports and refutes the nonproliferation movement -- "...maybe it could have worked, but look here, it didn't -- and now it's too late..." -- are perched upon a precipice that many say vie with the Arabs and Israelis for the next nuclear conflagration.

The bitter struggle began well before their simultaneous national independence in 1947, however, it was this split that is upper most in the minds of leaders of both countries.  Islamic leaders demanded the need to split the northern provinces of India into a separate, independent nation as India was about to win her independence from Britain.  Included finally in the negotiations, the Muslims were able to demark the Kashmir province as the dividing line, this line of control between India and Pakistan. The result was the largest trans-migration seen in world history as Hindus in the north crossed into the South to live India, and Muslims in the South crossed into the North to live in Pakistan.  Unfortunately, Kashmir, as one of the "princely states" which had lived somewhat autonomously under British Rule, now chaffed at the boundaries straddled by the Himalayas Valley in the South.

Decades of insurgency and border disputes have not led to any resolution and in 1974, India upped the ante by setting off its first nuclear explosion.  Pakistan's expected response, embarkation on their own nuclear program culminating in their own nuclear test in 1998 following India's second set of tests meant by the new Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party to threaten Pakistan.

Kashmir has been a region full of trouble since 1989, with more than 26,000 lives lost to insurgency.  The region is contested not only by India and Pakistan, but China as well.  An arrogant and increasingly more participatory Chinese government may spell additional trouble for the Indian-Pakistani problems.  In fact, with all three nations possessing nuclear weapons, some analysts think that this is where the first nuclear war will be fought (most consider the U.S. use of nuclear weapons as not being nuclear war since only one side of the conflict had use of the technology).

On August 9, 2001, India declared parts of the Himalayan Valley as a disturbed area, permitting new police powers for Indian security forces in the area, ratchetting up the tension once again.  Home Minister Lal K. Advani  speaking to the Indian parliament,  "I wish to assure this august House that the government shall leave no stone unturned in bringing back peace to Jammu and Kashmir."

On the same day as Advani's speech, a Pakistan-based militant group, Hezb-ul-Mujahedeen, bombed a military truck near the town of Ramsoo, 100 miles north of Jammu, killing its driver.

Another militant separatist group, the All Parties Hurriyat Conference , threatened to renew its violent fight to win Kashmir's independence from India.

Political parties are also well engrossed in the present conflict, with the opposition parties, Opposition Congress and  Bahujan Samaj Party demanding the resignation of Advani even as the minister place all of Kashmir except the predominately buddhist area of Ladakh under what amounts to martial law, allowing security forces to arrest anyone without warrant in the "disturbed area".  Human rights activists say the region has been the site of at least 60,000 people with the government admitting to perhaps half that figure.

Terrorist groups in India and Pakistan include:


Since 9/11, the relationship between the U.S. and Pakistan has created a condition where that nation is publicly supporting the war on terror, despite frequent "street" protests to that activity.  General Musharaff, the current Prime Minister, appears to realize that the War on Terror and specifically the hunt for the remnants of al-Qaeda ejected from Afghanistan, including bin Laden, will easily step all over Pakistan should they get in the way. 

The possibility of U.S. sanctions and possible military threat appear to have influence.  Recent revelations that Pakistan aided Libya in their nuclear weapons program have put Pakistan in an embarrassing position and their nuclear program, once thought to be confined to supporting their own nuclear experimentation, appears to at one point have become an export program.

It is not clear what the recent revelations will produce in the relationship between the U.S. and Pakistan, however sources indicate there is a lot of talk between the two on tighter controls and more intrusive inspections to ensure Pakistan does not export any further material or equipment related to WMD.


 

 


Israel and the Palestinians ( map )

A hotspot since their status as an independent nation, Israel continues to fight her Islamic neighbors, only now fighting is within the borders of annexed territory taken for buffer zones and has spread to Israeli cities directly affecting the population of the tiny country.

Modern history for Israelis and Palestinians includes the war that began 24 hours after their independence on April 26, 1948  the Six Days war, where the armies of Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq attacked. After some six years of battle, the forces finally withdrew, leaving the Israelis with their country but many lost lives and a penchant for over-reacting to any new threat. After an uneasy peace punctuated by massive acts of terrorism for 20 years, the Islamic forces once again began to build around the borders of the tiny nation.  This time, however, Israelis, bolstered by funds and arms from the U.S. and Britain, attacked first and leveled the Egyptian air force on the ground and in decisive tank battles moved their borders of Israel out into the neighboring countries.  The West Bank and Golan Heights became buffer zones against further neighbor's aggression and a new era opened for Israel, one that is yet to be played out.  Instead of focusing on their borders, Israel is now faced with dangers within their new borders as Palestinians chased out during the occupation have returned demanding their own slice of the deserts.

Much like the Irish situation, the Israeli-Palestinian struggle is mainly one of religion and alliances.  The Palestinians want their own Islamic rule and the Israelis are fighting for the live and future of their country and religion.  While circumspect about the fact, it is well known that Israeli at least has the materials  to build and deliver nuclear weapons, this card having yet to be played and certainly quite useless against the Palestinians.  However, as Israel attempts to deal with her problems internally, threats from outside supporting the Palestinians -- for instance quiet for some time, Egypt says they won't stand for wholesale slaughter of Palestinians and will invade -- may entice the Israelis to play the nuclear card in the form of, and at minimum of, an underground test.

