MILNET Brief:
Pakistan Political Parties, 02/11/2008 (Update 4/17/2008)




Pakistan's 4 Provinces (1=Balochistan, 2=Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP), 3=Punjab, 4=Sindh)
Areas marked 5-6 are Territories, 7-8 are government administered portions of Kashmir.

There are a number of major and active political parties in Pakistan. This briefing will identify the general principles or platforms for these and several of the noteworthy minor parties.  The total list for all the Pakistani political parties is in the 40s, ours is much less.  There have literally been 100s of parties in Pakistan since it's independence from India in 1942.

It should be noted that in all cases, the parties are thought, by some, to be "cemented" together by the commonality of the Islamic ideology, while others believe the religious ideals serve to divide the nation, essentially due to the diversity of precept and differing interpretations of the religion.  Thus this also alienates regional groups from each other.  And of course there are ancient tribal issues, much like that found in Africa, with the inevitable Muslim slant.  Never-the-less, there are few if any Pakistani political parties that don't profess to some belief in Islam.  Indeed some of the political parties are actually religious groups such as the Pakistani Clergy and the Assembly of Islamic Clergy.  Thus religious sect and regional ties have strong meaning for each of the parties.  After this table, see the current seats held in the Parliament in Pakistan to get an indication of the major parties in play.  It should be noted that the 1988 elections recognized two minorities in Pakistan by appointing 30 seats to non-elected members; 10 women and 10 non-Muslims.  The appointments were made by vote by the elected members.

It appears, to even a brief analysis, that the Pakistani tend to create a new political party over even the slightest differences.  Indeed every few election cycles, parties disappear and new ones are formed.  For instance, several small parties won seats in the 1988 legislative elections, but did not appear to win seats in the 2000 elections.  Or if they did, they were reformulated (and renamed) parties of the original.

The names of the parties change at whim as well.  The late Benazir Bhutto's party has gone through at least one party name change from the People's Party of Pakistan, to the People's Party of Pakistan Parliamentarians.

Many parties bear the same name, but are said to be splinter groups of a former, perhaps larger group.  Examples are the Pakistan Muslim League, which has had in the last two decades some five or more derivations, and today can still be thought of as of at least two if not three variants (PML-J, PML-Q, and PML-N).  Typically these derivations occur when popular (and perhaps slightly egotistical) leaders have differences with the party leadership and strike out on their own.  The PML underwent a consolidation of a large number of its derivatives and other like-minded parties in 2004, however, 2 months later one of the leaders again split from the mainstream PML again (Pir Pigaro and the Pakistan Muslim League - Functional -- PML-F).  It should also be noted that the origins of the PML are in the Muslim League which itself split up into two parties just before being disbanded in 1962. 

While it might appear that Pakistani are becoming more liberal, especially in terms of women's rights, we should point out that a Pakistani woman's right activist, Zilla Human Usman, who was the Minister for Social Welfare in Punjab Province, was gunned down just before delivering a speech to her party activists.  The attack occurred in Gujranwala, 120 miles southeast of Islamabad.  She was a member of the PML-Q.  The killing was seen by many as a failure of the Musharraf government to curb Islamic extremism in Pakistan.

Within six months Musharraf, probably inspired by continued pressure from the West began a crackdown on those extremists, setting off waves of violence as well as a rise in dissatisfaction by nearly all political parties but the PML-Q which are strong supporters of Musharraf.  In response to the escalating violence, Musharraf declared martial law and suspended the constitution.

On October 02, 2007, 162 members of the Pakistani Parliament tendered their resignations, forcing Perez Musharraf to set an election date in February, 2008. 
In the wake of Benazir Bhutto's assassination (Presidential Candidate for the PPPP) in December of 2007, the fate of the elections was in turmoil, with waves of violence already critical, growing worse.  Some believe that Musharraf will be "forced" to again declare martial law and put off elections, but as of 2/10/2008, the elections are still slated to be held.

In late January and early February of 2008, the ANP was the victim of a number of attacks on its rally and provincial candidates, with dozens killed in one week in February.











