MILNET Brief Nuclear War Prevention Plan, September 27, 2004
Note: This briefing includes conjecture and speculation as
well as MILNET opinions. However, maps and tactics are compiled
from study of factual accounts of U.S. forces tactics found throught
the public domain, and contains no classified information.
As we have seen in a number of instances, the U.S. attack
on Iran or North Korea will have some interesting indicators. We
aren't worried about "tipping off" the enemy to future U.S.
operations. The techniques are now well known and a part of
modern air warfare.
The first tactic comes a week or two -- maybe 12 days, maybe 14 --
before the actual attack begins. It's the jamming. For
instance in Iran's case, the U.S. flies in special radio jamming units
mounted on Humvees or perhaps they simply drive out of Baghdad staging
areas. Lining up along Iran's western border at night, U.S. force
don't have to worry about being observed, they own the skies both in
and out of atmosphere. Maybe spec ops warriors go in first to ensure
there are no spies lurking around to tip off Iranian battlefield
missile batteries to the presence of U.S. vehicles. Hiding under
excellent desert camo that also is designed to defeat infrared
signature should the Iranians have some form of aerial recon (which
they don't), the jamming units start broadcasting.
Radar scopes in Iran start showing "fenceposts". The clutter
masks anything else that might appear. Then comes the false
returns. Iranian radar is very predictable, in fact, the U.S. can send
out signals that look like returns from incoming aircraft. On
again off again ghost attacks will jangle the nerves of Iranian
defenders for 7 to 12 days. Sometimes the jamming will stop,
scopes will clear up. At random intervals, the jamming will start
again. Sometimes it will start precisely on a time hack -- 15 minutes
after the hour, or the next cycle might start at 20 minutes. Then
"silence". Then at an odd minute on the clock it will start up
again, this time with increased intensity and then stop suddenly.
No pattern, nothing predictable. Maybe a few days will pass with
no jamming. Then the whole show starts up again.
The purpose? To accustom the Iranian defense network to blanket jamming
and perhaps to force them to bring up so called jam proof radar.
Any radar that comes up will be catalogued by position, type, and
unique electromagnetic spectrum signature. This data will go into
the cruise missile database.
Then on H hour, when the jamming is indistinguishable from any other
day or hour, cruise missiles will be fired from submarines and
destroyers. In the case of Iran, probably from the Persian Gulf
arcing North and Northeast. In the case of Korea, from the Sea of Japan
arcing west. In either case, the cruise missiles will be flying
at very low altitudes, winding along, undetected except perhaps by a
farmer or two, on their way to nuclear facilities and air defense
sites. Launches will be timed precisely, so that at H + Attack
Time, missiles will fall on separate sites simultaneously. Air defense
sites attacked will include air defense facilities such as SAM
sites and radar equipment. Perhaps a few communications centers
will be destroyed as well. Within a few minutes, the precision
strikes will be over. Above ground targets will be
shattered.
Next "packages" of wild weasels will swoop in and perform the deadly
anti-radar dance, begging Iranian or North Korean radar units to "light
up" and "paint" the incoming aircraft. It will be the last
efforts at self defense they make.. Anti-radiation missiles will
arc off the wings of the wild weasels and shortly the majority of the
radar units along the path into Iran or North Korea will be converted
into small chunks of debris. Oh, a few will not light up, some
SAM sites will wisely remain "quiet".
The Wild Weasels will turn away, and then the next packages will
arrive, a few interceptors in the form of F-15s. Once they take
the high perch and look down with their sensitive radar to ensure no
hostile aircraft have taken to the air, the F-16s will roll in on
nuclear facilities targeted for destruction. Wild Weasels will
reappear hoping for the silent sites to light up now. Meanwhile
the F-16 bombs will dig away at the surface features exposing enough of
the tops of reinforcement to prepare for the third wave.
The third wave will be for places like Natanz in Iran, hardened
underground bunker like facilities. The F-16s bombs will have
etched away at the tops of the bunker facilities, and then B-2s will
sweep in virtually undetectable and lay down bunker buster bombs to pry
open the tops of the reinforced underground facilities like can
openers.
The fourth package will be B-1Bs and B-52s carrying the small
version of the MOAB, air-fuel bombs that create huge pressure
waves and extreme heat. These will cleanse the area of most of
the contaminants as well as seep into every air duct and orifice,
eliminating research students and operators alike, ensuring that for at
least five more years, no bomb material will get processed let alone
made ready for integration into a nuclear weapon.
Finally, a last package will sweep in, F-15s and perhaps F-117s setup
to do battle damage assessment and if necessary finish off any target
that has survived.
<>
Attack on Iraq
Attack on North Korea
In less than a few hours, Iran or North Korea will no longer have a
nuclear production capability. All they will have left are the handful
of nuclear weapons they might have loaded but not tested.
The message will go out. 100 miles from Iranian or North Korean
borders are no fly zones. You take to the air there, and you will
be shot out of the skies. You launch any missile anywhere in your
country and your capital will be carpet bombed until nothing stands but
rubble. If armor moves out of their revetments, not only will it be
destroyed but every other armor park will be destroyed as well.