Today Israel faces extremely hard choices.  Administrations are coming and going quickly as one after another blunts their swords against the onslaught of Palestinian demands for autonomy and their own homeland and the deaths of Israeli citizens or losses of settlement rights by a growing Israeli population. Recent Chronology of Terrorist Incidents and Response

With any number of recent peace talks starting and proceeding to a point with high hopes, only to be dashed with some point of contention followed by outbreaks of violence not only in the West Bank, or Gaza strip, but in the heart of Israel in Jerusalem, Haifa or Tel Aviv.  Clearly this is another flashpoint that will be in the list of such places for some time to come.

Despite several close calls in recent history, the Six Day war was the last invasion attempt Israel has faced.  However, the terrorist threat has existed for the entire life of the country and features the who's who of Middle Eastern terrorism.  See MILNET's terror section for further information on the factions involved or a chronology of the early terrorist years that has defined the world of terrorism in the annals of history -- years where nearly a day went by without and attack on an Israeli target in and out of the country.  And for recent events in Israel, see the AFI Research coverage of the Middle East over the last few months.

The political and terrorist groups that face Israel are typically based in Syria or their puppet nation Lebanon and are listed below:

Name
Acronym
Palestinians  
  • Al asqa Martyers Brigade - Wetwork's unit within Arafat's Fatah, recruits and "launches" suicide bombers into Palestinian territories or Israeli cities  Has been known to launch missiles as well.
  • Hamas - The Islamic Resistance Group, uses political and violent means, including terrorism, to pursue the goal of establishing an Islamic Palestinian state in place of Israel.
  • Palestinian Liberation Organization a.k.a. Fatah, led by Yasser Arafat
  • Progressive Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command, headed by Ahmad Jibril (Damascus, Syria and various sites in Lebanon)
  • Fatah Revolutionary Council, headed by the late? Abu Nidal
  • Fatah-Intifada (Syria), headed by Colonel Abu Moussa
AL ASQA


HAMAS


PLO
PFLP-GC

FRC
FI
Shi'i  
  • Hezbollah (Party of God) (Iran) - Radical Shia group formed in Lebanon; dedicated to creation of Iranian-style Islamic republic in Lebanon and removal of all non-Islamic influences from area. Strongly anti-West and anti-Israel. Closely allied with, and often directed by, Iran, but may have conducted rogue operations that were not approved by Tehran.
  HEZBOLLAH
Jewish
  • Kach / Kahane Chai - goal is to restore the biblical state of Israel.  Founded by radical Israeli- American rabbi Meir Kahane) and its offshoot Kahane Chai, which means “Kahane Lives,” (founded by Meir Kahane’s son Binyamin following his father’s assassination in the United States)
KACH


  




Serbia (the Balkan States of the former Republic of Yugoslavia) ( map )

The former Soviet antagonist has been the focus of NATO and other former Soviet States since the dissolution of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia's Socialist government.  Never a well balanced nation through history, the complex ethnic backgrounds surrounding and internal to the nation only served to divide the country rapidly when a strong armed socialist government no longer forced these elements to a begrudging if not happy peace.

One cannot look at recent history without looking first at the historical perspective, one that is even more important than that of the Israelis and the Palestinians.  According to the AP background article, Historical Perspective: Yugoslavia, a Legacy of Ethnic Hatred, by Jason Fields:

"The Slavic tribes arrived in the area in the 7th Century as part of a massive migration which  led to the settlement of not only the Balkans but much of Eastern Europe. Around the same time, most of the tribes converted to Christianity.

The Albanians are descended from people who lived in the Balkans for more than 2,000 years. The current Albanians speak a language which originated in those times.

 In the centuries following the Slavic tribes' arrival, the groups formalized into nations which fought wars and  traded with each other. The Great Schism between the Roman and Byzantine churches in 1054 would lead to  further divisions among the inhabitants of the Balkans. Croats became Catholic under pressure from the  Austro-Hungarian Empire (Croatia was conquered by Hungary in 1102. Serbs, Bosnians, Macedonians and  Montenegrins joined the Orthodox Church."

In fact, the region has contributed considerably to the 20th century as well, with the assassination in Sarajevo, Bosnia, of Archduke Franz Ferdinand  the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne being a major contributor to the onset of World War I.  Following World War I, the Serbs annexed Bosnia and then joined with Croatia and Slovenia to form what was later known as Yugoslavia.

 A fascist Croatian regime during World War II, murdered thousands of Serbs, Jews and Gypsies under the Nazi sponsored government.  Following World War II, a strong Communist government, under Josip Broz Tito, created Yugoslavia, joining together Slovenia, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia and then broke with the Soviet Union in 1948.

After Tito died in 1980, the country began a slow decade long burn down, with Nationalists rising in power until the internal borders split the country into Solvenia  and Croatia in the Northwest, Bosnia-Herzogavnia in the central west, and Montenegro and Kosovo in the Southwest.  A long North South tract about half as wide as the former Yugoslavia retained that name and government.  Eventually Macedonia and Albania rounded out eight parcels of land where NATO would soon find itself mired.

