Espionage & Security, Strategy & Risk Analysis and Armed Forces Intelligence
Global Information & Research Services for the News Media, MNC and OSINT Managers

Contact  afi@supanet.com   Bookmark  www.geocities.com/afi_research/AFIindex.html
 

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________

For expert commentary on the news, defence, terrorism, intelligence and conflict analysis or to subscribe to the comprehensive range of research services available to the press, broadcasters, publishing, and OSINT managers - contact Richard  M. Bennett at AFI Research
________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Unless success comes within the next five weeks or so and rather than risk getting bogged down in a major  conventional campaign during the harsh winter months ahead in Afghanistan, some analysts are suggesting the US may opt to continue with the bombing combined with limited special forces operations and switch its main attention to other target countries in the Middle East and Far East

Kurdish groups expect Iraq to be next

Nervous Iraqi Kurds are stockpiling food and fuel in the expectation that the United States will soon attack Iraq in the campaign against terrorism. Kurdish spokesman have also called on Washington to destroy the Jund al-Islam, an Islamic extremist group that Kurds say Osama Bin-Laden is behind.

``A terrorist network is trying to destroy part of Iraqi Kurdistan,'' said Barham Salih, a well-known Kurdish rebel leader ``I am looking for help from every quarter we can get it. I am hoping that the world will not be indifferent to this situation.'' Salih claimed the Jund al-Islam was a creation of Bin-Laden.

While many in Israel believe it will be Hezbollahs turn

Sources in Jerusalem have said that Israel has recently been warned the Bush administration that the US does intend to target the Palestinian terrorist groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad and the Iranian-backed guerrilla group Hezbollah with its network of Syrian-protected bases in the Beka'a valley. Those organizations would "be dealt with", according to normally reliable sources, as soon as the United States has completed the initial phase of the operations in Afghanistan against Osama Bin-Laden and the Taliban regime.

Sources also said that time was also running out, despite his current diplomatic offensive, for the Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat to finally impose his rule on Islamic militant organizations. According to the sources, the fact that Palestinian police suppressed a demonstration by Bin-Laden supporters was proof that "when Arafat is pressured, he acts."  However, the consensus in Jerusalem is that Arafat has not yet arrived at the potentially fateful decision to fight these extremist organizations and that his actions were only cosmetic and designed to keep the support of his long term pay-masters, the United States.



And in the Philippines, Abu Sayyaf

In the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States, the  Philippine government has intensified its campaign against the Muslim separatist group Abu Sayyaf, which is believed to have very close links with Osama Bin-Laden Al Qaida network. The Governments efforts to crush the Abu Sayyaf may now have more chance of success as other Islamic militants in the Philippines have quickly distanced themselves from Bin-Laden and other associated groups.

Abu Sayyaf were blamed for three small bombs which exploded in hotels in Zamboanga City in the southern Philippines early Oct. 8 by the Philippines National Security Adviser Roilo Golez.  Local newspapers and broadcasters reported Golez as saying the bombs were a diversionary tactic to distract military forces tracking the group on the nearby island of Basilan.

With the U.S. campaign against terrorism intensifying, the Abu Sayyaf group is believed to have lost support, even
among other Islamic militants in the Philippines. As the larger groups opt to remain out of the United States line of fire, the more radical groups like the Abu Sayyaf may be increasingly pushed to the fringe and indeed find it harder to shelter in territory controlled by 'mainstream' insurgent groups.

Then.....

Assuming the worlds greatest superpower does achieve a quick 'victory' in Afghanistan or merely leaves the problem in cold-storage until next spring, what or perhaps more correctly where then?   Kashmir, Libya, Sri Lanka, Syria, Iran, Sudan, Algeria, Colombia, Cuba, N.Korea, Indonesia, ETA in Spain, the 'KLA' or even the IRA?   There's plenty of work out there for the really dedicated anti-terrorist campaigner and assuming that our BS-meters are working and all the grand words emanating from the Whitehouse and Downing Street are not just so much hot air that will quickly disperse in the cold winds of reality, then this particular conflict may well last longer than the First and Second World Wars combined.
 
Richard M. Bennett

__________________________________________________________________________

AFI, a commercial organization, has a well deserved reputation for confronting major issues with both impartiality and total independence from Government and Corporate influence and with its US partners make up the AFI-Milnet-Orbat Intelligence network, offering one of  the leading international sources of expert information on the worlds conflicts, armed forces, intelligence, security services and related subjects.....contact us today to find out how we can help keep you better informed than your competition

Media Information

Senior Associate
Richard M Bennett (UK)

Associates
Dr Robert Zeidner (USA-Consultant), Michael Crawford (Milnet-USA), Ravi Rikhye (Orbat-USA),
Dr James Hawker (Australia-Consultant) and Ms Kate Bennett (UK)

International Network - US Partners
www.milnet.com/milnet/afi/
www.orbat.com (Armed Forces Intelligence)

Top Links
www.defense-i.com (Armed Forces Intelligence)    www.freelancedirectory.org (Bennett)
www.kimsoft.com/kim-spy.htm (AFI Research)   www.questico.co.uk/INSIGHT

This is the HTML version of the AFI Research international regular news feed. For those wishing to receive a text-only version contact afi@supanet.com

AFI is one of the best open sources of intelligence on the world's espionage and security services, international terrorism, armed forces, weapons and conflicts, that's why our releases are now one of the most widely used intelligence and conflict analysis news feeds.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

AFI are pleased to announce a new review of some of the most important armies in world, 'FIGHTING FORCES', to be published on the 28th September by Barrons Educational Publishers of New York and written by Richard M. Bennett.

ISBN 0-7641-5343-9, priced at $29.95 with a 10% discount for orders placed on www.barronseduc.com in September.or call US Toll-free 1-800-645-3476, International  Tel: 631-434-3311 and Fax: 631-434-3217

AFI Research, The Ground Floor, 27 The Avenue, Newton Abbot, Devon, TQ12 2BZ, UK tel/fax: +44(0)1626 33 50 40