Acro
 Name
 Platform/Principles
 Leader
 Size
AIC
 Assembly of Islamic Clergy
 Primarily a religious party, strong support in Karachi region, also known under its arabic language initials Jamiat Ul-Ulema-e-Islam (JUI).  The party won 8 elected seats and 1 of that Parliament's appointed Women's seat was awarded to the AIC as well.
 ?
 Small
ANP
 Awami National Party
 Active in the 1988 Legislative Elections when it gained 3 of 237 seats.  Note that some 20 seats in that Parliament were not elected, but chosen by the legislature to be filled by women, however none of those women's seats were filled by members of the ANP.
 ?
 Small
APC
 Assembly of Pakistani Clergy
 Primarily a religious party, strong support in the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP)
 ?
 Small
APDM
 All Parties Democratic Movement
 Punjab province political party based in Lahore, Pakistan and has strong support in Karachi.
 ?
 Small
BNA
 Baluchistan National Alliance
 Active in the 1988 Legislative Elections when it gained 2 of 237 seats.  Note that some 20 seats  in that Parliment were not elected, but chosen by the legislature to be filled by women.
?
 Small
BNM
 Balochistan National Movement
 Believes in the right for national autonomy for the peoples of Balochistan (essentially the Pukhtun (Pushtan) tribal areas in Balochistan Province
 ?
 Small
BNP
 Balochistan National Party
 There are two derivatives of this party, Balochistan National Party - Awami and Balochistan National Party - Mengal.  Nationalist party focusing on the province of Balochistan.
 ?
 Small
BSU
 Balochistan Students Union
 Primarily ethnic, represents students and "free thinkers" in the province of Balochistan
 ?
 Small
CML
 Council Muslim League
 Formed from former members of  the Muslim League in the 1970s
 ?
 Small
FAMP
 Farooq Leghan Milat Party
 See Milat Party below
 Farooq Leghan
 Small
IA
 Islamic Assembly
 Popular among urban lower-middle class, founded in 1941
 ?
 Small
IDA
 Islamic Democratic Alliance
 Took over administration of Punjab Province in 1988, a small regional alliance.  Also known under its arabic language initials Islam-e-Jamhoori Ittehad -- IJI.  The IJI/IDA gained some 55 seats in the Parliment in 1988 but appears to have been absent in the 2002/2003 elections.
 ?
 Small
May be disbanded or merged
IJI
 Islam-e-Jamhoori Ittehad
 Also known as the Islamic Democratic Alliance -- IDA, the translation of the arabic name. See IDA
 ?
 Small
JUI
 Jamiat Ul-Ulema-e-Islam
Also known as the Assembly of Islamic Clergy -- AIC, the translation of the arabic name.  See AIC
 ?
 Small
ML
 Muslim League
 Split in 1962, see Pakistan Muslim League and Council Muslim League, and the Islamic Democratic Alliance, all but disappeared in 1970, but re-emergedin 1985 as the central/cruicial component of the Islamic Democratic Alliance -- IDA.
 Mohammed Ali Jinnah
 Disbanded
see PML
MMA
 Muttahida Majlis-e-Amat, aka
Muttahida Majils-e-Amal
 A coalition of six religious focused parties (some listed in this briefing): Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F) (Assembly of Islamic Clergy, Fazl-ur-Rahman Group), Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (S) (Assembly of Islamic Clergy, Sami-ul-Haq Group) Jamiat Ulema-e-Pakistan (Assembly of Pakistani Clergy), Jamiat-e-Ahl-e-Hadith.  This alliance forms the regional government for the province of Northwest Fortier Province (NWFP) where the majority of violence in Pakistan, past, today and most likely in the future exists.  It is also part of a coalition government in Balochistan sharing with PML-Q.  According to Wikipedia, the party is de-centrist and typically is the offical opposition party in Pakistan today, and opposes strongly U.S. influence and Musharraf.  The party holds some 84 seats and about 4% of the popular vote.  [MILNET's assessment is that the party is  both larger and more popular than is let on, the next election cycle (February 2008) may very well prove this.
 --
 Major
MNM
 Muhajir National Movement
 These initials are for the English translation of the Mahajir Qaumi Mahez -- MQM political party.  See MQM  The party under this name won some 13 Parlimentary seats in the 1998 election
 ?
 Small
MP
 Milat Party
 Formed in August of 1998.  Also known as the Milat Party of Farooq Leghan named after Farooq Leghan, in 2004 merged into the new united PML.  Leghan had dismissed the PPP goernment in 1996, and thus could not rejoin the PPP party which was, to say the least, not happy with him.  Leghan was a staunch supporter of Perez Musharraf and according to a Wiki article, was recommended to merge with the PML.
 Farooq Leghan
 Small
MRD
 Movement for Restoration  of  Democracy
 Formed in 1981 and became quite active in 1982; founded by a multi-party alliance of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML), the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), the National Democratic Party (NDP), Tahrik e-Istanglala (TI), Qaauam Mahz-ee-Azadi (QMA), Paksitan Mazoor Kissan Party (PMK), and the Jmaiat e-Ulema-e-AIslam (Pakhtoonwa) (JUAP) to demand the withdrawl of martial law and immediate elections.  The alliance opposed the National People's Party and General Ziaul Haq, with none other than Benazir Bhutto acting as an important leader.
 --
 Huge, but
Temporary
Alliance Only, does not yet
sponsor specific candidates
MQM
 Muftahida Qaumi Movement
 Founded in Marhc of 1984.  Found its roots in the All Pakistan Muhajir Students Organization -- APMSO in 1978 at the University of Karachi. According to a Wikipedia article citing a Canadian Immigration and Refugee Board Issue Paper, the MQM "established a virtual monopoly over representation of the Urdu-speaking community in urban Sindh". MILNET's interpretation of events is that MQM began with a focus on the Urdu immigrant families (who immigrated into Pakistan after its indepence from India in 1947), but quickly began postering as  a more a national organization for all Urdu and Sindh sects. Wiki says, however, that the groups influence in non-Urdu speaking regions is neglible. Wiki says the group changed their name from Muhajir Qauami Movement to Muftahida Qaumit Movement in 1997 to " "further the programme of national development" and to carry out "a nation-wide campaign against feudal domination.",  Muftahida meaning "United".  MQM's first rally in August of 1986 reportedly brought out some 3 million, the  meeting citing discussions "against religoius extremism and baton and Kalshinikov Shariah."  Also according to the Wiki article, Hussain exiled himself to the U.K., he has been making a propoganda campaing againstPakistan's ruling elite's policy of "Isolation, Criminalization and Demoralization." 7  He says his exile is necessary because of brutal, deadly oppression of the MQM by the Pakistani elite government [MILNET interpretation].  In many corners of Pakistan, MQM is hated for their support of the U.S. led War on Terror and support for cooperation with the U.S. in general.
 Altaf Hussain
 Major
NAP
 National Alliance Party
 Holds some 16 seats in Parliment's National Assembly (last election October 2002)
 Imtiaz Sheikh
 Medium
NPP
 National People's Party
 A pro military government party with "heavyweight" Pakistani politicians such as S.M.Zafar, Ghulam Mustafa Khar, Kamal Azfar, Syed Hamid Raza Gilani and Nafees Siddiqui, and supported by General Ziaual Haq, in 1986.  Haq died in 1988 however, and the party began to ebb in importance.  The party was formed in August in 1986 while opposition opponents to Mz Benazir Bhutto were making moves to ouster her and her government from power (includes efforts to have Ghulam Mustafa Jatoi installed as the new Prime Minister).  When President Ishaq Khan dismissed the Benazir goverment in 1991, that same candidate, Jatai was put in place.
 ?
 ?
PDP
 Pakistan Democratic Party
 Gained 1 seat in the 1988 LLegislative elections, but not heard from since.
 ?
 Tiny,
May be disbanded
PAI
 Pakitan Awami Ittehad
 The arabic language translates to Pakistan People's Alliance -- PPA.
?
 Small
PkMAP
 Pakhtoon-khwa Milli Awami Party, aka Pakhtun-khwa Milli Awami Party
