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Iraq challenges the U.S. again

With the attempted attack on a U-2 overflight, the Iraqi military has provided a convenient excuse to the U.S. attack on prime targets in Iraq.  This is especially true after no U.S. response following an attempt at a surveillance aircraft outside of Iraqi airspace.  And as before, U.S. enforces their claims to the right to make their U.N. mandated Operations Northern Watch and Southern Watch safe for U.S. airmen.

With this attempt, the U.S. may extend their U.N. granted rights of patrol and strike strategic targets previously avoided.  After two years of Iraqi non-compliance to inspections for weapons of mass destruction (WMD), the U.S. might opt to take out suspected WMD facilities as well as once again go "downtown", taking out military targets in Baghdad such as command, control, and intelligence facilities.

Excellent Training

Pentagon sources say Iraq continues to provide U.S. combat fliers with real, if not challenging, live fire exercises with an enemy that does at times to shoot back.  In addition, when Iraqi forces do light up anti-aircraft or missile guidance radars, U.S. anti-radiation equipment including sensors, jammers, and anti-radiation homing missiles gets new tests of new releases of software and hardware, giving the U.S. additional edges in their warfighting capabilities.

While the costs of mounting combat operations are exceedingly expensive, the front line training element is considered very good for stress and combat resource management, training that can be just as expensive in mock conditions.

The Downside

The only downside considered by most Pentagon sources is the collateral effects when a precision weapon goes its own way.  Which is even more likely when Saddam Hussein's forces have prepared for a strike -- a fact which seems rational this soon after an attack on the U-2.  U.S. Intelligence sources have commented on the movement and alert status of Iraqi troops, indicating a, by now, standard Iraqi technique of moving strategic forces and intelligence groups out into populated areas where an attack would create civilian casualties.  Since Hussein seems impervious to and backlash from such cynical activities -- he has an iron fist on the news and critical commentary in Iraq -- his military forces uses innocents as shields with no uncertain impunity.

Why Now?

Anti-proliferation forces world-wide have voiced their concern over the lack of inspections in Iraqi -- two years of not knowing how well Saddam Hussein has masked the nurturing of the Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs.

Intelligence sources have fed these concerns with information that leads analysts to worry about so-called dual use resources, which Iraq has continually been able to smuggle into the country with its extremely high spending on things clandestine. One Pentagon intelligence source cites the fact that Saddam now has enough chemical and biological equipment that could be used both for medicine production AND WMD production, that he could easily build hundreds if not thousands of biological or chemical weapons.  And with two years of development, Iraq may have once again reached the point where a nuclear weapon is just waiting for a little weapons grade material.

All of these concerns might lead Pentagon strategists with no choice but to recommend a pre-emptive strike on WMD facilities in hopes of catching the Iraqis with their production AND material in positions where U.S. forces can strike with high potential for elimination of the threat.  And while some in the world chastise the U.S. for continued support of sanctions, the intelligence data points numerous suspect purchases made with Iraqi money earned in programs that target those monies to the Iraqi people for medicine and support.  One source indicates that there are clear trails of monies meant for medicine in the last two years as being used in high percentages for purchase of so-called dual use equipment such reagents, biological cultivation equipment, high precision machining equipment, and high speed, precision centrifuges.  Other nuclear items such as triggers and templates for shaped charges have also shown up in clandestine purchases by Iraq according to another source.  As the circumstantial evidence leads U.S. intelligence to target human operatives to confirm and pinpoint these items, clear strategic strike motivations grow stronger.

Who gets to train?

Amongst the U.S. forces likely prepared to go into Iraq would be F-117 Stealth Bombers based within attack range of downtown Baghdad or via refuelling, based within mission parameters to anywhere they are needed in Iraq. F-15E Strike Eagles, and F-16 Falcon could also play a major role if hardened targets or larger areas need to be pounded.  However, to virtually eliminate U.S. casualties in any limited "surgical strike", the U.S. would probably opt, as it has in the past, to use expensive but entirely expendable Tomahawk cruise missiles in all or part of its strike.

The objective of any attacks on suspected WMD facilities might be left to the stealth fighters, though, in order to provide a man on the spot to make a decision if the target can be taken without considerable civilian damage.  Although, overhead surveillance would probably have made it clear that civilian facilities surround many possible WMD sites due to dual use resources.  This concern for risk by Pentagon planners may be overridden by the need to assure anti-proliferation proponents in the Pentagon that Iraq's WMD capability is once again pounded into the ground.

