MILNET Opinion
 North Korea Threatening Again, Update 10/09/2006

Updates

My father's generation would say, "The fruit of appeasement blossoms with ugly regularity." 

What's that mean?  Simply put, if you appease a bully, he'll just continue to whack you about the head.  North Korea has been playing this high stakes game of nuclear blackmail for decades and we, head bowed, continue to let them do it.

The problem is certainly not our hardline policy with North Korea. Our policy simply isn't hardline enough. And we certainly aren't pursuing the last decade's policy of "don't look and you won't see anything you don't like." In fact, we are seeing the fruits of the last decade's "ignore it and it will go away" policy.  The United Nations, that most efficient body of debaters has gone "fully nuclear" in their sternest response.  They are going to beat North Korea to death with a handful of mealy mouth threats that have no meaning and certainly cause great mirth in Pyongyang.  North Korea's leaders are surely rolling on the floor, tears of mirth streaming from their eyes.

The problem is that after decades of do nothing finger and tongue wagging, the North Koreans have once again trotted out the message that works time and time again.  "Give us what we want or we will <fill in the blank>".  Of course the stakes in nuclear blackmail are enormous and easily taken to the next step. 

Recall a few years ago when North Korea was caught with their hand in the nuclear cookie jar.  "Oh yeah, we've been secretly placing ourselves in position to refuel that reactor we said was for peaceful uses only, and oh by the way we are ready to process SOME MORE fuel rods into weapons grade material."  Oops. 

The crisis didn't begin only a few years ago, the North Koreans have been at this for quite awhile.  The last decade has been a great indicator of how disingenuous the North Korean leadership can be.  (See the MILNET Briefing,  North Korean Crisis - Chronology of  Key North Korean Events 1994-2004).   Only a few years ago, the North Koreans said, "We'll stop producing weapon's grade material if you give us what we want."  And just like ten years ago, the U.S. fell right back into the same trap while making stern and tough statements, all of which have done nothing but allow for delay.

Thus it was no surprise to hear midway through June of 2004 that the North Koreans have a new message for us.  "If you don't give us what we want, we'll conduct our nuclear test."

What?  We've gone from "we won't produce weapons grade material" to "we won't set off our nuke?"  Duh, we can only guess they have never stopped their nuclear development program.  Even the most intellectually challenged can figure out that all the North Koreans have been doing is stalling for time.  And, sadly, doing so quite successfully. 


Nightmare Coming True

And then on September 27, 2004, a  North Korean Minister reported that North Korea hd  reprocessed the enriched uranium from 8,000 spent nuclear fuel rods and used it for weapons to serve as a deterrent against a possible nuclear strike by the United States.  While the Minister's statement could easily just be more brinkmanhip in order to blackmail more money out of the west (a very highly likely possibility), the fact is that he could have been telling the truth. If not today, then when?  We won't know until the big bang.

What should have been done back in '94 is what we should do now.  Send over a squadron of B-2s and level the freakin' plants to the ground, and tell Pyongyang that if they set off a test nuke we will also sic the B-2s on their glorious leader's office building, his home, and then the homes of his sister, brother, and cousins.  Not to mention his General's, Colonels, and on down the line.  Then if they don't get the message, the North Korean people will be watching their very own capital on T.V. looking just like downtown Baghdad last year.  Shock and awe part Duex.

The problem is that we are such nice guys we forget the fact, proven time and time again, that the bad guys just laugh at us while we are being nice guys and then slip the knife into us just below the ribs.  When are we ever going to learn to tell the peace-niks to "go stuff it" and quit fooling around with the useless U.N.?  When are we going to stop trying to cater to the appeasers and quit playing the squeaky clean nice guy?  We are not nice guys when it comes to nuclear blackmail. All other polices have failed each and every time.  Every time!  It's time for us to be real bastards when faced with nuclear blackmail.  It's not like Pyongpang is denying their intentions. 

When G.W. said there was an axis of evil, the appeasers went ballistic.  Shrill screams of "how dare you" as if the President had created the problem his predecessor all but ignored.  As if "telling it like it is" was okay for the hippies in the 60s but suddenly unacceptable in our all too politically correct world.

The end of G.W.'s "Axis of Evil" speech should have simply named the tune. "You will dismantle that reactor and stop shipping your missiles TODAY or we will do it for you." 

But of course, pandering to the hand wringers has brought us to where we are today.  Please Mr. President, it's time to take off the kid gloves.  We gave Colin Powell the chance to do his magic with diplomacy. You and he are to be applauded for making the valiant effort.  And we're sure Colin did his best.  We doubt anyone could have done better. 

But the North Koreans are not part of the civilized world, and civilized behavior is just a sign of weakness to them.  Frankly, they are taking advantage of you and your Secretary of State.  It's time to end their blackmail, decisively and with great predjudice.  Do you have the Cajones to do it before the election?

Updates:

10/09/2006:  North Korea claims to have performed their first test of a nuclear weapon, and seismic records indicate the claim may in fact be true, with a yield up to 4 kilotons.  The test culminates a 12 year diplomatic effort that was doomed to failure (as predicted by MILNET).  The U.N., of course will wag their tongues and tsk, tsk, however, having achieved this dubuios fame, North Korea will now attempt to capitalize on the event at the detriment of stability in the region.  Past history suggests South Korea at least will now try to achive parity.

10/06/2006:  North Korea says they will perform a nuclear test to prove they are a nuclear power.  Japan and South Korea, as expected are up in arms and tensions are high.  Reportedly, the U.S. has dispatched an RC-135 to do air sampling along the border and the U.N., as usual is "seized" with the crisis and no one there is doing anything. 


5/11/2005:  North Korea announced they had begun to remove fuel rods from their breeder reactor. The rods could easily be moved to the reprocessing facility located nearby, and thus be used to produce even more plutonium suitable for building additional nuclear weapons. 8





For detailed facts on the North Korean Nuclear crisis, see the MILNET Briefing, North Korean Crisis - Chronology of  Key North Korean Events 1994-2004.

Sources:
  1. Secretary Armitage Interview Transcript On North Korea, 6/29/2004
  2. Minister:  North Korea has Nuclear Deterrent, AP on Yahoo, 9/27/2004
Further Reading / Similar Topics:
  1. North Korean Crisis - Chronology of  Key North Korean Events 1994-2004. MILNET, September 2004
  2. Nuclear War Prevention, MILNET, September 28, 2004
  3. Iranian Death March, MILNET, September 3, 2004
  4. Iranian Nuclear Technology, MILNET, September 21, 2004
  5. The Terrorist Bomb, MILNET, September 21, 2004
  6. The North Korean Threat, MILNET, February 2002 thru December 2002
  7. Dismantling North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Program, Colonel David Bishop, U.S. Army War College, 2005 (MILNET Mirror)
  8. Alarm Bells Ring Over North Korea's Nuclear Activities, Tony Eastley, ABC News, 5/12/2005
  9. U.S. Aircraft Keeps Watch for N. Korean Nuke Test, Fox News Online, 10/05/2006
  10. U.S. Official:  North Korea Conducted Nuclear Test, Fox News Online, 10/09/2006
© Copyright, 2004, 2005, Michael G. Crawford