 Formed in 1970, Pashtun-based nationalist  (or perhaps a separatist) party.  Strong in North Wes Frontier Province and Pushtoon areas in Balochistan.  The Pashtun tribes reside in the northern provinces of Pakistan  and retain feudal tribal customs. They are host to, many believe, the Taliban and Al-Qaeda according to Afghanistan and this is supported perhaps by recent violence blamed on the two.  Indeed the Pashtuns are found on both sides of the border -- residing in both Afghanistan and Pakistan in the North.  In an interview online, Abdul Rahim Mandokhel, a spokesman for PkMAP said of the party " Our party is the only torch-bearer of genuine democracy, federalism and social justice. Pity such mainstream parties which support generals when they impose martial laws. In fact, we are the real mainstream party" 9  He went on to say: " NWFP's provincial status was restored without taking into consideration the aspirations of the Pakhtuns, but it was not given a Pakhtun name. The states of Kharan, Kalat and Makran as well as Lasbela, which had their own separate systems under hereditary nawabs, were merged with the chief commissioner province of Pakhtuns. This was a completely illegal action. Then giving it a name of Balochistan and making the Pakhtuns subservient in the setup was an injustice. Pakhtun identity of Southern Pakhtoonkhwa got diluted. Unfortunately the then leadership of NAP, the party which had mentioned both the above-mentioned options in its manifesto, became a part of this injustice."  PkMAP holds 3 seats in Parliment as of February, 2008 prior to the election of 2008.  The Pukhtoonkwha Mazdoor Kissan Party merged into PkMAP in 1989.b
 Akram Shah
Chairman is
Mahmood khan Achakzai
 Small
PMKP
 Pukhtoonkwha Mazdoor Kissan Party Pashtun nationalist political party formed in 1979, splitting from the Maoist Mazdoor Kissan Party.  The party merged into PkMAP in 1989 after the 1988 elections after failing to gain any seats in the Parlimentary elections in 1988.
 Sher Ali Bacha
 Small
PTI
 Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf
 Literally, "Pakistan Movement for Justice", won a whoppoing 0.8% of the popular vote but the party is said to have a major influence in middle-class families and is dead-set against the military power of Perez Musharraf.  According to Wikipedia, its leader wants "economic development of Pakistani people through justice at all levels of the society through moderation while keeping in mind golden Islamic principles. PTI aims at taking Pakistani people out of this plight through education and enlightenment" Imran Khan
 Small
PML
 Pakistan Muslim League
 A centrist, conservative party founded in 1962, with its more modern version begninning in 200, with a major reunification of numerous splinter groups in 2004.  Its origins were from the disbanded Muslim Leaque, when it split and a faction became the Pakistan Muslim Leaque.  Then in 1993, the letter "N" was added to the name for its then leader Nawaz Sharif (who continues to be quite active in Pakistani politics).   Factions broke away from that party calling themselves Pakistan Muslim League Q, named for Quaid-i-Azam.  Various other sub groups broke out from the main party until, in 2004, the various PML factions (except PML-N) reformed and once again became a united PML.  PML-Q, while siding with the mainstream PML still maintains some independence.  Today, most analysts believe the PML-Q is the true successor to the original PML.
 disbanded, replaced by PML-Q
 See
PML-Q
PML-F
 Pakistan Muslim League - Functional
 Former splinter group of PML which, in 2004 rejoined the ranks of the new modern PML.  The party won some 1.1% of the popular vote (4 of 272 seats) in the 2002 Pakistani elections.  A wing of the PML that focuses on primarily Sindh province and Sindhi religious sect.  For two months in 2004, according to a Wiki article, the PML-F merged with the united PML, however re-separated again due to differences with the "Chaudhry brothers" currently running the united PML.
 Pir Pagaro
 Small
PML-J
 Pakistan Muslim League - Jannah
 The Jannah group split from the PML and then later remerged with PML-Q just before the major unification of the majority of the PML groups.
 Mian Manzoor Ahmad Wattoo
 Small
PML-J
 Pakistan Muslim League - Junejo
 Founded in 1993, a former spin off of PML which, in 2004 rejoined the ranks of the new modern PML.  The differences cited in the original separation were between Mian Nawaz Sharif and close associates of the late Muhammad Khan Junejo -- Hamid Nasir Chattha and Iqbal Ahmad Khan. 8
 Hamid Nasir Chattha
 Medium
PML-N
 Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz
 Major group of the PML, splintered off in 1993 when Nawaz Sharif who served as Prime Minister from 1990 to 1993, and again from 1997 through 1999 was arrested and exiled. He is the President who ordered 1998 nuclear tests in response to India's tests.  The party held 23 of 272 seats in the government (nearly 8.4%) and accounted  for approximately 25% of the popular vote.  He remains in exile in Saudia Arabia.
 Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif Major
PML-Q
 Pakistan Muslim League-Q
 Splintered off from PML in 2001, named after Quadi-i-Azam and consisted of popular leaders such as Mian Mohammad Azhar, Khurshid Kasuri, Syeda Abida Hussain and her husband Syed Fakhr Imam.  The issue was the dominance of the PML-N by Nawaz Sharif's family dynasty. After the 1999 military coup in Pakistan, Chudhry Shujaat Hussain, another very popular political figure joined the party.  PML-Q won some 25.7% of the popular vote in 2002 and 166 seats in the Parliment (combining Senate and National Assembly). The PML-Q is the modern successor to the Muslim League and the fractured Pakistan Muslim League.  PML-J (Jinnah, not Junejo) merged wit the PML-Q in 2004.  As of 2008, held 185 seats or 68% of the government.  Last election the group held some 23% of the popular vote. It should be noted that PML-Q is the pentultimate Musharraf party, staunchly supporting the current "Chief Executive" taking over the country in a bloodless coup, October 12, 1999.
 Quadi-i-Azam Major
PML-Z
 Pakistan Muslim League - Ziaul
 A.K.A. the Zia-ul-Haq Group, named after the late General Aiaul Haq and formed by his son, Ijazul Haq who was also a former Senior Vice President in the PML..  Won a single seat in the following elections but not enough to be significant.
Muhammad Ijazul Haq
 Small
PPA
 Pakistani People's Alliance
 Also known as the Pakistan Awami Ittehad -- PAI.  Active in the 1988 Legislative Elections when it gained 3 of 237 seats.
?
 Small
PPP
 People's Party of Pakistan. a.k.a.
People's Party of Pakistan Parlimentarians (PPPP)
 Formed in 1968 by Aulfkar Ali Bhutto, whose wife, Benazir Bhutto served as prime minister, was exhiled and then returned to run in the 2008 campaign, and then was murdered by a suicide bomber.  The party emerged as majority party in West Pakistan in 1970, and formed a civilian government in 1972 when the 2nd military government collapsed.  The PPP was later suppressed by a third military government in 1977 but then returned to power in 1988.  Wikipedia says the party is "centre-left" and affiliated to the Socialist International, and reports that the party creed is "Islam is our faith; democracy is our politics; socialism is our economy; all power to the people."  The Wiki article also claims: "The Pakistan Peoples Party is considerably more liberal than other political parties in Pakistan and is known to fight for such issues as women's rights (its previous leader was a woman) and the rights of the poor, minorities and the oppressed." and that the regional center of the party is Sindh province with "considerable" support in Punjab province.  A small splinter group of the PPP is known as PPP-S.  It should be noted that at one time PML-J was granted much influence in the PPP in order to keep out the PML-N.
 Benazir Bhutto until her assassination, December 27, 2007. 
She has been succeeeded, for now, by her son Bilawai Bhutto Zardari and his father Asif Ali Zardar (co-chairmen).
 Major
PPP-S
 People's Party of Pakistan - Sherpao
 A splinter group from the PPP, named after and led by Aftab Sherpao. It only managed to eek out 0.3% of the popular vote in 2002, winning some 2 out of 272 seats 5
 Aftab Sherpao
 Tiny
SDA
 Sindhi Democratic Alliance
 Merged with the new united PML.  Originally a "small club of individuals like Arbab Ghulam Rahim, Jalal Mahmood Shah, Amir Bux Bhutto, Syed Shafqat Husain Shah, Raheela Tiwana and Syed Shakir Ali Jafri.", first meeting in September of 2001, days before 9/11.
 Arab Ghulam Rahim
 Small
SNF
 Sindhi National Front
 Led by a cousin of former Prime Minister and headman of the PPP, the late Zulfiqar Bhutto, its focus is on the Sindh Province.  According to the Wikipedia, "The main objective of the party is 'confederation', or a state where there is genuine provincial autonomy for each of the four provinces of Pakistan (Sindh, Punjab, the North-West Frontier Province and Baluchistan).  The SNF has never won a parliment seat, however has reasonable influence in the Sindh province.
 Mumtaz Bhutto Small
Data from the Encyclopedia Britannica Online (), Wikipedia, The CIA Factbook, the U.S. Congressional Research Service's Country Studies and various think tanks/foundations, political sites and news sources



























