MILNET Brief
  Israeli Nuclear Program, 3/09/2005

"Foreign Report stated that Israel could develop a sea-based, assured second-strike capability using three Dolphin-class diesel-electric submarines that Germany recently provided to Israel. The submarines, which are to be deployed in 1999, could provide the basis for a submarine-launched nuclear cruise missile force. Defense analysts expect that once Israel has mastered the requisite technologies, it will have the capacity to produce long-range cruise missiles in a short period of time, which could serve as the basis for a second-strike nuclear capability."

- Center for Nonproliferation Studies, December 1998   8

One of the nagging criticisms of U.S. policy in the Middle East is the apparent blind eye turned toward Israeli nuclear weapons capability.  Indeed it doesn't take much research to see the dichotomy between U.S. vitriol against Arab nations and North Korea in respect to nuclear weapons technology and the U.S. silence on Israeli capability.

However, there are good reasons, or one would suppose for this two-faced approach to the subject of nuclear weapons.  One such reason could be the long and well known policy of the Israeli government not wanting to be the first to test nuclear weapons and thus not be the one "first to introduce nuclear weapons into the region." 8

And thus you have the politics of the issue.  By not admitting possession, the Israelis (and presumably the U.S.) attempt to deflect criticism over that capability.  By not testing the capability, they can therefore disavow its existence.

Unfortunately the rational is wishful thinking.  Arab nations surrounding Israel know of the small nation's nuclear capabilities.  Far too much evidence and eye witness testimony has escaped from Israel to effectively counter the suggestion that they not only have the technology, but built-up and ready to go warheads.

This briefing, while perhaps not welcomed by our Israel friends, sets out to calmly declare what is pubic speculation on the Israeli nuclear program.  None of the information is from classified sources, none of it verifiable from official sources. 

That in of itself is interesting  In the three MILNET mirrored DoD reports Proliferation: Threat and Response, the Mideast sections conspicuously leave off mention of Israel, yet there is probably more public information on Israeli programs than there are for those nations which are listed in the report.

Here is an excellent table from the Center for Nonproliferation Studies 10 which is equivalent to one that should have been found in the DoD non-proliferation reports:

Weapons of Mass Destruction Capabilities and Programs1


Nuclear2
  • Sophisticated nuclear weapons program with an estimated 100-200 weapons, which can be delivered by ballistic missiles or aircraft.
  • Nuclear arsenal may include thermonuclear weapons.
  • 150MW heavy water reactor and plutonium reprocessing facility at Dimona, which are not under IAEA safeguards.
  • IRR-1 5MW research reactor at Soreq, under IAEA safeguards.
  • Not a signatory of the NPT; signed the CTBT on 9/25/96.
Chemical3
  • Active weapons program, but not believed to have deployed chemical warheads on ballistic missiles.
  • Production capability for mustard and nerve agents.
  • Signed the CWC on 1/13/93, currently debating its ratification.
Biological4
  • Production capability and extensive research reportedly conducted at the Biological Research Institute in Ness Ziona.
  • No publicly confirmed evidence of production.
  • Not a signatory of the BTWC.
Ballistic missiles5
  • Approximately 50 Jericho-2 missiles with 1,500km range and 1,000kg payload, nuclear warheads may be stored in close proximity.
  • Approximately 50 Jericho-1 missiles with 500km range and 500kg payload.
  • MGM-52 Lance missiles with 130km range and 450kg payload..
  • Shavit space launch vehicle (SLV) with 4,500km range and 150kg to 250kg payload.
  • Unconfirmed reports of Jericho-3 program under development using Shavit technologies, with a range up to 4,800km and 1000kg payload.
  • Developing Next (Shavit upgrade) SLV with unknown range and 300-500kg payload.
Cruise missiles6
  • Harpy lethal unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) with 500km range and unknown payload.
  • Delilah/STAR-1 UAV with 400km range and 50kg payload.
  • Gabriel-4 anti-ship cruise missile with 200km range and 500kg payload.
  • Harpoon anti-ship cruise missile with 120km range and 220kg payload.
Other delivery systems7
  • Fighter and ground-attack aircraft include: 2 F-15I, 6 F-15D, 18 F-15C, 2 F-15B, 36 F-15A, 54 F-16D, 76 F-16C, 8 F-16B, 67 F-16A, 50 F-4E-2000, 25 F-4E, 20 Kfir C7, and 50 A-4N.
  • Ground systems include artillery and rocket launchers.  Also, Popeye-3 land-attack air-launched missile with 350km range and 360kg payload, and Popeye-1 land-attack air-launched missile with 100km range and 395kg payload. 

Here are the footnotes referenced for the above table

  1. This chart summarizes data available from public sources. Precise assessment of a state's capabilities is difficult because most weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs remain secret and cannot be verified independently.

