Afghanistan slowly returns to its old ways

Within just two short months of Washington's delight at having apparently rescued Afghanistan from the medieval regime of the Taliban, fighting has once again erupted in a number of areas as the Warlords compete for power. Already the fracture lines of tribalism have re-opened with anti-Taliban forces on both sides having former Taliban fighters amongst them.

The ominous signs are there for all to see and just as AFI Research has been predicting since December last year. The Taliban regime may have been forced out of power and out of the cities, but they have not disappeared from the equation. The internal situation inside Afghanistan remains chaotic and the Taliban are undoubtedly trying to regroup, form alliances and re-establish themselves.  Their success or otherwise should be a matter of grave importance to the United States and the viability its long-term position in Central and Southern Asia.  A resurgent Taliban in the spring and summer campaigning season would cause them to be treated with great respect amongst the peoples of an increasingly disturbed, uncertain and volatile Muslim world. Extremist's will portray the Taliban vision of Islam as having successfully survived an attack by the worlds greatest superpower with incalculable propaganda benefits among young men throughout the Middle East. The greatest recruiting program for Islamic extremism and international terrorism would be a perception that America for all its military might had not actually defeated the Taliban, in addition to failing to capture Osama Bin-Laden or prevent further Al Qa'ida attacks on US targets.

Defence Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld has admitted that clashes among rival Afghan factions posed new risks to American Special Operations forces and the interim Afghan government, "It is true that there are Afghan factions on the ground that don't get along," Mr. Rumsfeld added. Afghanistan's continuing security nightmare doesn't end there however, interference by Iran in Western and Southern areas has been seen as a positive response to the pressures being exerted on the majority Pashtun peoples by the arrogant actions of the Uzbek and Tajik Northern Alliance helped to a temporary dominance by the US air campaign and the large scale rearmament of its forces by Russia.

Refugee crisis highlights lack of reconciliation

Further signs that the situation in both southern and eastern Afghanistan is once again deteriorating was recently highlighted by the UN Refugee Agency when it warned that thousands of extra Afghan refugees were moving across the borders into the already overcrowded camps inside Pakistan. Aid workers say most are ethnic Pashtuns who claim they are being harassed by the supporters of the new Government in Kabul and are still being targeted by US Special Forces operations and occasional bombing raids. The Aid Agencies desperate to move some 2.5 million refugees back into Afghanistan are now faced with an influx of at least a further 20,000.

This adds yet another complication to the security issue, the border camps and crowded streets of the major Pakistan cities already provide a secure refuge for most of the new generation of leaders of the Taliban and its offshoots. The steady trickle of worn-out senior Taliban giving themselves up will have little effect on those who believe they have proved the long-term invincibility of their fundamentalist beliefs. The Taliban will be back in one form or another just as surely as the chances of the Western imposed administration in Kabul surviving the inherent tribalism of its constituent parts are extremely slim. The murder of the Transport Minister and the inability of the International Force to provide a genuine security environment are clear signs of the incipient decay.

Richard M. Bennett
 
 

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