"If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear" - George Orwell
 

Israel lives by the sword....

Israel is desperate to complete as much of its planned six week military campaign in the West Bank before international pressure on the United States forces President Bush to demand a genuine cessation of the operation. Israel is very aware that little has been achieved so far that will have a permanent effect on the Islamic terrorists. Hamas and other Palestinians groups are already vowing 'retaliation like you have never imagined' and with a traumatized and angry Arab population they are likely to receive even more support and many more volunteers for their suicide bombing campaign.

Sharon has also to balance a coalition Government riven with internal dissent and an Israeli population that like its Palestinian neighbours is traumatized, frightened and angry. However, Sharon remains certain of his base support in the US provided by a powerful Jewish Lobby, a personal relationship cemented with George W Bush during the future President's tour of Israel in 1998 which was guided by the future Israeli Prime Minister and indeed the wholehearted support of Tony Blair. Blair has a long term personal commitment that goes back even before a visit to Israel in January 1994 when it was suggested that the Israeli Government had picked up the bill for both Blair and his wife.

This was just prior to Blair becoming leader of the Labour Party and rumours, not so far denied, suggest that he became to some extent financially reliant on Israel's supporters, in particular to Michael Levy who is believed to have raised some £7 million for Blair. The suggestion that Blair's pro-Israeli stance has had a crucial effect on the Labour Governments policy-making cannot be ruled out and that both Britain and the United States relations with the Muslim world have been greatly damaged by an overly indulgent view of Israel's refusal to obey United Nations resolutions and its human rights record.

Rejects ill-founded international criticism

Israel would rightly argue that those who criticise its actions are not facing determined suicide bombers, nor do they understand the dire military position that would be faced by Israel if it returned to its pre-1967 borders without enforceable international guarantees of its future security. Israel is the only true elected democracy in the Middle East amid a sea of medieval Kingdom's and military Dictatorships and as such usually deserves the benefit of the doubt. Some Western journalists keen to prove their independence and neutrality have highlighted the undoubted involvement of the present Israeli Premier in the Christian Lebanese massacres of 1,500 Palestinian civilians in refugee camps around Beirut in 1982, however how many choose to comment on the events in the Syrian City of Hama in February 1982 when President Assad ordered his security troops to put down a revolt by the Muslim Brotherhood, days later half the city had been totally destroyed and some 25,000 civilians had been killed.

Israel in common with all countries often deserves to be criticized, but it must be based on fairness and a genuine understanding of the regions problems, a fairness and justice that must also be extended to the Palestinians. Israel is probably approaching a point in the operations in the West Bank when any continuation, despite the General Staffs wish to finish the job, will prove highly counter-productive both to its international standing and in the huge boost it has given to the Islamic extremists.

Risks of a widening conflict

Israel too, knows that its northern border with the Lebanon is no longer safe and the risk of a second front opening up against the Hezbollah-Al Qa'ida terrorist network in the Beka'a Valley, the Iranian troops and some 20,000 Syrian Army personnel providing their main defence has grown immensely in recent days. Indeed, even if Sharon does significantly wind down the operations in the West Bank in deference to President Bush and the presence of Colin Powell, the Israeli Cabinet must soon decide whether to extend the campaign to the Gaza Strip, even though a serious conflict breaking out in the densely packed towns and camps of the Strip will bring with it the risk of a major humanitarian disaster and a total break-down of relations with Egypt.

Perversely the very strength and breadth of Israel's anti-terrorist sweep through the West Bank may provide no more than a temporary relief from the suicide bombings, the long term security view is far more pessimistic. The  knee-jerk Islamic attitude will be a determination to exact a bloody revenge, to kill many more Israeli's. It is unlikely that there will be any serious Arab move towards finally accepting the reality of the Middle East and that the world has moved on, particularly since 9-11. Israel is not going to fade away, but equally the Palestinians have a right to a homeland and their refugee's will never be absorbed into the Arab nations that house their wretched camps. The bottom line remains two peoples, one land. It is an intractable problem that demands international intervention, not taking sides.

Richard M. Bennett
 
 

AFI Research, The Ground Floor, 27 The Avenue, Newton Abbot, Devon, TQ12 2BZ, UK.
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Richard M. Bennett is the author of FIGHTING FORCES a review of the worlds leading Armies, including many in the Middle East, published in September 2001 and is available from Barrons of New York  www.barronseduc.com  ISBN 0-7641-5343-9  and the forthcoming ESPIONAGE An encyclopedia of Spies and Secrets, which will be available from Virgin Books later this year.

Richard Bennett Media also provides coverage of specialist domestic Political, Social, and Law & Order issues and acts as consultants for international Film and TV Companies on military and espionage history. If quoting from this Media Briefing in anyway, please ensure that you credit Richard Bennett Media at all times

The AFI Research website lists many of our Associates and Contributors including  'America goes to War' at Orbat.com  and the defence coverage of Milnet.com.

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