As time marched on, the religious factions piled atrocities upon atrocities, no one side demonstrating sterling behavior longer than a few years.  The Serbs vs. the Croats.  Bosnian Serbs versus everyone, and ethnic Albanians in Bosnia being slaughtered.  The relatively obscure term, "ethnic cleansing" surfaced from the days of Nazi persecution of non-Aryian races.

Finally in the latter part of the 10th century, the U.S. led NATO forces with the American high tech in attempts to suppress the violence in Bosnia and Kosovo.  Hardly a bloodless war, the violent air war and overwhelming ground forces were able to bring some semblance of order to the region.  Left to their own devices, however, governments in the region continue to defy attempts at creating and holding a lasting peace.

Instead of a list of terrorist organizations, the conflict in Yugoslavia and the regions to the south exists due to the locals themselves, with neighbor killing neighbor in chaotic civil strife found no where else in the world.  The groups intent upon each other's destruction are:

 

 


The Former Soviet Union (essentially Russia and neighboring states)

( map )

The Associated Press Flashpoint Series article ( Historical Perspective: Russia and the Former Soviet Union , Jason Fields, 11/17/00) begins with:

"The remnants of the Soviet Empire lie rusting across almost one-sixth of
 the world's landmass. In the Arctic Ocean the once-proud Soviet nuclear
 fleet rots at its moorings. Giant factories, once the symbols of socialist
 progress, now stand idle or pay their workers in toilet paper, food or even
 coffins. "
No one could write it better.  The wealthiest of the former Soviet countries is of course Russia, and even there times are still extremely tough.  Combined with a flagging economy and angry citizens wondering why the joys of capitalism haven't made their lives any better yet despite the western CDs and blue jeans abundant if you have the cash, a rampant mafia-like criminal element is raping any national wealth that is available.  Former hard-liners, learning to speak the language of reform have taken control of the country in a quiet electoral coup that threatens the rest of Europe blind to the awakening bear in their midst.

Today's Russia and the former Soviet Union is a direct result of the "failed socialist experiment" in the words of former U.S. President Reagan.  In 1917, Vladmir Lenin took the reigns of government abandoned by the Czars and his bumbling successors.  Lenin advocated and was successful in creating a Communist regime that re-aligned the entire nation following a bloody civil war.  The purges of those resisting the new national imperative continued after Lenin's death as Joseph Stalin took control.

The Soviet Union was an uneasy ally to the Western Nations as they battled the Third Reich and Japan during World War II.  After that long war, the Soviets quickly consolidated their empire by first political means and then military might, resulting in their border being stretched into Poland and Yugoslavia as well as annexing the Eastern half of Germany as part of their spoils after the war.  For years the Soviet Union's borders was called the Iron Curtain, both because little was heard about life on the "other side" and because of the Iron fist Stalin and his successors used to rule the vast territory.

The western Europe and U.S. allies formed the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and set a stake in the ground, guarding against a ground war coming across the Fulda Gap in Germany, and the Bering Straight in the Atlantic.  The cold war had begun later  to be symbolized by the Berlin Wall, a concrete barrier separating East Berlin from West Berlin, with the German capital sitting inside the East German zone of control.

After some 40 years, it all came to a quick and surprising end as both economics and internal struggles could not hold up to western pressures and internal strife.

Today, the former nations of the Soviet Union are not prospering well.  The Balkan nation of Yugolsavia has been the site of two wars with European and U.S. intervention, and the Russians face a continuing revolt in Chechnya.  The common Russian citizen has not reaped the benefits of democracy especially as the entire world economy stumbles.  Terrorism in Russia and the other former states is led by separatists of various flavors and include:

The Chechen region of Russia remains a crucial area of violence for Russia, with an increased level of activity in the last year.  The taking hostage of a school in Belsan appears to have galvanized the Russian government and only promises more violence in retribution on both sides.  See the MILNET report on Terrorism in Russia.

 



South and North Korea ( map )  ( map )

The conflict between South and North Korea is probably familiar to most reading this report.  With a war in the mid 1950s that at times threatened to engulf the world in a new World War, with China and Russia facing off the U.S. and the United Nations who were doing there best to keep Communist expansion from over-running the small nation of South Korea.

Today a tense no-man's land lies between the divided country, with a rabid communist regime in the North fighting their internal struggles including famine, and a frankly frightened government in the South facing their own domestic economic strife.

North Korea

North Korea has hinted at the nuclear card, implying they are only a few years (if not months) away from having the components to producing nuclear weapons.  This and their purchases of components and nuclear power facilities that have dual use, have forced the non-proliferation treaty signatories, led by the U.S. to put pressure on the North to cease and desist. While fiction writers have predicted and spelled out in great details various schemes for a Northern attack on the South, since the war ended, there has been no major attack in either direction across the DMZ.

Decades of nationalistic rhetoric have provided a war of words as well as anxious allies since the two countries agreed to the demilitarized zone between North and South, but have provided few opportunities to resolve the differences.

