Continued US Middle Eastern military presence risks Arab backlash
 
The Middle East is set for a strategic redrawing of alliances and the birth of, perhaps a more realistic assessment of the threats now facing the region. Many Arabs see the slow almost inexorable growth of an anti-Islamic military alliance against them .

The United States is building a ring of important bases in the Central Asian countries of Uzbekistan and Kazakstan, permanent facilities at Jacobobad in Pakistan, an improved relationship with the regional superpower of India, the bases on Socotra, Masirah and Diego Garcia in the Arabian sea, Dahlak off the Eritrean Coast and perhaps soon at Berbera in Somalia. In addition there is the closer relationship with Oman, where the Sultan having been assured that Washington will look after his external defence, is diverting military funds to social programs in the hope of heading off the sort of unrest that now threatens the Saudi Monarchy .
 
The United States also has a defence agreement with several of the small Gulf states with pre-positioned equipment for US Armoured Brigades. While to the West, Israel is champing at the bit and to the North, Turkey. Packed with US military facilities and equipment, Turkey is being tempted into taking a leading role in any major US military campaign against Iraq or Syria by the prospect of restoring its influence and prestige some 80 odd years after the collapse of the Ottoman empire. It is a serious fault of the west that they consistently under-estimate the importance and influence of history upon the Middle East. Turk's will point out,that though they are a Muslim nation, they are not Semitic like the Arabs and indirectly this arrogant disdain for its former vassals has led Turkey to throw in its lot with the USA, NATO and even Israel. Even further away, but conveniently situated roughly mid-way from the bases on the eastern seaboard to the Gulf, Morocco appears to be building a new relationship with the United States. Morocco was a major asset to the Americans in the cold war,home to NSA SIGINT sites and major Air Force bases. The nearness of Algeria, home to Islamic extremist groups and the new economic opportunities on offer in West Africa makes Morocco a potentially important ally for Washington.
 
Revival of Pan-Arabism born of necessity
 
The growth of a major US military presence is changing the geo-strategic perceptions of the Middle East and may have a dramatic effect on the people of the region. The signs are there already, Egypt is looking to Communist China as a future partner in the development of new weapon systems, the Palestinians are attempting to cement a closer relationship with both Syria and Iran. Iraq too has established a presence inside the Palestian authority, an understanding with Syria and an apparently severly rattled Saudi Government is seeking a reconciliation with Baghdad.  Riyad has become a leading opponent of any US-led attack on Iraq.  Diplomats have said that the Saudis have warned the Bush administration that such an attack would have serious repercussions on relations between the Kingdom and the United States. On Jan. 9, Saddam issued a call for reconciliation with both Riyad and Kuwait, his first such announcement since the 1991 Gulf war. Saddam's call was featured prominently in Saudi-owned newspapers on January 10th.
 
In possibly an even more significant move, the Iranian news agency said that the Iranian transport minister Ahmad Khouram on January 14th held talks with his Iraqi counterpart, Ahmad Murtadi Ahmad, on increasing bilateral co-operation especially in air transport between the two countries.The Iraqi minister, who arrived in Tehran on a four-day visit, stressed that "Iraq will provide the necessary services for airlines companies for free." and that " resumption of air flights between the two countries will open the door for co-operation in other sectors."  The two ministers also discussed the issue of linking the two countries by railways. The Iranian minister said that linking railways between Iraq, Iran and Pakistan is one of Tehran's priorities" This has strategic consequences as railways provide these states with the only viable method of large scale movement of armoured vehicles, heavy equipment and substantial numbers of troops around the region. Significant too, that this would allow a strategic redeployment of Iranian and Pakistan forces in support of either Iraq or Syria in the event of a major future confrontation with Israel or even Turkey.
 
A new Muslim coalition may be in the making, born more out of the growing fear of the ring of military power building around them, than of any genuine meeting of minds. Egyptian and Gulf intelligence suggest that the secret negotiations are well advanced, however based on past experience the idea that these disparate and oil rich Arab nations will bury their differences sufficiently to create a viable military alliance is unlikely. However, the World has changed dramatically in many ways since 9-11 and the new reality may not be restricted just to Washington and London. Fear is a great motivator and there are a lot of frightened leaders in the capitals of the Middle East these days.
 
Richard M. Bennett
 
 

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