National Assembly Seats after February 2008 Election, 206 seats
Party NA - 20008
 % of Seats
 Last Election (2003)
Pakistan People's Party Parlimentarians (PPPP) 88 42.7
 81
Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz (PML-N) 66
 		32.0
 19
Pakistan Muslim League - Qaumi (PML-Q) 36
 17.5
 126
Mutahida Quomi Movement (MQM)
 19
 		9.22
 14
Awami National Party  (ANP) 10
 4.85
 --
Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal  (MMA) 5
 2.42
 63
Balochistan National Party - Awami  (BNP-A) 1
 0.48
 1
National Alliance Party (NAP)
 ?
 --
 16
Pakistan Muslim League - Functional (PML-F)
 ?
 --
 5
Pakistan People's Party - Sherpao (PPP/S) ?
 --
 2
Pakhtun-khwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) ?
 --
 1
Jamhoori Wattan Party (JWP) ?
 --
 1
Balochistan National Party - Mengal (BNP-M)
 ?
 --
 --
Balochistan National Movement (BNM-H) ?
 --
 1
Mutahida Quomi Movement (MQM-H)
 ?
 --
 1
Pakistan Awami Tehrik (PAT)
 ?
 --
 1
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)
 ?
 --
 1
Pakistan Muslim League - Zawaf (PML-Z) ?
 --
 1
Independents (current figure includes "others"
 40
 19.41
 3




























