Status





MILNET Brief: East of Russia
Status of Former Soviet Satellite Nations, 09/15/2008 (Update 4/01/2009)

The recent Russian attack into Georgia brings immediately to mind the fate of other former Soviet satellite nations.  Most of them, of course, lie in Eastern Europe, and are all that are standing between the "West", the Cold War eupheism for Western Europe and indeed much further West, the North American Continent.

Indeed the NATO alliance recoginzies the North Atlantic nations  (and the Metditerranean Sea) nations that for so long peered across the Iron Curtain toward Russia and its Soviet "companions".

Today, Russia pretends to be less malevolent and indeed for some time may have fooled Western Europe in a benevolent nature.  However, the leaders of Russia recently showed their true colors and much can be learned from the lessions of the Cold War.

Given that background, it may be extremely beneficial to look at the ethnic, religious and current economic conditions of the former Soviet states to understand influences and possible directions the new Russian expansion might take.


The Former Soviet Nations

There are some 25 former Soviet Nations including Russia.  A table at the end of this report lists them all.  The map below clearly shows most all of the former nations -- those that lie on the western border of Russia.



Eastern Europe (CIA Factbook)

Wikipedia continues to become an excellent resource for information on many world topics.  We offer a Wiki map derived from their public (fair use) archives:


Wikipedia Map of Religious Majorities

One notes immediately the relighious backgrounds between Western and Eastern Europe, as well as the huge southern influence of Sunni Muslims and to a lesser extent, Shia Muslims.  With today's concern over Islamic fanatacism that creates Jihadists in what seems nearly every country on the globe, a mass of Islamic adherents certainly matters in our look at the former Soviet nations and THEIR neighbors.

It should be noted that all Western diplomats report that, for the most part, the former Soviet Nations are exceedingly anti-Russian.  Indeed many began requesting inclusion into NATO almost immediately after the fall of the Soviet Union, being extremely desirous of standing between Russia and Western Europe.  When asked why, most former Soviet satellite nation's leaders admitted to not trusting the "new" Russian any more than the "old" Russia.  As many Georgians will tell you today, it is pretty clear why that trust had not been earned, and may never be earned.

Of all the former Soviet satellite nations, only Belarus remains deeply allied with Russia, with a rather helpless alliance in the defenseless nation of Uzbekistan where Russian forces hold that country's energy industry under draconian control.  A third, Moldova, has Russian "peacekeeping" troops in the troublesome region of Transnistria.  All other former Soviet nations are either not aligned with Russia or very likely to side with Western Europe were it not for economic blackmail (oil and gas) from Russia.

The Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuiana, Poland, Romania,  and Slovakia are all members of NATO, and extreme interest in joining NATO is expressed by Georgia, Montenegro, and the Ukraine.   Of the remaining former Soviet satellite nations, most are focusing on improving their economic concidtions so they will meet the economic and governmental policies that would provide both NATO and EU membership upon application.  If nothing else, we should all learn from the former Soviet nations -- they understand the Russians better than any of us.
Eastern Europe
 EU Membership

It should be noted that every nation which has joined NATO since the fall of the Soviet Union, has also joined the European Union, tieing their economic well being to the same alliance that focuses on their combined national security.  This too should be an indicator of Eastern Europe's attitude toward the Russian leadership.


The table below shows some salient facts about all the former Soviet nations, and includes, for completeness, Russia. 

