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Saudi peace initiative - plenty of hype, but what about substance?

Sharon is prepared to meet an emissary from Saudi Arabia to discuss Crown Prince Abdullah's peace initiative according to Javier Solana and George Bush has expressed the hope that moves may at last be under way to bring a halt to the present conflict between the Palestinians and Israelis.  The proposal would seem to require the entire Arab world accepting Israel's right to exist in exchange for a complete withdrawal from the West Bank, Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem. Moderate Palestinians have been quick to endorse the Saudi initiative, saying that it fits their policy of offering Israel full peace for full withdrawal.

Any attempt to halt the violence must be welcomed, but what exactly are the Saudi proposals? When it talks about an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the West Bank does this just mean the military units presently occupying territory handed over to the Palestinian Authority by the Oslo accord or does it mean the dismantling of the hundreds of illegal Jewish settlements erected in the occupied territories in defiance of  United Nations resolutions since the War of 1967 and the military positions that protect them?   Does the initiative address the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who exist in squalid refugee camps, many of them since 1948? Does it return the Golan Heights and its water resources to Syria? If not then what do the majority of Palestinians and the rest of the Arab world including such virulently anti-Israeli States as Iraq, Syria and even Iran have to gain from finally accepting that Israel is here to stay?

Who's kidding who?

Perhaps the main reasons for the proposals being put forward by the Crown Prince at this particular time have more to do with gaining US acceptance for Saudi Arabia's new found independence and its reluctance to become embroiled in an all-out war on Iraq. One might also suggest that the acceptance by Baghdad, Tehran and Damascus of the Israeli state could go some considerable way towards staving off a determined US military assault. Saudi Arabia's new found influence in the Middle East may in part rest on its ability to act as an 'broker' with Washington. However sources close to the Saudi Government have also quietly admitted that the original suggestion for the Saudi initiative may have come from Washington itself after the Bush administration had assessed the results of the discussions held by CIA Director George Tenet with both Sharon and Arafat. Those same sources also comment that the United States may be seeking to gain time in order to provide an overwhelmingly dominant military capability in the Middle East should that still prove necessary and indeed there are continued reports of critical shortages of certain advanced US weapons including JDAM's and cruise missiles.

Following the break-down of the most recent round of Palestinian-Israeli security talks, the Saudi initiative will probably be still-born if it merely suggests that Israel must only withdraw from the lands it occupied in the 1967 Middle East war in return for an comprehensive peace deal. That would probably prove to be a far from acceptable deal for most Palestinians and is unlikely to impress the most antagonistic Arab States. However Washington may still be able to pressure Israel into giving slightly more ground if the mood in the main Arab capitals is in anyway encouraging. Distrust has grown between Riyadh and Washington in recent years, peaking with a near break-down of relations towards the end of last year and the degree of serious interest Washington gives to the Crown Prince Abdullahs 'initiative' could well provide a pointer to US military actions in the near future.

Richard M. Bennett and Marcus Cohen  (Marcus_Cohen10@hotmail.com)

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