Click to Enlarge (map from www.dawn.com, February 19, 2008)








Party position National Assembly & provincial assemblies -2008
Party

NA

PP1

PS2

PF3

PB4
 PPPP

88

77

66

18

7
 PML(N)

66

102

0

4

0
 PML(Q)

38

64

10

4

17
 MQM

19

0

36

0

0
 ANP

10

0

2

29

2
 BNP(A)

1

0

0

0

5
 MMA

5

2

0

8

5
 Others

40

39

11

16

10
1. Provincial Assembly Punjab
2. Provincial Assembly Sindh
3. Provincial Assembly NWFP
4. Provincial Assembly Balochistan
table from www.dawn.com, February 19, 2008

It should be noted that elections in 12 "constituencies" are being reported as delayed by APP.  Sadly, a number of these elections were cancelled due to the deaths of individuals and either election officials protest or state of violence.  For instance, in Larkana-Shikarpur-cum-Kamger Shahdatkot was said to simply not being held on account of the assassination of PPP chairperson Benazir Bhutto's assassanation.  Several other deaths of candidates are blamed in a number of the cancelled or postponed elections. In all, deaths contributed to some 10 of the cancelled or postponed elections were as a result of death of candidates.  We should note that some of these constitutencies are rather large (see the gray area on the map above).

