Is America winning all the battles, but losing the War?
 
Civil disturbances, bordering on full scale riots in both the traditionally pro-western Kingdoms of Jordan and Saudi Arabia, a worried Sultan of Oman diverting a large part of his military budget towards social programs in the hope of avoiding similar unrest, while Pakistan is riven with a potentially fatal split between the military dictatorship and the Islamic movement are not positive signs of success for Washington.
 
Thousands of Al Qa'ida fighters escaped into Pakistan under the very noses of the United States forces, while many more moved into Iran and have been flown to Syria and then trucked into Lebanon to reinforce Hezbollah in the Beka'a valley. A significant number of Al Qa'ida fighters have also reached the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, shipped by sea along with more Iranian weapons for Yasser Arafat's security forces or crossing over from Jordan.
 
Iran has opened a new era of co-operation with Iraq including communications, railways and air travel, and even more significantly talks on finally releasing the POW's held since the end of the Iraq-Iran war in1988. Saudi Arabia, already a partner of Iran is now slowly edging away from a period of close co-operation with the United States to seek a new understanding with Iraq and indeed has also accepted the safe return of large numbers of Saudi Al Qa'ida.  There are constant reports of Iranian Air Force units now being rotated via Iraq to Syria to boost that nations air defences and that Syrian and Iraqi military officials have established regular contact. A new and potentially important set of alliances are being forged in a direct response to the United States actions in the region.
 
Washington and Tehran on collision course
 
Indeed, the growing animosity between Iran and Washington was highlighted by the recent US attack using two smart weapons against a shipment of Iranian guns, missiles and other munitions housed in the military headquarters of the pro-Iranian warlord Ismail Khan at Qul-i-Urdo in Western Afghanistan. Since Ismail Khan's return to Herat in November, Iran has provided the Afghan currency for him to pay his troops and keep their loyalty. However, Ismail Khan's growing military power has also reawakened ethnic and territorial rivalries. Haji Gullalai, the Pushtun intelligence chief in Kandahar, said the local authorities had raised a force of 20,000 tribal fighters, determined to stop Khan's expansionist ambitions.
 
Washington's concern is very evident that Tehran is building up Ismail Khan's army with the intention of gaining eventually control over much of Western and Southern Afghanistan, while its old ally Pakistan, having 'rescued' most of the Senior Taliban and the Pakistan forces supporting their regime still hopes to re-establish its influence in Eastern and South Eastern Afghanistan. Something that Russia and the Northern alliance will fight to prevent.
 
Afghanistan quickly returning to the bad old days
 
This expected return to sectionalism is mirrored elsewhere in Afghanistan with outbreaks of fighting between Uzbeks of General Dustum's forces and the Tajiks of the Northern Alliance. Equally disturbing is the growing evidence that thousands of well armed Taliban did indeed retreat into the Central and Eastern mountains and are not being seriously pursued by the shaky coalition Government sheltering under international protection in Kabul.
 
The United States has alienated much of the Islamic world, even though publicly many of the nations appear to be neutral if only to maintain the supply of largess from Washington, more seriously Moscow and Bejing are finding a common cause against an apparently dominating and domineering superpower. While neither Russia or China separately or jointly are capable of challenging the United States, they still have a distinct capability to cause trouble for Washington and aid America's enemies. The Bush administration has declared itself committed to a War on Terrorism that could last a generation, but will the American electorate be prepared to pick up the tab?
 
Richard M. Bennett
 
 

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