  2. Most public estimates range between 100-200 weapons (e.g., Amy Dockser Marcus, "Growing Dangers: U.S. Drive to Curb Doomsday Weapons In Mideast Is Faltering," Wall Street Journal, 9/6/96, p. A1), but one analyst concludes that "the Israeli nuclear arsenal contains as many as 400 deliverable nuclear and thermonuclear weapons." Harold Hough, "Could Israel's Nuclear Assets Survive A First Strike?" Jane's Intelligence Review, 9/97, p. 410. Israel's nuclear capability is by most accounts quite sophisticated, and may include "intercontinental-range, fractional-orbit-delivered thermonuclear weapons; thermonuclear or boosted nuclear-armed, two-stage, solid-fuel, intermediate-range ballistic missiles with a range of 3,000km; older, less accurate, nuclear-armed, theatre-range, solid-fuel ballistic missiles; air-deliverable, variable-yield, boosted nuclear bombs; artillery-delivered, enhanced-radiation, tactical weapons; and small nuclear demolition charges." Kenneth S. Brower, "A Propensity For Conflict: Potential Scenarios And Outcomes Of War In The Middle East," Jane's Intelligence Review Special Report No. 14, p. 15. See also: Anthony H. Cordesman, "Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East: National Efforts, War Fighting Capabilities, Weapons Lethality, Terrorism, and Arms Control Implications" (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2/98), p. 19.  "Nuclear Forces Guide," Federation of American Scientists, 10/10/97, [Online] http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/facility/index.html. International Atomic Energy Agency, "Situation on 31 December 1996 with respect to the conclusion of safeguards agreements between the Agency and non-nuclear-weapon States in connection with the NPT," [Online] http://www.iaea.or.at/worldatom/program/safeguards/96tables/safenpt.html. Nuclear Engineering International, 1998 World Nuclear Industry Handbook (Essex, UK: Wilmington Publishing Ltd, 1998), p. 114.

  3. Dana Priest, "In U.S. Weapons Crusade, Allies Get Scant Mention," Washington Post, 4/14/98, p. 1. Cordesman p. 18-19. Steve Rodan, "Bitter Choices: Israel's Chemical Dilemma," Jerusalem Post, 8/18/97, [Online] http://www.jpost.co.il. David Makovsky, "Israel Must Ratify Chemical Treaty," Ha'aretz, 1/8/98, [Online] http://www3.haaretz.co.il/eng.

  4. Cordesman, p. 19. "Chemical and Biological Weapons Facilities," Federation of American Scientists, 10/10/97, [Online] http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/facility/cbw.htm. P.R. Kumaraswamy, "Marcus Klingberg and Israel's �Biological Option,'" Middle East International, 8/16/96, pp. 21-22.  Zafir Rinat, "Nerve Gas Antidote in Works," Ha'aretz, 12/12/97, [Online] http://www3.haaretz.co.il/eng.  Edna Homa Hunt, "Israel's Biological and Chemical Research and Development � Potential Menace at Home and Abroad," Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, 4/98, pp. 84, 93.  Liat Collins, "Bio Institute to Come Under Close Inspection," Jerusalem Post, 2/19/97, [Online] http://www.jpost.co.il.  P.R. Kumaraswamy, "Has Israel Kept its BW Options Open?" Jane's Intelligence Review, 3/98, p. 22.

  5. "Missile and Space Launch Capabilities of Selected Countries," The Nonproliferation Review, forthcoming 1998.  Duncan Lennox, ed., "Country Inventory � In Service," "In-Service Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missiles," "In Service Short-Range Ballistic Missiles," "Shavit," and "Offensive Weapons - Unclassified Projects, Israel," Jane's Strategic Weapons Systems Issue 24, 5/97. Cordesman, p.18. "Missile Master Table: Finland-Japan," Centre for Defence and International Security Studies, [Online] http://www.cdiss.org/master2.htm.  Directorate of Space Programs, US Air Force Acquisitions, "Shavit," [Online] http://www.safaq.af.hq.mil/aqs/vehicle/shavit.htm.  Pierre Langereux, "Dassault Lifts the Lid on the Jericho Missile Story," Air & Cosmos/Aviation International, no. 1590, 12/6/96, p. 36.  Shawn L. Twing, "Israel Seeks US Permission to Launch Rockets from NASA Facility in Virginia," Washington Report On Middle East Affairs, 4-5/97, pp. 29, 85.  Tim Furniss, "Satellite Launcher Directory," Flight International, 12/10-16/97, pp. 28-34.  Foreign Defense Assistance and Defense Export Organization (SIBAT), Israel's Defense Sales Directory, 1997/98 (Tel Aviv: Ministry of Defense, 1997), p. 84.