The big winner in the 2008 elections obviously are PPPP (42.7% of the seats) and PML-N (32% of the seats).  Surprisingly, with the decline in Musharraf's popularity as marked by polls since his crackdown against Islamic Extremists, the party that supports him the strongest, PML-Q, still managed to hold on to 38 seats (down from 64 in the previous election in 2003).  The Bhutto-Sarif alliance in defiance of Musharraf may splinter however when it comes down to actually governing Pakistan.

Early analysis indicates that there may be a chance for PML-N to elect a few more members to the Pakistani Senate that Bhutto's PPPP party (due to its large take in the Punjab Provincial Assembly).

It is clear a coalition of the two now predominat parties (PPPP and PML-N) would make a major political force in the country, one which, if continued may coalesce into a major party coaltion that could dominate elections to come.  If the two PML (Pakistan Muslim League) parties formed a coalition, then they have the power to overcome, just barely, the PPPP's voting block.

This might appear to be more likely if it were not for the rationale for the split between the two PML factions in the first place.  We should note that PML-Q are staunch supporteres of Musharraf, and thus PPPP nor PML-N are very unlikely to form a coalition with PML-Q.  In terms of a new coalition, we will know shortly as the fight for control of the assembly and assignment of Senate seats (the provincial assemblies elect senators rather than by popular vote) occurs.

It is clear that Musharraf's days in office are numbered.  However, it has been pointed out that he was elected to office for five years, and therefore will most likely make the attempt to serve out his term.  Of course, the new National Assembly could force the issue, constitutionally.  If, then Musharraf refuses to step down, that could be cause for the current violence to devolve into a major civil war, with Musharraf in control of the nation's military.  Those events may be well off in the future, as the National Assembly begins to order itself, as most parliamentary organized governments must do until the governing coaltions begin to field their power.

Some other possible numerical situations come to light immediately based on these preliminary results.  For instance, PPPP and MQM could work together as voting blocks to force any legislation through they wish, essentially removing PML-N or PML-Q from power nationally, leaving them to "rule" in provincial assemblies (PML-N in Punjab, PML-Q in Balochistan).   This is also not very likely as the MQM has run against the "business as usual politics", leading the call for change in Pakistani governance, and seemingly striking a chord with some 9% of the national electorate and nearly 29% of the Sindh province electorate.

MQM took a very strong second in the Sindh Province Assembly, again with a small portion of the province's overall geographical area -- the wins for MQM are in a very small portion of Sindh province, yet they took 1/3 of the seats there. It is worth noting that they took no seats in the other provinces and only slightly over 9% in the National Assembly.

Not surprisingly, ANP controls the assembly in Northwest Frontier Province, good news for those worried about religous party control of this very volatile region of Pakistan.  The spate of violence against the ANP in the months (and especially the final week) leading up to the election may, however, may lead to concern that the party's victory there will equate to more deaths in retaliation for the outcome. In other words, the will of the people may have rejected the more radical Islamic ideals, but the radicals may try to use fear and violence to overturn the election in a more practical sense.  With terror and death.

We note, however that MMA, the only major religious based party to win big in this election, also did quite well both in the National Assembly and in the NWFP Provincial Assembly.   This will certainly effect issues of interest to the so called "Muslim Street" in Pakistan.  This is not the first time the religious alliance has double digit seats in the Parliment, however with the possibility of strongman Musharraf not likely to gain relection at the end of his term or his being forced to step down by a vote of no confidence, the restraint upon the MMA's more radical leadership may be removed. 

Having said that,  MMA only took 2.4% of the seats in the National Assembly -- so much for the Muslim Street and fears of radical domination of the government.  Unless there is a violent Jihadist inspired civil war that breaks down the parlimentary government all together, it appears, at least for now, that the extermists will not find Pakistan being ruled strictly by the tenets of Shara (Strict Islamic Law) any time soon.  Unfortunately, the escalation of violence in the six months might be a harbinger of things to come, and the concern over the government failing due to insurrection still exists in the hearts of minds of those near the violence.

