Communist China, fresh from the massive intelligence windfall that followed the EP-3 incident on the 1st April this year, has stepped up fighter patrols and has aggressively intercepted and then 'shadowed' at least ten USAF and USN 'spy' aircraft over the South China sea since the United States resumed its electronic surveillance flights on May 28th.
 
The Chinese Air Force has been regularly practicing low level  and night interceptions, aimed at making life for US reconnaissance and electronic warfare aircraft very difficult in the future. The elite squadron involved in these exercises is equipped with advanced Russian Su-27 'Flanker' jet fighters armed with deadly AA-10 & AA-11 air-to-air missiles.
 
China has learned much from the disassembled EP3 and in addition to the humiliation involved in it being returned in pieces, probably on board a large Russian transport aircraft, the US Intelligence community is having to come to terms with a much more hostile environment and knowledgeable and better prepared China.
 
A USN electronic surveillance vessel has also been intercepted and 'buzzed' by Chinese aircraft in recent days and the Chinese Navy, growing in power and influence, is flexing its muscles not only in its own waters, but throughout the Indian & Pacific ocean areas.
 
As part of the decision taken by the Chinese Political and Military leadership at the beginning of May to challenge the United States at every opportunity, large scale exercises are now taking place in the waters around Taiwan.
 
At least 160 Amphibious craft and transports have massed at Dongshan Island across the Taiwan straits from the southern end of Taiwan Island. This is the largest gathering of such equipment since the exercises around Dongshan in 1996. Fears are growing amongst the US and Taiwan authorities that China may be preparing for its so-called 'phase 2' operations....the invasion and seizure of one of Taiwan's offshore islands. China has deployed some 5 Armies with 15 combat ready Divisions in area's close to the coast facing its old enemy and these units receive the finest and most advanced weapons.
 
Both the heavily defended Islands of Quemoy and Matsu have been the subject of China's military aggressiveness since the large scale artillery bombardments of 1954-55 and indeed, the Island of Yijiangshan, some 210 miles north of Taiwan was captured by the Communist forces following a successful amphibious assault.
 
While many analysts still consider this unlikely, the chances of China being capable of such an operation and willing to risk the potential Military and Diplomatic fallout are growing.
 
China, a slowly waking giant, will pose a huge new threat to US influence in the region and any serious weakness in resolve or the willingness of the Bush administration to play the military card, could prove to be disastrous for both the US and its many Asian allies.
 
 
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