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As the world watches Israel prepare its forces for an ethnic cleansing not too much unlike that in Bosnia, it is also clear why the government has come to this position.

First, responding to world pressure and the masses of Palestinians living and working in the regions now being devastated slowly but surely by Israeli movement, the Israelis essentially said, "Okay, we'll try it your way" to their critics.

Second, in an amazing display of patience, the Israelis even recognized Arafat as the leader of the Palestinian regions that caused so much pain and suffering to both the Israeli people, but also death and destruction to the Israeli military.  This despite long years of Arafat led terrorist activities that defied his survival at the hands of Israeli covert anti-terrorist assassin squads.

Third, as world leadership cautioned Israel to moderation and accord after accord has been agreed to, the Israeli governments from Begin to Sharon have faced sign after sign that the appeasement of world peace lovers was ruining not only their country, but threatening administration after administration as well as holy sites with destruction.

Fourth, the government of Israel has watched factions within its own people taken to the brink of revolution, with radical religious Israeli citizens becoming terrorists against any Arab world targets including religious, civilian, or military.

The New Scenario

It must seem to the current government that all that has passed before have been terrible mistakes and weakness in fortitude.  It must be easy to see that it is time to purge the blight of Palestinian resistance, and move Israel's borders fully back to those of years ago, where there was buffer zone between non-Jew and Jew.  Time to reinforce the borders set by years of military struggle to protect Israel with areas where non-Jews entered at their own risk and without some other nation claiming the non-Jew had rights to some piece of desert whose ownership has been contested throughout written history.

Scenario Part Two

In fact, in some Israeli thinking, why not push a little further, creating a larger buffer zone, and then withdraw into the current buffer zone, set up artillery and rockets.  With modern surveillance equipment, Israel could easily pound the hell out of anyone attempting to cross the no-mans land.

Militarily the idea has some merit, although Israel might have to enforce an even worse isolationism than perhaps the old iron curtain created for the former Soviet Union.  Little non-Israeli travel into the country, and absolutely no non-Jew immigration.  In fact, Jewish immigration would become problematic -- how much immigration would the current borders and buffer zones allow?  Would newly immigrated Israeli settlers have to live in an environment similar to the U.S.'s wild west -- armed and dangerous on every street corner, putting up with Lebanon like shelling every night as outside forces continually attempt incursions?

For the Israeli government, these kinds of problems are not only workable, but more desirable than what they face today.  At least, for the most part, the majority of Israeli citizens would prefer their government focused on immigration and patrolling the "wild east" or "wild north".  And even if the "wild south" became a problem, well many of the older Israelis would remind their compatriots that there is nothing new in patrolling a border surrounded on just about all sides by outsiders intent on taking a foot away a day.

Scenario Part Three

The Israeli Military no doubt has pledged their ability to roll the borders back to any point in the military defined borders since the Ten Years war.  In fact, they probably have position papers on which of the border definitions are best, the pros and cons of each, as well as the number of dead estimated on both sides for each scenario.

The question then, is  how the leaders of Israel contemplate enforcing this escalation.  A simple statement like, "Get out, now.  We aren't kidding." delivered to any non-Israeli might be all that is needed to enforce the exodus of anyone who doubts their welcome is Israel.  Then a second warning to the countries along the Israeli border, "Stay back, we mean it" will clearly set the stage.

Using its huge conventional might to drive and then stake out their borders, the Israelis could easily feel they are capable of holding on to what they have or have taken after some point in a push to move their buffer zones a little deeper.

After all, there is Scenario Part Four to consider.

Scenario Part Four

There may even be some in the Israeli government who have painted the scenario where a tactical nuclear weapon will be used  --  the first such non test use of a nuclear weapon since Hiroshima and Nagasaki in World War II.  A terse message to surrounding countries -- "Cross this line and we will make it a nuclear hazard zone".

Would the Israeli's be believed?  Yes.  Would they be challenged?  Yes.  Will they really do it?  Yes.  Then what happens?  Ahh, there is the rub.  Obviously condemnation from every liberal in the world, and perhaps at least 50% of the worlds centerline, the moderates.  And perhaps a goodly portion of those leaning to the right.

Reality Check

Would the world react?  Of course.  From sanctions to threats.  Who would stand-up for Israel in protecting her borders?  No one.  And that, erstwhile reader, is just why Israel could follow this scenario. The world has created this problem.  With its lack of support and understanding of the Israeli mindset and its incredible zeal to survive, our sometimes pro-Arab sensitivities have produced an Israel who, perhaps rightly so, believes no one really cares to help them survive.  Even the United States, a sometime benevolent leader in support for Israel has shown a duplicitous face to the Israeli government and perhaps even shown an angry liberal, anti-war sentiment that defies Israeli survival.

And of course Scenario Part Four is the definite action that will finally isolate Israel from the rest of the world and make her worst nightmares come true.

Because despite some people saying "Well, its hard to blame them for wanting to protect their borders", and "They did give adequate warning", the fact is the world can accept a line of tanks and artillery blasting away at a line drawn in the sand, but cannot condone the use of even the smallest tactical nuclear weapon..  We as a world culture have decided that the nuclear beast is so dangerous and so easy to mis-use, that any use is forbidden.  For some the rationale has nothing to do with the number of dead or "humane" reasons -- it has to do with the precedence in today's culture.

After all, if Israel can use a tactical nuke to protect her border, than why not permit China to solve the Taiwan problem once and for all with a nuke in the water just far enough off shore of the mainland.  What's to keep Iran from assembling a weapon (they probably have everything they need now) and dusting a zone between Iraq and Iran with the message "Hey Saddam, don't tread on me!".  Maybe India or Pakistan would get the idea that the control zone would be better if it glowed with that peculiar blue glow at night.

And how different is this from the U.S. saying in the 1700s, "Hey Britain, take your taxes and get the hell out of the Americas!"  Perhaps you could even compare the number of killed during the American revolutionary war to the number of soldiers  killed by the use of a tactical nuke along one of the Israeli buffer zones.  The nuke might be less costly in human life -- fallout and post-event deaths and sickness not withstanding.

So now the scenario comes to this.  Could Israel sustain defense of her borders, fight world sanctions and still remain a sovereign nation and uphold their standard of living.  Perhaps.  Could Israel survive their use of a tactical nuclear weapon?  Perhaps, but less likely.  And these are the key questions and the pair of answers that perhaps a number of Israeli officials are contemplating.  Perhaps it is something as simple as "How far can we go, and how willing are we to go there."  Perhaps.

Clearly, a dangerous time.  Are the first three scenarios possible?   Absolutely.  What about the nuclear option?  Perhaps.  Should you worry?  If you live in the Middle East, definitely.

The rest of the world probably will not feel any personal danger, but should worry never-the-less.  As we have learned time and time again, other country's problems and our alliances tend to make serious events, far from home, escalate right into our back yard.  Now is not the time to try to isolate ourselves from the rest of the world, and certainly not the time to consider this a solely Middle East problem.

Personally, isn't the sheer number of "perhaps" a frightening prospect in itself?

© 2001, Michael Crawford, MILNET
 

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