And finally the breakdown of "others" may make a major difference in Balochistan province, forcing PML-Q to form a coalition there in order to control the provincial assembly.  The reality of Balochistan politics, however, would indicate that PML-Q will dominate the province there.  This is a marked change from what many analysts believed.  The strong emergence of more Pashtun oriented parties such as PkMAP did not happen and thus it is questionable whether the focus on strictly Pashtoon only issues and possible separtist ideas did not strike the right message with the people of the region.  Even the milder BNP-A  did not fair well in national OR provincial elections.


Recent Politcal History

The Parliament prior to the 2008 election consisted of elected seats in the National Assembly (popular vote) and Senate Seats (elected by provincial assemblies) as shown below:

SEATS:  Senate after February 2003, National Assembly after October 2002 Elections
Party Senate
National Assembly
Party Total
Pakistan Muslim League - Qaumi (PML-Q)
 40126 166
Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal  (MMA) 2163 84
Pakistan People's Party Parlimentarians (PPPP) 1181 92
Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz (PML-N) 4
 19
 23
Mutahida Quomi Movement (MQM)
 614
 20
National Alliance Party (NAP)
 --
 16
 16
Pakistan Muslim League - Functional (PML-F)
 2
 5
 7
Pakistan People's Party - Sherpao (PPP/S) 2
 2
 4
Pakhtun-khwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) 21
 3
Awami National Party  (ANP) 2--
 2
Jamhoori Wattan Party (JWP) 11
 2
Balochistan National Party - Awami  (BNP-A) 11
 2
Balochistan National Party - Mengal (BNP-M)
 1--
 1
Balochistan National Movement (BNM-H) 1--
 1
Mutahida Quomi Movement (MQM-H)
 --
 1
 1
Pakistan Awami Tehrik (PAT)
 --
 1
 1
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)
 --
1
 1
Pakistan Muslim League - Zawaf (PML-Z)  --1
 1
Independents 4 3
 7























The 1988 elections are shown below, helping to illustrate the longer term factions within Palistani Politics:

SEATS:  1988 Elections (237 seats)
Party National Assembly
Women's Seats*
 Non-Muslim Seats*
Pakistan People's Party (PPP) 92 12
10
Islamic Democratic Alliance (IDA/IJI)
 19
 5
-
Mutahida Quomi Movement (MQM)
 14
 1
-
Assembly of Islamic Clergy (AIC/JUI)
 8
 -
-
Awami National Party
 3
 -
-
Pakistan People's Alliance (PPA/PAI)
 3
 -
-
Baluchistan National Alliance (BNA)
 2
 -
-
National People's Party (NPP)
 1
 -
-
Pakistan Democratic Party (PDP)
 1
 -
-
Independents
 27
 1
-
Vacant
2
 -
-
* 20 seats were reserved to be filled by women elected by the National Assembly.  In addtion 10 Non-Muslim Seats were to filled in a similar manner.


Updates:

April 17, 2008:  [OPINION]:  With all the work that needs to be done, the Parliament in Pakistan is dithering.  To them, it is more important to revisit the assassination of Benazir Bhutto then do something contsructive about the violence in the north.  Or to reassure the rest of the world they have a firm grip on their Islamic extremists effect on their government or the stewardship of the nuclear weapons.   An unconfirmed report out of an Australian news organization 14 says that Pakistani media disclosed secret U.S. pressure to allow U.S. inolvement in the control of Pakistan's nuclear weapons arsenal.  If the story is true, then the promulgated rejection by the Paksitanis is understandable.  However, true or not, the story does point out the concern, not just of the United States, but any rationale nation -- Pakistan's newly elected liberal (if not socialist government) does not appear to be getting down to business at hand .. namely to legislate.  Perhaps the Bhutto investigation is just another way to kick Musharraf out, but it also wastes time...there are more important issues on the table.  If they really want to get rid of Musharraf, then they should do so.  Get busy on that, but in the meantime, they should take on the violence and directly.  Another report in the same article says that Pakistan's chief militant is helping to form a tribal council in collaboration with the "government in Islambad" which will negotiate with the northern tribes including some guys who call themselves the Taliban.  Some might worry that this means the Parliament is about to get a fresh insite into how not to negotiate with Islamic extremists.  The hard way.  Again if the report is accurate, then the Pakistani Parliment is playing a very dangerous game  They are a Legislature, not an executive branch.  And if this is an indication of how they want to conduct the business of governing Pakistan, we can't look forward to that effort if they DO manage to push out Musharraf and replace him with their own favorite candidate for President. 

March 25, 2008:  Pakistan's new Prime Minister Yousaf Gilani was sworn into office by President Perez Musharraf and several American Diplomats are in Pakistan to discuss what comes next in terms of the fight agianst terrorism in that nation and its neighbors.