Offsetting this approach, other Pentagon officials have said that without inspectors on the ground, there is simply no way to make sure they not only find the right spots to attack, i.e. knowing that the Iraqis haven't moved equipment in time to avoid destruction.  Since it is pretty clear U.S. will not attack hospitals, many believe that Iraqi military has a well oiled plan that moves equipment into specially equipped storage areas deep in the heart of their hospitals in order to avoid destruction.  These elements alone may prohibit going after certain types of suspect equipment.

The key then is to strike while the gear is in use as devices for the production of materials for WMD.  Again, only intelligence on the ground can suffice, and it is not clear how successful any outside agency has been in penetrating the Iraqi establishment well enough to gather detailed intelligence needed to pinpoint WMD equipment locations prior to a strike.

Other than F-117 and Tomahawk missiles, the F-15 and F-16 as well as British fighters might participate in escorting bombing "packages" through Iraqi airspace.  Combined with AEWS or EWC type surveillance aircraft, this produces superior airspace control that allows the U.S. to attack at will in the Iraqi heartland.

As before, U.S. early forerunners take out command and control radar's, limiting if not eliminating the Iraqi ability to see incoming strike aircraft.  With tomahawks flying in at low level, the Iraqi gun emplacements that might be able to single out a fighter-bomber are attacked, followed by wild weasel aircraft trying to tease the remaining Iraqi missile radar guidance sites to "come up on the air".  Anti-radiation missiles would then attack these sites, further darkening Suddam's military vision.

Once an acceptable risk factor is reached by blinding the forces watching the airspace, U.S. aircraft could then traverse the Northern or Southern No Fly zones with almost impunity to strike where-ever their on the ground intelligence tells them where to find WMD or strategic targets such as command, control, or intelligence assets.

If an aircraft carrier is in the region, the ground attack forces could be supplemented with F-18 Hornet aircraft, the surveillance teams with the E-2C Hawkeye twin turboprop AEWS, and the combat air protection of the F-14 Tomcats.

Left out of the exercise

Fortunately, ground forces such as U.S. Army, U.S. Marine, or Special Forces would most likely never get beyond a ready alert stage.  The only exception might be some special forces types used to communicate with "eyes on the ground" spotters who have penetrated Iraq, or where a special target MUST be taken out personally to ensure it does not threaten air assets.

And of course, aside from support of the special forces teams, the helicopters, tanks, and other assets used for ground combat would lie in readiness but probably not be used in combat.

The dangers

Aside from political backlash, the U.S. military and government at home would be concerned about the loss of U.S. airmen and aircraft during any attack leading deeply into Iraqi airspace.  While everyone hopes to have a perfectly clean mission (no casualties, light if no aircraft damage, and no collateral -- Civilian -- damage), the risks are always there that an unplanned contingency would put U.S. airmen or special forces units at risk of injury, capture or even death.

And while the U.S. has had an extremely good record in protecting its forces facing Iraqi in the years since the Gulf War, there is always an element of substantial risk when conducting combat operations.  The simple act of takeoff and landing combat laden aircraft is a recipe for unexpected casualties, not to mention traversing enemy occupied land where the shoulder launched missile can spoil anyone's superb anti-structural attack strategy.  Assuming you've taken out most of the surface-to-air-missiles (SAMs) trolling around the sky is an excellent way to find a Russian or Chinese built shoulder rocket up your tailpipe.

Thus most analysts would expect the U.S. forces to expend Tomahawks first, and then perhaps lay in a small number of F-117 attacks, sprinkled with Wild Weasel attacks followed by F-15E or F-16 bombing runs.  Quick in and out missions most likely, with perhaps one or two high risk missions to go after suspected WMD sites.  Each of these escalations could be presented as scaleable options to U.S. President Bush, with rising risk factors, all in terms of human, aircraft and political viewpoints.

And if President Bush has enough evidence, perhaps he might allow U.S. forces to take out a hospital harboring botulism or anthrax cultivation vessels -- only of course with nearly bullet-proof intelligence to support the claim.  Nerve gas or other chemical supplies might also be a WMD target worth some civilian damage.  To measure the possibility, ask yourself, "would the Israelis let a hospital stop them?".  Even the Geneva convention allows for  attack on medical facilities -- on a case by case basis -- where the opponent is blatantly using the medical facilities for "strategic purposes".

- MILNET

Turn to AFI and MILNET for continuing information on the Iraqi challenges  to western sanctions.

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