North Korea today remains one of the last holdout communist nations, practicing a socialist agenda with a very Soviet like government.  It is one of the few cases where we can't find a reason for the conflict based upon culture, language or borders.  Pure politics are at play here with a democratic nation in the South and a socialist-communist country in the North.

As a closed nation, little is known about popular dissent or terrorism that takes place in Korea, since anything negative reported by the state run media is immediately attributed to illegal South Korean dissident criminals and murders.


Recent ongoing claims in regards to nuclear reactor activity have placed North Korea on the IAEA watch list, and while their claims may be exaggerated, the IAEA and the U.N. remain concerned.  North Korea's export of ballistic missiles has been well documented, with their product reaching Iran and Libya, and my very well find their way to Syria and Lebanon.  The world community will continue to isolate North Korea, to the detriment of its people, and MILNET believes this will continue to foster underground hatred of the North Korean government, but also the western nations as well.  The result will be an eventual revolution and ouster of the North Korean government before the end of the decade (85% confidence).  See the MILNET report on North Korea's nuclear program.

South Korea

In the Korea before the Korean War, the deliberate use of violence, including occasional assassination, to express or advance political goals was common among both the right and the left in  Korea after liberation in 1945 and up to the outbreak of the Korean War in June 1950.

Subsequent political violence up to the 1980s, apart from exchanges between police and participants in political demonstrations or rallies, was largely limited to the illegal government use of violence or the threat of violence to suppress dissent and intimidate political opponents. During the presidency of Syngman Rhee (1948-60), for example, the government mobilized the anti-Communist Youth League and members of street gangs to smash facilities of critical newspapers and intimidate opposition candidates for election (see The Syngman Rhee Era, 1946-60 , ch. 1).

The Park government continued illegal police practices, including torture of some dissidents, intellectuals, and even members of the National Assembly, and was often indirectly involved in violence. The Korean Central Intelligence Agency (KCIA) also used various means, including physical threats, to intimidate South Korean journalists in the United States. Such methods continued under Chun, occasionally resulting in the deaths of political defendants under police torture. Police were passively present while hired thugs broke up dissident religious services or union meetings. Under Roh Tae Woo, police handling of political suspects retained some of the illegal violence of earlier times, although improved media freedom also meant greater scrutiny of police misconduct. In contrast with earlier regimes, however, the Roh government permitted prosecution and conviction of police officers and even of military personnel in several cases involving violence during its first year in office.

Public violence against government institutions was rare from the 1950s through the early 1980s. When students overthrew the Syngman Rhee government in April 1960, mobs destroyed the headquarters of Rhee's anti-Communist Youth League. More spontaneous forms of violence often occurred during student protest rallies in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, when small numbers of rock-throwing students at the edges of large rallies clashed with club-wielding riot police, or security forces dispatched martial arts experts and plainclothes officers to beat or arrest demonstrators. Students also occasionally beat up police informants or plainclothes officers. This pattern changed following the killings of students and other demonstrators in Kwangju in May 1980.

The Kwangju incident permanently stained the legitimacy of the Chun government for subsequent generations of student activists, many of whom also blamed the United States for what they believed to be its supportive role. The use of Molotov cocktails by some elements among student demonstrators, both as a counter to increasingly effective police use of tear gas and as a reflection of increased militancy, became a feature of student demonstrations during the 1980s.

In 1988, under the general guidance of the National Association of University Student Councils (Chondaehyop) or the Seoul Area Federation of Student Councils (Soch'ongnyon), small groups of students armed with Molotov cocktails, metal pipes, and occasionally tear gas grenades or improvised incendiary or explosive devices, staged more than two dozen raids on United States diplomatic and military facilities. Students also conducted a similar number of attacks against offices of the government and ruling party and the suburban Seoul residence of former President Chun.

Terrorist groups active in South Korea are mainly student activists such as:

While groups are still active, by the early 1990s, the violence backers fell into disfavor, with students opting to less martial means to attempt to change the government.
 



 

Sierra Leone   (map),  Nigeria   (map),  and Liberia   (map)

There is a long time modern relationship between the three countries Sierra Leone, Nigeria, Liberia and it is not a happy one.  It is almost out of a movie.  Charles Taylor, a convicted criminal in the United States flees to Liberia, resumes an involvement with certain nefarious people and eventually becomes the leader of a criminal terrorist organizations that eventually began to smuggle out diamonds from Sierra Leone and use them to finance their other operations.  While involved in this enterprise, Taylor became the top dog in Liberia. He developed a friendship with the top dog of Nigeria, a friend that Taylor would need someday. Unfortunately for Taylor, the people of the country had a friendly nation  to turn to as well.  The United States (note the Liberian Flag), not to mention some folks in the world community who weren't happy with the effects Taylor's terrorist group RUF was having in Sierra Leone.  Eventually, Taylor was ejected from Liberia and the United Nations, with U.S. Marines parked off shore to watch over security, sent in troops to clean up the mess while Taylor escaped to Nigeria where he remains in some amount of comfort.  To mollify the world community, Nigeria donated troops to the U.N. forces, as they tried to restore order into the totally chaotic country of Liberia, which also faced a crushed economy and a crisis in government, aids, and all the other wonderful problems of a third world nation in Africa.

