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Israel stumbles towards conflict for lack of a viable alternative

Israel would have been foolish indeed if it had deliberately committed a war crime on the West Bank, on territory it knew would be returned to hostile control and where the Palestinians would welcome an investigation by the United Nations and Human rights organizations. That Israel may turn out to be guilty of a massacre of Palestinians is possible and indeed may have occurred during a violent military reaction to the booby-trap bomb that wiped out the best part of an Israeli infantry unit. This is only part of the down-side of Israel's three-week military campaign which has now ended its first phase. It has also traumatized and alienated a new generation of young Palestinians, damaged Israel's democratic reputation across much of the world and despite considerable propaganda to the contrary, achieved few of the targets initially set for the security crackdown. The infrastructure of the Islamic terrorist network is still largely intact, most weapons dumps remain undiscovered and the number of fighters will be quickly swelled by those seeking revenge.

However, had Israel used a truly significant part of its impressive arsenal of heavy weapons, or the tactics employed by Sharon during the invasion of Lebanon in 1982, or perhaps those used by King Hussein and his bloody suppression of the Palestinians during Black September, President Assads destruction of a Muslim uprising in the Syrian City of Hama in 1982 which resulted in upto 25,000 deaths, Saddam Hussein's merciless campaigns against the Kurds or indeed President Nixon's brutal use of B52's to carpet bomb huge areas of Cambodia causing in-numerable civilian casualties, then not only Jenin refugee camp, but much of the surrounding city would have been obliterated resulting in the deaths of many thousands of their inhabitants.

It is important for the critics, though largely justified in attacking Israel's blind belief in the military option, to remember that Sharon has barely moved his massive military machine into first gear yet. What is far more important in the long run is the lack of positive movement on the diplomatic front and the few options that remain for a genuine and workable political settlement. Israel is unlikely to return control of the regions vital water resources to its Arab neighbours, accept a fully independent Palestinian State, dismantle its entire network of hundreds of illegal Jewish settlements on occupied Arab land or accept the return of several million Palestinian refugees to the West Bank and Gaza, and more importantly to their former homes and land within Israel. A further major hurdle remains the non-negotiability of Jerusalem and to further highlight this, there are reports that Israeli's are being encouraged to buy yet more property in Arab East Jerusalem.

Palestinians used as bait for Bin-Ladens ambitions

It would appear that all the fundamental concessions will be demanded from the Palestinians who have already been denied their ancestral land, liberty and a sovereign state for over 50 years. Israel's military crackdown in the last few weeks has done little to encourage a more conciliatory attitude from the Palestinians and in all probability the chances of many more suicide bombings and a wider conflict have been greatly increased. The United States by its restatement of Israel's importance and its wholehearted support for its use of force has crucially highlighted the blatant similarity of their policies towards the Arab problem. Washington risks having its entire strategy towards Iraq and Iran seriously weakened and its long-term position in this vital oil-rich area fatally undermined by a potentially widespread backlash against the US regional presence and its all-pervasive influence.

Perhaps this was indeed the outcome that Al Qa'ida hoped to achieve with its devastating attacks on New York and Washington. To create an unbreakable linkage in the minds of ordinary Muslims around the world, between Israel and the United States. To portray them as having a common cause in some new Anti-Islamic crusade and to ensure that Muslim fighters and civilians would be victims of simultaneous Israeli and American military action. It would therefore be vitally important to keep the Intifada going and to provoke Israel into spreading the conflict. Both Iraq and Iran have a vested interest in preventing peace, as much as some observers suggest Israel needs continuing conflict as an excuse for avoiding having to make painful concessions. If this does indeed turn out to be the Islamic militants intention than its quite possible that Sharon and President Bush have walked right into the trap that Osama Bin-Laden set for them.

Richard M. Bennett
 
 
 
 

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Richard M. Bennett is the author of FIGHTING FORCES a review of the worlds leading Armies, including many in the Middle East, published in September 2001 and is available from Barrons of New York  www.barronseduc.com  ISBN 0-7641-5343-9  and the forthcoming ESPIONAGE An encyclopedia of Spies and Secrets, which will be available from Virgin Books later this year.

Richard Bennett Media also provides coverage of specialist domestic Political, Social, and Law & Order issues and acts as consultants for international Film and TV Companies on military and espionage history. If quoting from this Media Briefing in anyway, please ensure that you credit Richard Bennett Media at all times

The AFI Research website lists many of our Associates and Contributors including  'America goes to War' at Orbat.com  and the defence coverage of Milnet.com.

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