  6. Lennox. Cordesman, p. 18. CDISS.  Lennox, "Offensive Weapons - Unclassified Projects, Israel."  SIBAT, pp. 53, 55, 57.  Israel possesses all three versions of the US-made Harpoon cruise missile, which are designed for launch from ships (AGM 84A), submarines (RGM 84A), and aircraft (UGM 84A).

  7. The Military Balance 1997/98 (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1997), pp. 129-130.  Arieh O'Sullivan, "New F-15I Warplanes Extend Israel's Reach," The Jerusalem Post [Online] http://www.jpost.co.il/. Ze'ev Schiff, "F-15Is Are Not The Complete Answer To The Iran Threat," Ha'aretz, 1/20/98, [Online] http://www3.haaretz.co.il/.


Israeli Nuclear Chronology 15

1949 - Weizmann Institute of Science begins study of nuclear weapons technology with the visit of French nuclear physicist  Francis Perrin to Ernst David Bergmann the then head of the Chemistry Division followed by a visit by Israeli scientists to the French nuclear research facility at Saclay.  Soon afterward a joint development effort was begun in Israel.

1950s - French and Israeli physicists exchanged information on their various programs with each having reprentatives travelling to respective research facilities to view and discuss results on a regular basis.

1956 - In the weeks prior to the Israeli operation against the Egyptians known as the Suez Crisis, the Israelis approached the French on building the first research reactor in Israel.  By September  the agreement was struck.  In November after France withdrew its military support of the Sanai operation, it is believed that Simon Peres was able to secure from the French a pledge to help Israel build a nuclear deterrent.

1958 - Ground broken for the build of the Dimona 24 MW Reactor with heavy water purchased from Norway, obstensibly for peaceful purposes.

1959 - U.S. announces that it believes the Israelis are building a secret nuclear facility.

1962 - Dimona reactor goes critical and French work on the Plutonium facility begins.

1964 or 1965 - Plutonium facility is completed and Plutonium base material begins to collect, while the Plutonium facility lies dormant for some time.

1965 - Plutonium extraction begins and it is believed that enough is extracted to produce at least one fission weapon.

1967 - Supposedly, there is nuclear information sharing between Israel and South Africa, which continued well into the 1980s.

1968 - Israel begins weapons production program

1971 - Isreal purchases Krytons otherwise known as nuclear triggers.  To weapons designers watching Israeli activities, this indicates they are ready to assemble their first useable weapon.

1973 - It is believed that Israel placed Jerico Missile and aircraft sites on nuclear alert during the scary first hours of the Yom Kippur War with Egypt and Syria.  Upon learning of the alert, U.S. began to provide a resupply in order to prevent Israel from launching a nuclear strike [speculation? from the Nuclear Weapons Archive history author (unknown) - MILNET ]

1979 - A nuclear test is believed to have been conducted by South Africa in the Southern Indian Ocean, and that this was a joint operation between South Africa and Israel.

1991 - It is believed that Israel went on nuclear alert  in January of 1991 when Iraqi SCUD missiles targeted and fell on Israeli cities.  The 40+ day war to liberate Kuwait by U.S. led Coalition held a fragile agreement between Israel and the U.S., however it is widely believed that if Iraq used a chemical weapon against Israel, they would have launched a nuclear strike in retaliation.


Facilities
Map and Table Derived from Global Security.com's Excellent Presentation 16

Locale Nuclear CBW Missile
Be'er Yaakov

Dimona

Eilabun

Haifa - RAFAEL
Haifa - Kishon Port
Mishor Rotem

Nes Ziyyona

Nevatim


Palmachim

Sedot Mikha
Soreq

Tel Aviv


Tel Nof

Tirosh

Yodefat

Zachariah
U/I Facility Near Ramla

U/I Test Site

Rafah Military Garrison



 Dimona -   Photo taken by U.S. Corona satellite in September of 1971 9



Sources/Further Reading:
  1. Israel's Nuclear posture Review, Michael Barletta and Christina Ellington, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, December 1998
  2. Israel's Nuclear Weapons Program,  The Nuclear Weapon Archive, 12/10/1997
  3. Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East - Israel, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, undated
  4. Israel's Nuclear Weapons, The Federation of American Scientists, undated
  5. U.S. Policy on Israel's Nuclear Program, The Jewish Virtual Libary, July 28, 1966
  6. US-Israel Memorandum of Agreement, Center For Nonproliferation Studies, 10/31/1998
  7. IAEA Press for Nuclear Inspections of Israeli Facility, World Tribune, 2/3/2004, found on Non Violence.org
  8. Essay on The Israeli Nuclear Weapons Program History, The Nuclear Weapon Archive, 12/10/1997
  9. Israel's Special Weapons Facilities, Global Security.com, undated
  10. Middle East Balance, Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, Major Arm Country and Zone, Qualitative Trends,  Israel and the Ring of Arab Nations, Anthony H. Cordesman, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2/24/1999



© Copyright 2005, Michael G. Crawford for MILNET