Without Taylor, the RUF still remains a huge threat to both Sierra Leone and Liberia.  And Sierra Leone wants Taylor to stand trail for his leadership of the RUF and for his share of the cash "earned" from the sale of the nasty diamond smuggling operation.

The U.S. Department of State's annual report Patterns of Global Terrorism says of the RUF:
"The RUF is a loosely organized group--but an effective guerrilla force because of its flexibility and brutal discipline seeking to topple the current government of Sierra Leone and to retain control of the lucrative diamond producing regions of the country. The group funds itself largely through the extraction and sale of diamonds obtained in areas of Sierra Leone that it controls...  The RUF uses guerrilla, criminal, and terror tactics, such as murder, torture, and mutilation, to fight the government, intimidate civilians, and keep UN peacekeeping units in check. In 2000 they held hundreds of UN peace keepers hostage until their release was negotiated, in part, by the RUF's chief sponsor Liberian President Charles Taylor. The group also has been accused of attacks in Guinea at the behest of President Taylor...The UN has identified Libya, Gambia, and Burkina Faso as conduits for weapons and other materiel for the RUF."
The three countries make our list of flashpoints because of the potential for Liberia and Sierra Leone to emerge from recent events in a state of war, which might also involve Nigeria.  U.N. peacekeeping troups appear to be less than effective and while the U.S. appears to feel some small amount of responsibility for Liberia, it is not clear that there is much enthusiasm for putting U.S. troops on the ground.  A civil war in Liberia or a war between Sierra Leone and Liberia can quickly flash out of control before even the U.S. Marines offshore could intervene.  See the MILNET discussion of the Liberian Terrorism situation.



 
Sudan

Sudan, like many of the former British protectorates has not fared well after independence from the British Empire.  The CIA fact book says of Sudan:
"Military regimes favoring Islamic oriented governments have dominated national politics since independence from the UK in 1956. Sudan has been embroiled in a civil war for all but 10 years of this period (1972-82). The wars are rooted in northern economic, political, and social domination of non-Muslim, non-Arab southern Sudanese. Since 1983, the war and and famine related effects have led to more than 2 million deaths and over 4 million people displaced. The ruling regime is a mixture of military elite and an Islamist party that came to power in a 1989 coup. Some northern opposition parties have made common cause with the southern rebels and entered the war as a part of an anti-government alliance. Peace talks gained momentum in 2002-03 with the signing of several accords, including a cease-fire agreement.
"...like many other African nations, they suffer from the standard desert like land problems, inadequate supplies of potable water; wildlife populations threatened by excessive hunting; soil erosion; desertification; and periodic drought."
Given this situation, the fact of a religious and philosophical difference in the population would not bode well for a future without conflict. 

A long civil war has been in progress, a war between Christians and Muslims, with the government siding, apparently, with the Muslims due to its fundamentalist Islamic structure. Sudan also fostered a series of terrorist groups, one of which are blamed for the assassination of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.  Moreover, Sudan has refused to turn over three members of the group who are accused of that murder. 

During the current regime, the government declared two groups organized by the farmers in the Darfur region as terrorists, the Sudan Liberation Movement (S.L.M.) and Justice and Equality Movement (J.E.M.).   However, most analysts believe they have been nothing more than politically vocal in their opposition to the current regime.  The lack of support for the farmers resulted in violence in the region bordering on genocide as the Islamic forces attempt to "put down" the so called terrorists.

In addition, the government of Sudan has figured out, like the Iraqis, how to get rid of the U.N. meddlers, kill their representatives.  And while this pattern has been repeated in a dozen countries over the last two decades, the U.N., naturally has become quite tentative in doing anything about the humans rights violations in the country.  The workers union of the U.N. says they will not return to the area without better security. 

In 2003, the U.S. began a dialog with the Sudanese after two years of pressure.  The effort resulted in some cooperation in the War on Terror, however the situation in Darfur has been a giant setback in the new relationship.  Sudan remains on the list of nations supporting terrorism and sanctions remained levied.

It is also worth noting that when Osama bin Laden was stripped of his Saudi citizenship, he fled to Sudan before finally setting up shop in Afghanistan.

The Sudanese problem in the Darfur region is likely to result in a new civil war in the already decimated country, a civil war that could easily spread to its neighbors as many African conflicts do. 




 

Boiling Cauldron's

Apart from those places already known or perceived to be heated to that rare temperature right before flashover, there are a number of countries where dissent, inter-racial or inter-religious conflict, or even pure economics threaten to boil over, add fuel to the fire, and themselves become conflagration.

This section of the report focuses on:
 


 

 
 

Philippines ( map )

The Philippines, a long time favorite of U.S. Foreign Policy, has emerged as a World trouble-spot, much as each of the English colonies did as they too gained their Independence.  Not remarkably, the Philippines problems began in modern history after the conclusion of World War II.  What is remarkable about the nation is that it is composed of some 1000 islands and many diverse cultures that, for the most part live well together and where inter-island migrations rarely produce violence. 90 percent of the islands' occupants are Christian Filipinos, but countered by large Muslim cultures on Mindanao and northern Luzon.