Economic, Ethnic and Religious Situtations of Former Soviet States
Nation
 NATO
 EU
 Issues
 Ethnic Groups
 Religious Groups
Armenia
 No
 No
 High Unemployment (7.1%)
Armenians in Azerbaijan
 Armenian 97.9%, Yezidi(Kurd) 1.3%, Russian 0.5%
 Christian: Apostotic: 94.7%, Other: 4%, Yezidi 1.3%
Azerbaijan
 No
 No
 Corruption, Nagorno-Karabakh secessionists, poverty
 Azeri 90.6%, Dagostani 2.2%, Russian 1.8%,
Armenianan 1.5%, Other 3.9%
 Muslim 93.4%, Russian Orthodox: 2.5%,
Armenian Orthodox: 2.3%
Belarus
 No
 No
 Uemployment 1.6% *1
Repressive Government
 Belarusian 81.2%, Russian 11.4%, Polish 3.9%,
Ukranian 2.4%
 Eastern Orthodox 80%, Other 20%
Bosnia/Herzgovina
 No
 No
 Unemployment 45.5%
 Bosniak 48%, Serb 37.1%, Croat 14.3%,
Other .6%
 Muslim 40%, Orthodox 31%,
Roman Catholoic 15%, other 14%
Czech Republic
 Yes
 Yes
 Unemployment 6.6%
 Czech 90.4%, Moravian 3.7%, Slovak 1.9%,
Other 4%
 Roman Catholic 26.8%, Protestant 2.1%,
other 3.3%
Estonia
 Yes
 Yes
 Unemployment 4.7%
 Estonian 67.9%, Russian 25.6%, Ukranian 2.1%,
Other 4.4%
 Evangelical Lutheran 13.8%, Orthodox 12.8%,
Other 73.6%
Georgia
 App
 App
 Unemployment 13.6%
 Georgian 83.8%, Azeri 6.5%, Armenian 5.7%,
Russian 1.5%, Other 2.5%
 Orthodox Christian 83.9%, Muslim 9.9%,
Other 6.2%
Hungary
 Yes
 Yes
 Unemployment 7.3%
 Hungarian 92.3%, Roma 1.9%, Other 5.8%
 Roman Catholic 51.9%, Calvinist 15.9%,
Lutheran 3%, Greek Catholic 2.6%, Other 25.6%
Kazakhstan
 No
 No
 Unemployment 7.3%, poverty
Radioactive waste, industrial
pollution, Islamic legal system
 Kazakh 53.4%, Russian 30.0%, Ukranian 3.7%,
Uzbek 2.5%, Otehr 10.4%
 Muslim 47%, Russian Orthodox 44%,
Protestant 2%, Other 7%
Kosovo
 No
 No
 Unemployment 43%, KFOR peacekeepers in country and along Serbian border Albanians 88%, Serbs 7%, Other 5%
(Bosniak, Gorani, Roma, Turk, Ashkali, Egyptian)
 Muslim, Serbian Orthodox, Roman Catholic
Kyrgystan
 No
 No
 Unemployment 18%, state owned industry reduced freedom
 Kyrgyz 64.9%, Uzbek 13.8%, Russian 12.5%,
Other 8.8%
 Muslim 75%, Russian Orthodox 20%,
Other 5%
Latvia
 Yes
 Yes
 Unemployment 5.7%, high trade
Deficeit and high inflation
 Latvian 57.7%, Russian 29.5%, Belarusian 4.1%,
Other 8.6%
 Lutheran 19.6%, Orthodox 15.3%,
Other 65.1%
Lithuiania
 Yes
 Yes
 Unemployment 5.7%
 Lithuanian 83.4%, Polish 6.7%, Russian 6.3%,
Other 3.6%
 Roman Catholic 79.0%, Russian Orthodox 4.1%,
Other 16.9%
Macedonia
 No
 No
 Unemployment 35%
air pollution from industry
 Macedonian 64.2%, Albanian 25.2%,
Turkish 3.9%, Roma (Gypsy) 2.7%, Serb 1.8%
 Orthodox 64.7%, Muslim 33.3%,
Other Christian 0.37%, unspec. 1.63%
Moldova
 No
 No
 Unemployment 2.1%, Russian
Troops in Transnistria
 Moldovian/Romanian 79.2%, Ukranian 8.4%,
Russian 5.8%, Other 7.6%
 Eastern Orthodox 96.0%, Jewish 1.5%
Montenegro
 App
 App
 Unemployment 14.7%
 Montenegrin 43%, Serbian 32%, Bosniak 8%,
Albanian 5%, Others 12%
 Orthodox 74.2%, Muslim 17.7%, Catholic 3.5%,
Other 0.6%, unspec. 3%, Atheist 1%
Poland
 Yes
 Yes
 Unemployment 12.8%, air pollution, Hazardous waste disp. Polish 96.7%, German 0.4%, Belarusian 0.1%,
Ukranian 0.1%, Other 2.7%
 Roman Catholic 89.8%, East. Orthodox 1.3%,
Protestant 0.3%, Other 0.3%, unspec. 8.3%
Romania
 Yes
 Yes
 Unemployment 4.1%