This "sanction" will be enforced until you convince U.S. inspectors you
do not have nuclear weapons, and that you have abandoned nuclear
facilities.
The message will also state, "you don't like it? Tough. We
warned you, we played nice-nice with diplomacy, but the time for
diplomacy is over."
The message will state that visible signs of ejection of terrorists
from Iran and a new government in North Korea will take place in 30
days or we will start carpet bombing your capitals. You don't
like it? Too bad, we warned you. No more nice guy.
And within 72 hours France, Russia, and maybe even Germany along with
all the Arab states will be screaming at the United Nations. And
for once, our ambassador to the U.N. will shake his head, stand up, and
walk out after saying quietly, "We warned you. We played
nice-nice, and we put up with your endless debates. No
more. You ARE irrelevant" and then walk out.
Now of course the whole scenario is just hawkish fantasy. The
left will scream that the idea is reprehensible, irresponsible and
mad. We are fully prepared to hear that "this plan is foolhardy, naive,
and reckless, inciting a nuclear war rather than preventing one."
Yet, when a North Korean missile armed with an Iranian
nuclear weapon falls on Israel, will words like reprehensible,
irresponsible or mad do those killed any good? No, not at
all. When a terrorist smuggles in a 2KT nuclear device on a
container ship and destroys a U.S. port, will the shrill voices of
appeasers comfort the families of the dead. No, not at all.
This is in fact, the product of cold war thinking. When nations
can force their will on other nations. An act of war usually has
a response attached to it. In the case of Iran, it is thought, by
"responsible" people, that the obvious retaliation to an Iran attack is
attacks on U.S. interest in the Persian Gulf Region including allies
such as Israel (always Israel), Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, etc.
The response to an attack on North Korea would yield attacks on South
Korea (always South Korea), Japan, and perhaps the Philippines.
But what if attacks at this time expose the huge bluff. Can Iran
really mount an effective military strike in the Middle East? Can North
Korea really run across the border into South Korea with
impunity? Some analysts do not believe so. Either country
may lack the military strength to cross their border, let alone attack
in symettrical fashion. Indeed, their only effective tool for policy is
the one they both have been using for decades. Terrorism. Note however,
that both countries have already "emptied their guns" of their
terrorist threat. There is little more that they can do.
Iran's control over terrorists is already focused in Israel and Iraq
and with an eye already constantly looking for ways to attack U.S.
interests. They've shot their bolt.
The only likely response for Iran is launching conventional
missles. The question is would Iran use the last remaining
effective military force to plink at U.S. interests, thereby elminating
their ability to retaliate for more valuable targets. Like in
chess, would Iran sacrifice their bishops and rooks early in the game
and then have nothing to fight off follow on attacks? Again some
analysts do not believe they would. A more likely scenario is for
Iran to bide their time, wait for the right moment to use
asymmetrical forces -- terrorists, to strike from under the cover of
deniability. Indeed, Iran is already an expert in that area.
However it is also very likely that by waiting, the current mad regime
will have been replaced. Moderate elements in Iran are already
angry over the continued development of nuclear weapons. Huge
attacks on those facilities might result in ejection of the clerics and
the formation of a more moderate, concilliatory government ready to do
whatever it takes to prevent further attacks on their ability to defend
their nation. All that is required is to leave a) some high value
targets which are not attacked and are worth protecting through
negotiation, and b) make it clear that the nation itself is not under
attack only the facilities and those responsible for them. In
other words, the attacks are part of a violent inducement to a change
in government.
In the case of North Korea, fewer analysts believe rational thinking
takes place in the North Korean capital. In fact, a wide majority
of analysts believe that the North Korean leadership would seize the
attacks as an excuse to roll south and take Seoul. These same analysts
also believe neither South Korea or the U.S. could stop the wave.
However, again, a few analysts scoff at the idea of a North Korean
reponse south. Once troops are committed in that direction, taking the
capital of North Korea becomes childplay and the leaders of North
Korea, if anything besides being mad, are desperate to save their own
hides. Cutting off the head of the North Korean snake would kill the
southern bound forces in their tracks, with a large majority opting to
return home or melt into the countryside on the southern side of the
border. At that point, the fragile North Korean government would
collapse and South Korea would only need beef up its border patrol to
keep a flood of North Korean refugees from fleeing South to get
fed. At that point, the United Nations could be called in to
deliver aid. If the U.N. can possibly manage that on their own.
War and the machines of war exist for one reason. Nations which cannot
settle their differences diplomatically, have no choice but to change
the will and behavior of their foe by force. Our civilized notions tell us that
there are special circumstances where this choice of violence is
acceptable. When a nation faces catastrophic attack in the
foreseeable future, it must take action.
We have given Iran and North Korea more than ample opportunity to "do
the right thing". The time for talking is over. Those two
countries should take heed. When MILNET wrote a similar article in
regards to Iraq, the prediction was tremendously accurate. Yes, more
diplomacy was ongoing, however, the steps to war were beginning and
culminated in swift attack when all was prepared and useless cover
diplomacy came to an end.
The only thing that will save Iran and North Korea from paying for
their huge miscalculation is the U.S. elections. However, from
November 4 on, they will be living on borrowed time. Count on
it. We are.