Having been seized by the Japanese during World War II, the island's people had essentially fled into the hills or suffered the fate of most of the peoples taken by the Japanese during the war -- death or cruel subservience.  However, the government officials knuckled under to Japanese  invasion and attempted to help shield the common Philippine citizen from the Japanese.  A U.S. Major left behind as U.S. troops were finally thrown off the island, pinned on stars and led a guerilla effort that frustrated the Japanese and kept valuable resources tied up throughout the remainder of the war.  The Filipinos, being an Asian race with a long history of conflict, were survivors, however and when McArthur returned to win back the Island from the Japanese, they came out fighting.

The Philippines was a U.S. protectorate for only a shortime  following the war, with some thinking it would become a U.S. territory like Guam had become.  In 1945 the country won its independence despite a weary people and U.S. concerns about security and trade.  However, the country quickly became home to both separatists and a particularly virulent socialist wing.  The largest problem stemmed from resentment for those in the government during the war who were thought of as collaborators with Japanese.  One of these was an economic minister responsible for rice production, who became the first elected President of the independent Philippines on July 1946.

Huk guerilla fighters, having learned their stealthy trade to perfection during the war, vowed to take out the collaborators, especially in central Luzon a pleasant island based on an agrarian life. Several administrations tried to cultivate the Huks over the years, but to no avail.  Finally, with some 11,000 to 15,000 armed Huks impatient with the status quo, their rebellion spreading from Central Luzon to southern Tagalog, northern Luzon, the Visayan Islands, and finally  in Mindanao.  The so called popular revolution withered in 1951, as Huk atrocities soon angered the general population and the Huks eventually dissolved into bandits, murdering and stealing their way of life.  By 1954, with the aid of U.S. advisors, the Huk's were finally marginalized to be ineffective, and the Huk rebellion squeaked to an end.

However, the contention over a territory called Sabah on the island of Borneo with Malaysia and Indonesia led to danger on the northeastern border. Anit-Malayasian sentiment helped elect Ferdinand Marcos to office as President.  After his re-election Marcos' popularity began to waiver and eventually in order to retain his position of power, he declared martial law.  One of his chief rivals was Benigno Aquino, who was arrested and detained under the auspices of the Martial Law.  Serving decades in Marcos' jails, he eventually was allowed to leave the Philippines to seek medical treatment in the U.S.  Leading an opposition party from exile, Acquino continued to be a very popular figure and eventually decided he needed to return.  He was assassinated by government troops as he was being escorted off the plane, marking the last days of Marco's regime.  This eventually led to elections in which Aquino's wife Corazon was elected as President, and the Marcos induced dictatorship was ended.

Today the Philippines continues to be a hot bed of anti-American dissent fostered by the communist party as well as several groups intent upon turning the country upside down.  Anti-American sentiment has been stirred up by the communist separatists and several unfortunate U.S. militarymen's activities and today the U.S. presence is all but gone from the islands.  Communist and terrorist activity have plagued the country in the last two decades as well as volcano that continues to bury the former site of Clark AFB in feet of soot and ash.

As the U.S. is winding down the battle effort in Afghanistan, one of the new efforts appears to be anti-terrorist plans combining U.S. advisors with Philippine Army contingents seeking to destroy terrorist groups in the Philippines, the teamwork being requested by Philippines President Acquino.

The following terrorist groups are active in the Philippines and provide a majority of the tension:


Groups In Surrounding Areas - "Outside" Threats

There are also a number of groups outside the Philippines who also continue to pose a threat, either directly or through sharing of funds and materials.


The 9/11 attacks and the resulting U.S. led War On Terror created the political conditions that allowed the Philippine government to bring in U.S. troops to train their own forces against terrorists and the pursuit of Abu Sayaff in the jungles.  While Philippines still suffers from occasional attacks, the level of activity has been reduced dramatically.

One of the largest concerns remaining is the support and haven for terrorist cells loosely connected to al-Qaeda.
 
 
 


 

Sri Lanka ( map )

Once again, the conflict is ethnic in origination, with both separatist and dogma producing an area ripe with plenty of historical background leading to 20th century conflict including the terrorist preying upon the innocent. Given its history, the small country combines some of the dynamics of the India-Pakistan struggle, thankfully without the nuclear option, as well as separatists problems like Spain which will be discussed later in this report.

The U.S. Department of State site illustrates modern history for Sri Lanka with the following:
 

"Sri Lanka has benefited from the traditions of the rule of law and constitutional government that emerged during 150 years of British colonial rule. At least until the early 1970s, these traditions fostered the development of a political system characterized by broad popular participation in the political process, generally strict observance of legal guarantees of human and civil rights, and an orderly succession of elected governments without the intervention, as has occurred in several neighboring states, of the military. By the early 1980s, however, many observers feared for the future of Sri Lanka's democratic institutions. Some observers contended that constitutional government, rather than curbing the arbitrary use of political power, seemed itself to be shaped by aggressively narrow sectarian interests whose manipulation of the constitutional amendment process excluded large numbers of persons from politics and contributed to ethnic polarization and violence. "
To put it bluntly, Sri Lanka is facing a crisis, a crisis of perhaps their own making.  And quite familiar to reader by now, the seeds of the problem lie in ethnic groups found in the country:  the Sinhalese, the Tamils, the Muslims, and the Burghers.  Language, Culture, and Borders create the dissent in Sri Lanka, less so than race or religion however integrated those two have become with the cultures over the years.
 
