The Upcoming Gulf Crisis

The "Worst Case Scenario" for American interests in the Gulf region may be about to occur. The fragile alliances, built on Oil and clandestine support for minority, oppressive regimes is beginning to crumble. This comes as no surprise to the global intelligence community, for without the active involvement of massive clandestine support, the regimes would have joined the Shah of Iran, a long time ago.

What amazes many Analysts, is the death wish of these regimes. Instead of welcoming US forces on their soil, to protect them, senior Saudi officials openly complained to The Washington Post that the Saudi rulers believe the United States has ''overstayed its welcome'' and its forces have become a political liability. The future use of the Prince Sultan Air Base, where American forces have maintained a presence since the 1991 Gulf War, is at risk.  The relationship between the United States, and the Saudi rulers, has been strained by the Sept. 11 attack on the World Trade Centre,  blamed by the United States on Saudi-born militant Osama Bin-Laden.

This unwelcome attention to Saudi Arabia comes at a time of leadership turmoil, as Crown Prince Abdullah is effectively in charge, as the ruler, King Fahd, is reported to be in poor health, and effectively out of the loop of government.  The vocal resentment to the Saudi family is growing, both at home, and throughout the region.

Commenting on the Saudi statements and the effect of the US being asked to leave Saudi Arabia, Washington Intelligence Expert, Wayne Madsen, stated  " Without the protection of the United States military, the House of Saudi will be effectively defenceless. The United States has provided the country with practically all of its major defence, law enforcement, and intelligence systems, including its air defence systems, the Saudi Arabia Ministry of Interior System (SAMIS II) that keeps track of its citizens and visitors, its naval forces (Saudi Naval Expansion Project), National Guard (through Vinnell Corp., a US private military contractor tied to the CIA), etc. When we pull out, there are a lot of countries that would like to even old scores with the House of Saud. These include Iran, Iraq, Jordan, the Gulf States, and Yemen. "

Wayne Madsen, with many sources in the area, pointed to numerous reports in the local Arab media. "Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah recently verbally assaulted the Emir of Qatar at a Gulf Co-operation Council summit. Abdullah complained about Qatar's support for Al Jazeera for broadcasting anti-Saudi programs. A Qatar government official once told me that all the small Gulf States would like to see Saudi Arabia a thing of the past -- he said the Saudis are considered arrogant and hypocrites, citing the number of Mercedes Benz carrying Saudi Princes that wipe out on the ocean causeway from Bahrain to the Saudi mainland after nights of heavy drinking by the drivers."

Turning to sources in Turkey, their hostility towards the current Saudi regime came to a head, with the demolition recently, of a revered Ottoman 18th Century Castle, a historically invaluable relic. What has upset the Turks is that the US blasted the Taliban for destroying Buddhist statues, but remained silent when the Saudis bulldozed the pristine Ottoman castle, to build commercial property. The resentment of dual standards from  Washington, throughout the entire region, is beginning to reach boiling point. The US is beginning to be perceived as a bully, intent on bombing cities, and infrastructure into ruins, yet unable to capture a solitary frail figure, in an Army Surplus Combat Jacket. The Bush Administration has elevated Bin-Laden to the status of a folk hero, a rallying call for Islamic Militants. These militants can be found and arrested in most counties, but around the Gulf region they have the potential of becoming the legitimate government in those countries supplying the bulk of the US oil supply.

The US desperately needs to occupy Somalia, to cover its interests, and oil supply in the Middle East. The fast foot work to secure Afghanistan, to route the oil from the old Soviet Oilfields, to a secure warm water port in Pakistan, will take time. The Bush/Baker plan to grab the oil in Southern Sahara, along with Morocco, will also take time. Where there is no longer time to spare is in the Gulf region.

In that region the important Iran is proving far from a compliant partner. There are many unconfirmed reports that Iran, and Iraq may seek a better understanding, even an alliance. The shipment of arms to Palestine, where Israel blasted Yasser Arafat, yet remained silent about the supplier, Iran, speaks for itself. Unconfirmed sources indicate that whilst this shipment was discovered by, or leaked to Israel, it amounted to the last of five shipments. Four having already been delivered. It is clear that Iran sees itself as playing a far more dominant role in the region, a desire not shared with the United States.

The advances in Iranian missile technology make the presence of US Carrier battle groups in the tight waters  of the Persian Gulf, more risky than ever. The next war fought in the Gulf, according to several leading military experts, will not have the luxury of months of preparation, with no harassment, as did the earlier Gulf War.

Wayne Madsen summed up the situation, with "The United States had better start planning for life without the Saudis. The Bush's and their oily friends have linked to the Saudis for years -- their wealth is largely a result of Saudi oil and the wealth it has generated. Alternative, environmentally sound energy sources are a must. It is also likely that what will replace the Saudis will be a regime that leans heavily in the direction of extreme Wahhabism and Deobandi Sunni thought -- read that as the creed of the Taliban and Osama Bin-Laden."

This editorial by Alan Simpson will appear in the upcoming issue of Eye Spy Magazine, the worlds leading news-stand magazine on Intelligence.

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