March 24, 2008:  The New Priime Minister, Yousaf Raza Gilani orderd the release of Iftkhar Mohammed Chaudhry and other detained judges.  Analyts are now watching to see if the Parliament makes good promises certain members and their parties have made in the press -- promises to restore the judges to their posts.  Another promise, quite a bit harder to accomplish without the judges support, would be the ouster of Musharraf who has much of five year term as President to serve out. 

March 22, 2008:  The PPPP announced that Yousaf Raza Gilani would be the parties candidate for Prime Minister.  A vote to confirm Gilani should take place on Monday, with President Perez Musharraf swearing him in the following day.

March 17, 2008:  The Parliament met, electing Madame Fahmida Mirza as the Speaker of the National Assembly after some 300 members took their oaths of office.  The Parliament will take office later in March and then begin the process of changing the government led today by President Musharraf.  Sources indicate they wish to strip Musharraf of his power to dissolve Parliament as well as ensure he cannot dismiss the Prime Minister.  Also, there are said to be plans to restore judges purged from their offices by Musharraf last November.  Included will be Iftikhar Mhoammed Chaudhry, who was ousted just before making a decision on Musharraf's eligibility to run for President -- this is assumed to create the crisis that may lead to forcing Musharraf to lose his position as President.  This political crisis goes on admidst violence in the north from tribal areas thought to be infested with Taliban and Al Qaeda militants, and Baluch rebels creating havoc in Baluchistan province in the South. 13

February 23, 2008:  According to the Associated Press the PPPP and PML-N are centering in on who they would like to nominate as the new Pakistani Prime Minister, and odds are it will be one of three people (in order of standing on the short list so far); Makhdoom Amin Fahim, 68 year old soft spoken veteran who had turned down Musharraf's offer to join his government in the past and a close ally to the Bhuttos; Shah Mehmood Qureshi, a top People's Party figure from Punjab province, and former National Assembly speaker Yousuf Raza Gilani.  Fahim is from Sindh province which meets with a major desire of the PPPP while Qureshi and Gilani are from Punjab province.  A final decision is expected perhaps, on Monday, 2/25/2008.  MILNET notes that this is all paper trappings at the moment, Musharraf has nearly a full five year term in office remaining (he was sworn in as the civilian president on November 29, 2007) and currently while the alliance of PPPP and PML-N have a majority of votes, they do not have the necessary number to control impeachment proceedings against Musharraf.

February 21, 2008:  The leaders of the Pakistan People's Party of Parliamentarians (PPPP) and the Pakistan Muslim Leaque-N (PML-N) have agreed in principle to form a national coalition party in Parliment as well as the local provinicial assemblies in order to bring a unity government with a broad majority across the nation.  The PPPP is the party of late Benazier Bhutto and the PML-N is led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his brother Shahbaz.12  Together they will hold at least 154 seats in the National Assembly as well as 179 seats in the Punjab Provincial Assembly.  PPPP already holds a majority in Sindh province, and together the two parties nearly match the ANP in the Northwest Frontier Province assembly, which will take advantage of any dissent amongst ANP members (22 vs. 29 seats).  If MQM or MMA members do not side with ANP members in the NWFP Provincial Assembly, there may be opportunity for the PPPP/NML-N alliance to control that provincial assembly as well.  And clearly the alliance will control the Pakistani Senate whose members are elected by the provincial assemblies.

Sources:
  1. Pakistan: Pakistan Political Parties, Encyclopedia Britannica Online, undated.
  2. Pakistan Muslim League, Wikipedia, undated
  3. Pakistan Muslim League - N, Wikipedia, undated
  4. Pakistan Muslim League - Q, Wikipedia, undated
  5. Pakistan Muslim League - S, Wikipedia, undated
  6. Pakistan Muslim League - J, Wikipedia, undated
  7. Muttahida Qaumi Movement, Wikipeda, undated
  8. Parties to Inform EC About Merger with PML, Ashraf Mumtaz, Dawn Internet, 5/20/2004
  9. Pakistan People's Party, Country Studies.com, undated
  10. Pakistan 1988 Legislative Election, Democratic Performance, Binghampton University, undated
  11. Female Pakistani Minister Shot Dead for Refusing to Wear Veil, Devika Bhat and Zahid Hussain, The Times, FoxNews Online, 2/21/2007
  12. Pakistan Opposition Parties to Ally, Matthew Pennignton, Associated Press, 2/21/2008
  13. New Pakistan Parliament Convenes, Sadaoat Jan, A.P., 3/17/2008
  14. Pakistan Opposes U.S. Nuke Oversight, Bruce Loudon, The Australian, April 16, 2008
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