As you would expect, the mix of cultures and divisions between different ways of living have produced violence.  There are a number of terrorist groups active in Sri Lanka -- some with India or Pakistani influence or other simply religious based such as Hindus or Muslims -- note too that the Hindu caste system adopted in the country makes for additional friction.
  As in the other countries profiled, Sir Lanka provides a frightening vision into diverse cultures unable to live together.  While not a danger to world peace, certainly Sri Lanka will provide plenty of violent news for years to come.
 
 


 
 


Turkey ( map )

While Turkey is fairly well known for their angry relations with Iraq and the Turkish predicalition for the killings Kurds whenever the opportunity has arisen, there is yet another side to the Turkish problem that promises to boil over and produce horrendous results in the Middle East.

In the last 65 years of the 20th century, Turkish westernization has led to the exploration for oil, natural gas, and other petroleum products, as well as high grade ores of all types.  The result has been alliances with some of the Middle East's most dangerous or wealthy countries as exploitation has begun.  Natural gas and crude will flow through Turkey with sources or destinations in the following countries:
 


Oil and gas pipelines of interest so far are:


One analysis which may indicate the dangers of Turkeys position between the providers and users of oil and gas from these pipelines comes from the Penn State Political Science Department's web site:

"8-27-97  University Park, Pa. -- Russia and Turkey, once rivals in the 18th and 19th centuries, may face off again over vast oil and natural gas reserves in the former Soviet Union."

"Turkey and Russia are already competing for pipelines that would carry oil from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan  and natural gas from Turkmenistan," says Dr. Robert E. Harkavy, professor of political science at Penn State. "The Russians are trying to pressure those countries, all former Soviet republics, into putting the pipelines through Russia, while Azerbaijan prefers that the pipeline go through Turkey. Azerbaijan does not want Russian control of its oil resources." "

The tension comes from a dangerous dip in Turkey's economy, setting fire to the notion that they are having trouble meeting their obligations and therefore putting the pipelines' futures at risk.  The danger is that one or more nations are sourcing or depending upon that oil or natural gas may decide it is strategically imperative that the pipelines be seized, thus putting Turkey not in the middle of a financial gold mine, but in the center of a rapidly filling and expanding mine field.

And naturally, being near the cradle of terrorism for the Middle East, terrorist activities abound in Turkey:
 


 
 

China/Taiwan ( map )
MILNET China Page

Everyone knows that mainland China and the small island offshore called Taiwan are a powder keg.  Unlike most of the countries profiled so far, this conflict is not at all about terrorists.  Staring at each other across the straight of Formosa, it is clear that Taiwan separatists have achieved what many thought impossible -- created a separatist movement, accomplished the separation and now are recognized as a major force in the world's economics.  With aid and support from the western world, primarily the U.S. (Taiwan's largest source of exports), Taiwan's place in the world would be secure if it weren't for the fact that the Chinese across the straight lust for the success and chafe at the thought of the little island nation's success.  Combined with China's penchant for continuing to modernize its military and push harder and harder at their successful and exceedingly more modern nuclear capability, only the India-Pakistan, or Israel-Arab situations are so fraught with danger.

From the prospective of the western world, the problem, of course, is with China.  Never a country with anything approaching a nation with democratic will, China is the strongest communist government left in the world.  With a large enough economy and landscape to survive on its own with little trade, China has never-the-less realized they cannot be 100% isolationists.  And as much as it pains their socialist minds, this means adding profit centers and westernizing key trading areas.  With the lapse of the 100 year lease and return of Hong Kong, China gained an important port for that purpose.  Clearly the world order can use China's desire to become part of the trading party to push for reforms in human rights and hopefully temper China's nasty tendencies which (for centuries as well as  most visible in the last 60  years) which can accurately arrogantly expansionistic and fostering socialist revolution in every nation around.  Nations who have suffered from Chinese "help" in this respect are Korea, and most of the countries surrounding and including Vietnam.  Chinese support to Pakistan, Iraq, and Iran have fueled nuclear status for one, and possibly a second.

Remarkably, terrorist activity in China is not centered on the China/Taiwan issue, but more on the religious rights and resettlement of the Chinese Tibetan tribes and those supporting the Dali Lama.  China brooks no religious opposition, with the outlawing of the Fun Lung party the most recent of centuries of Chinese religious persecution.  As a fully totalitarian government news of terrorism does not escape, yet there are indications Tibetans continue to fight the Chinese using violent means.

China's human rights policies are dismal even for the 19th century, let alone the 20th or 21st.  Slave labor exists in vast numbers with western nations unfortunately not listening to those calling for a boycott of China's relatively inexpensive goods.  Militant U.S. citizens anxious to procure assault weapons in an outpouring of constitutional lust for home weaponry turned a blind eye to ammunition and weapons manufactured by slave labor.  Staunch humans rights activists still bought baby carriages or toys made in China with little western clamor over the trade goods peppered with slave produced products. Baby sales and perhaps human breeding body parts or rare human chemicals is an emerging market centered with "production" facilities in China.