 Romanian 89.5%, Hungarian 6.6%, Roma 2.5%,
Ukranian 0.3%, German 0.3%, Russian 0.2%
Turkish 0.2%, other 0.4%
 Eastern Orthodox 86.8%, Protestant 7.5%,
Roman Catholic 4.7%,
Other (mostly Muslim) 0.9%
Russia
 No
 No
 Unemployment 6.2%
Increasingly repressive and expansionist government
 Russian 79.9%, Tatar 3.8%, Ukranian 2.0%,
Other 14.4%
 Russian Orthodox 15-20%, Muslim 10-15%,
Other Christian 2% *2
Serbia
 No
 App
 Unemployment 18.8%
 Serbs 82.9%, Hungarian 3.9%,
Romany(Gypsy) 1.4%, Yugoslav 1.1%,
Bosniaks 1.8%, Montenegrin 0.9%, Other 8%
 Serb Orthodox 85%, Catholoic 5.5%,
Protestant 1.1%, Muslim 3.2%, unspec. 2.6%
Slovakia
 Yes
 Yes
 Unemployment 8.4%
 Slovak 85.8%, Hungarian 9.7%, Roma 1.7%,
Ruthenina/Ukranian 1%
 Roman Catholic 68.9%, Protestant 10.8%,
Greek Catholic 4.1%, Other 3.2%
Tajikstan
 No
 No
 2/3 live in poverty
 Tajik 79.9%, Uzbe3k 15.3%, Russian 1.1%,
Other 3.7%
 Sunni Muslim 85%, Shia Muslim 5%,
Other 10%
Turkmenistan
 No
 No
 Unemployment 60%, misuse of
oil/gas revenue, poverty
 Turkmen 85%, Uzbek 5%, Russian 4%, Other 6%
 Muslim 89%, Eastern Orthodox 9%, Unknown 2%
Ukraine
 App
 App
 Unemployment 2.3% *3,
2X gas pricing paid Russia
 Ukranian 77.8%, Russia 17.3%, Other 4.9%
 Orthodox 76.5%, Greek Catholic 8.0%,
Other 15.4%
Uzbekistan
 No
 No
 Unemployment 20% (*2), repressive  government,  Russian control of energy industry
Uzbek 80.0%, Russian .5%, Tajik 5.0%,
Kazakh 3.0%, Other 6.5%
 Muslim 88% (mostly Sunni),
Eastern Orthodox 9%, Other 3%
Albania *4
 Yes
 No
 13.2%, rising steeply due to near sustinence farming
Albanian 98.6%, Greeks 1.17%, others 0.23% (Vlachs, Roma, Serbs, Montenegrins, Macedonians, Balkan Egyptians, and Bulgarians) Muslim (Sunni and Bektashi) 70%, Albanian Orthodox 20%, and Roman Catholic 10%
Croatia *4
 Yes
 No
 9.6% (2007)
 Croat 89.6%, Serb 4.5%, other 5.9% (including Bosniak, Hungarian, Slovene, Czech, and Roma) (2001 census)
 Catholic 87.8%, Orthodox 4.4%, Slavic Muslim 1.28%, others 6.52%
*1 = Figure is thought to be artificially reduced, real number is believed to be much higher
*2 = No exact figure is avaialble due to lack of public government reporting.
*3 = Unemployed are not registered reducing figures significantly
*4 = Added 04/01/2009, note that Albania and Croatia were not former Russian Satellites, Croatia being part of the former enlarged Yugoslav Federation which broke away from the Soviets in 1948 and Albania which broke away in the early 1960s.
App = indicates the nation has expressed an interest or officially applied
States marked with a pink background are strongly allied with the Russian Government


4/1/2009 Update:

Albania and Croatia were voted to be admitted to NATO on 4/01/2009, with the official membership date to be Friday, 04/03/2009.  Albania broke away from the former Soviet Union in the early 1960s and Croatia, which was part of the larger Yugoslav Federation, broke away with the six members in 1948.


Sources:
  1. CIA Factbook Online, CIA, 2008
  2. Difficult Legacy: Progress and problems in the former Soviet Republics, Associated Press
  3. European Religion Map, Wikipedia
  4. Albania, U.S. State Department Bureau of Public Affairs, undated
  5. Croatia, U.S. State Department Bureau of Public Affairs, 12/2008


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