"If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear" - George Orwell

Another lurch towards all out war
 
Although Israeli Police and Internal Security authorities were on a heightened state of alert for an expected Islamic terrorist attack during the Passover, the devastating suicide bombing of the Park Hotel in the coastal resort of Netanya in northern Israel as guests gathered for the celebration meal, has come as a mortal shock to the whole country. Despite the increasing ferocity and effectiveness of the Palestinians armed response to the years of political stalemate in the region, the high level of deaths and serious injuries may be the last straw for Sharon and the long-planned military re-occupation of the entire West Bank and Gaza Strip has moved a step closer.
 
While the US envoy General Zinni was visiting the area in mid-March Sharon temporarily scaled down Israel's military activities in the occupied territories, but since then at least 38 Israeli's have been killed and probably 300 injured. These are figures that are unsupportable by Israel's relatively small population and in a macabre form of accountancy the death ratio between Palestinians and Israeli's which had been 25 to 1 in early march, had even before today's tragedy changed to 3 to 1. Unless Washington can quickly turn the economic and military screw on Sharon's Government the chances of a swift and bloody response by Israel's military is very much on the cards.
 
The Palestinians new allies add fuel to the fire
 
Although the Arab summit in Beirut is openly in disarray and its main actor Arafat, was not even on stage, he has still managed to steal the limelight with the help of his new Islamic allies. The Al Qa'ida fighters evacuated from Afghanistan before the start of US military action in October last year and safely transited through both Pakistan and Iran to Hezbollah camps in the Lebanon, have now penetrated Israel and the Palestinian territories in considerable numbers. Their military proficiency has played no small part in the rise in Israeli casualties, particularly amongst service personnel. Indeed, a number of heavily armoured Merkava battle tanks have been destroyed or severely damaged in recent weeks by Arab attackers believed to be from Al Qa'ida.
 
In addition Arafat has accepted considerable help in the form of financial aid, weapons and probably specialist explosives experts and assassins from both Iraq and Iran. It is also believed that unexpected help has appeared in the form of a number Muslim and non-Muslim snipers from both the United States and Europe who have hired out their expert marksmanship to the Palestinians in return for considerable sums of cash from private Saudi supporters.
 
Arafat appears to feel that his days are numbered and has little alternative to raising the stakes.He may also believe that the Palestinians can win a long-term victory by simply avoiding total defeat and capitulation in the face of overwhelming Israeli military dominance. Arafat is banking on the US agenda needing a quick settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on terms that won't alienate a wider Arab public opinion and a growing European impatience with the lack of progress in peace negotiations, to pressure Israel into offering far more acceptable terms. Despite being the 'old man' of Middle Eastern politics, Arafat may have seriously miscalculated and underestimated the true nature of Israel's fear and anger this time.
 
Richard M. Bennett and Marcus Cohen
 
 

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