And of course, the arrogant Chinese government with its "we do what we want" attitude in world politics defies the best hopes of liberal politicians who say engagement through economical means will help bring the Chinese into the civilized world.  All you have to do is wait long enough.

In the meantime, China's military budget as a percentage far exceeds any countries percentage today, and we are not talking small numbers.  China's military projects include the license of modern Russian MIG fighter production on the mainland, and use of state-of-the-art fiber optic links between sophisticated computer technologies.

Development of ballistic missiles continues at an alarming rate. Ballistic missiles threaten both in the conventional weapons manner as well as the nuclear.  Thus as China builds better, longer range, and more accurate delivery systems, it hardly bodes well for Taiwan.  If rumors of Chinese cruise missiles are true, then Taiwan is even more danger.  Chinese nuclear armed submarines already have the capability to take nuclear aggression to any spot on the globe.  Converting land launched cruise missiles to conventional, sub launched land attack weapons is almost trivial to a country able in developing military weapons systems as China.  In fact a cruise missile is probably more destabilizing than any further nuclear developments.  Additional missile deployment could be viewed as only significant in their ability to strike more targets at one time, and before retaliation could take place.  Many of the cold war precepts still exist for western nations and their military defenders.  A recent cooperation pact with Russia does little to provide hope for leaders contemplating China's aggressive tendencies.

Below we list the Chinese nuclear military arsenal, most capable of delivering conventional, chemical or biological weapons as well:
 
 

Name  Description  Count  Yield 
Strategic Nuclear Forces Controlled directly by the General Staff 100K
Dongfire 3A (Dong Feng) CSS-2 nuclear capable IRBM 50-100 3.3 MT
Dongfire 4  CSS-3 nuclear capable MRBM 10-20 3.3 MT
Dongfire 5A CSS-4 nuclear cpaable ICBM, deployed 1980 7-10 4-5 MT
Dong Feng 21A CSS-6 IRBM 36 2-300 KT
Dong Feng 31 ICBM ? 1-200 KT
Dong Feng 41 ICBM with MIRV ? MIRV
Xia-Class Submarine SSBN deployed 1981 4
Julang-1/CSS-N-3 1986 SLBM (1700 mi range) 12 300 KT
Julang-1/CSS-N-4 1990s SLBM (8000 mi range)  ? 200 KT
Hong-6 (B-6) long range bomber (3100 mi) 12 1-300 KT
Qian-5 (A-5) short range bomber (400 mi) 30 1 kt to 1 MT
Artillery/ADM/rockets Tactical nuclear weapons 120 1- 20 KT
Silos Armed and hardened Missile Silos intended to survive first strike ? -





Spain ( map )

Totally recognizable to anyone studying history, Spain has not really been on the World's radar scope for centuries.  As a member of NATO, spain has contributed to world peace, and participated in forces that have rotated through those helping fortify the Fulda Gap during the Cold War.  Spain has also contributed in men, machines and finances to the United Nations projects such as policing or observer forces, quietly being a force for peace in the world.

Thus it is strange that we should place Spain in a list of countries that sits near the edge of crisis.  And while some might think we exaggerate, follow the historical background of modern Spain below and you will see we have reason for concern.

From the U.S. Library of Congress Country Study on Spain, we insert the reader into the history lesson following World War II -- It starts with a popular General in the war, General Ferdinand Franco:

"...Whereas there is generally consensus among analysts in designating the regime as authoritarian, there is less agreement concerning the fascist component of Franco's Spain. In its early period, the Francoist state was considered, outside Spain, to be fascist.  The links between Franco's regime and the Roman Catholic Church, as well as the course of international developments, further mitigated the fascist component. Thus, while there was a definite fascist element during the first decade of Franco's rule, most analysts have concluded that early Francoism can more accurately be described as semifascist"
"When Prince Juan Carlos took the oath as king of Spain on November 22, 1975, there was little reason to foresee that he would be the architect of such a dramatic transformation.  More was known of his athletic skills than of his political opinions, and observers predicted that he would be known as "Juan the Brief." "
However, Juan Suarez proved to be an able politician and within a year had, remarkably, pulled off a bloodless coup by creating a huge number of reforms...
"...in December 1976, in accordance with Franco's 1945 Law on Referenda. The Spanish people voted overwhelmingly in favor of reform: about 94 percent of the voters (78 percent of the electorate took part in the referendum) gave their approval. The results of the referendum strengthened the position of the Suarez government and of the king and represented a vindication for those who favored reform from above rather than
revolution. "
What followed Juan Suarez's reforms was a fairly moderate two party system with the far left (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party - Partido Socialista Obrero Espanol--PSOE) and the neo-Franco far right advocates only holding smaller and smaller electoral results at each new election.

However, there remained a long term issue that no leader whether elected or as Monarch had been able to resolve -- the continued threat of Basque Separtists.  To understand them, you need to first understand the demographics of the major ethnic backgrounds in Spain, the Catalans, Galicians, Basques, Andalusians, and the Gypsies - and once again Borders, Language and Culture define the issues *: