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Intelligence reports on dirty bomb draw media attention once more
and MILNET presents a summary of this and other weapons that lie in a class
somewhere between large explosives and nuclear weapons.
Nasty new weapons class - somewhere between conventional
and nuclear
"A weapon designed to release radiation or radioactivity at a level dangerous to human life."In the mid seventies and throughout the eighties, U.S. and other nuclear weapons developers began to explore the concepts learned from underground nuclear tests as well as, in the case of U.S. developers, some of the effects learned during the neutron bomb (known also as the Enhanced Radiation Weapon -- ERW) development. Well known nuclear effects noted by theses scientists were effects similar to radioactive fallout and a phenomena known as and Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) generated by the atomic blast.
- State of Indiana definitions for weapons of mass destruction, RdWMD.
Radioactive Fallout
An early effect discovered immediately with nuclear weapons research was the transformation of dust and debris into deadly material that could cause long time health hazards. Further research found that almost every type of nuclear blast produced this dangerous material with fission weapons typically producing more than hyrdogen weapons. And of course this also led to the understanding of how to make some bombs more "dirty" than others. Generation of the hazardous material was a direct result of the nuclear explosion itself -- the nuclear chain reaction changing the nature of previously benign material into deadly radioactive material. Dust and debrs became deadly toxins producing immediate death, lingering sickness, or in most cases an onslaught of various forms of virulent cancers.
It was also realized that antoher method for creating such material was a direct result of the nuclear power industry. When fuel rods are removed from a nuclear reactor, the spent rods consisted of nuclear waste. This material while not usefuel for a bomb, is never the less highly radioactive, even more deadly effects than "simple" fallout.
In the sixties and seventies, think tanks looking at new weapons possibilities explored the concept of building a conventional weapon whose goal was to spread toxic material over a widespread area. The typical problems included spreading the material without destroying its toxic abilities. For instance, early tests of biological or chemical dispersion type weapons showed that the temperatures of an explosion tended to sterilize or combust the very material you were hoping to distribute.
But dispersion of nuclear material seemed to be, for the most part, immune to such effects. In fact the burning of nuclear material tends to simply produce radioactive "smoke", very similar to radioactive fallout. In addition, the conventional explosion throws the nuclear material away from the device and thus spreads already radioactive material all around. This material then becomes dangerous to anyone nearby and requires extremely expensive and intrusive cleanup, as well as may cause death from toxic or radiation poisoning.. During the eighties, some experimentation was done in several countries to determine just how to build such a weapon so that an understanding could be had of its effects and to help design defenses against them. A side issue was also looked at -- how to detect them in development, production, and in transit.
In the nineties, defecting Iraq's nuclear scientists brought back stories of a program to develop such a weapon sponsored by Saddam Hussein. The reason for this focus was an Iraqi logistical challenge. For Saddam, nuclear waste procurement was easy -- he already had such waste on hand from nuclear reactors used for power generation in his country. In contrast, weapons grade material required for creating a true nuclear blast was hard to come by. Thus a program was started in parallel with the nuclear bomb program -- a program to develop an RDW using the nuclear waste already on hand.
The radioactive dispersion weapon (RDW) design is actually quite simple. A conventional set of explosives is surrounded by radioactive waste. A timer or altitude detector triggers the blast, which atomizes some portion of the material into an aerosol which travels like cloud, as well as distributes large chunks of un-atomized radioactive material in a wide pattern. Typically the weapon would be designed to be detonated in the air, spreading nuclear waste over a fairly wide area -- say several blocks in city. Since terrorists might not be have the means a device designed as a conventional gravity bomb, a more likely scenario would be weapon designed into a large crate and placed near windows, high in skyscraper. The blast would produce a "spray" of cloud and chunks in a swath out onto the city below.
The target area would be coated -- cars, buildings, streets, you name it. And of course anyone in the area would most likely inhale the radioactive material. Cleanup would require quarantining the area, washing off the waste and isolating runoff so that the radioactive material wasn't swept into local sewage ponds or nearby lakes and waterways. Of course those who came in contact with the material would require decontamination as well, and then some would require lengthy and expensive medical treatment. Some would die.
Unlike a nuclear blast, however, the radioactive weapon will have a very small blast damage area, and ignoring the cleanup issues, only effects a small number of victims. Some killed or wounded by the explosion -- perhaps a few hundred maximum, and then those from secondary effects of contamination. This is in contrast to hundreds of thousands who would be killed and injured in a nuclear blast.
The RDW has more of a terror effect. The thought of exposure to a radioactive source frightens most people more than the possibility of being caught by an explosion. Thus the RDW is an ideal terrorist weapon.
Manufacturing an RDW is quite simple. A trunk or a crate could be made into an RDW. One could mount explosives in a truck and surround those explosives with nuclear waste. While this type of weapon would have extremely limited dispersion, the terror effects remain pretty much the same. As indicated previously, a large crate exploded near the top of a skyscraper, say near a window has a much more large dispersion area. The size of an RDW could be as small as a bomb in an attaché case, to a large crate size bomb. The size will determine the amount of radioactive waste to be distributed around by the explosion. This is what makes the RDW so worrisome. A number of small devices could be planted around a city and produce radioactive hot spots and severe panic. A large single device could be used to "dirty up" an area of two to six blocks in diameter.
Since this type of RDW is totally unsophisticated, anyone can build and deliver this type of weapon as long as they have access to a large enough supply of nuclear waste and explosives. Estimates are that an RDW could be developed and manufactured in three to six months regardless of size as long as the manufacturing facilities were scaled appropriately. Once development was completed production manufacturing could deliver about two devices a week in a single line, assuming you had enough radioactive waste. Aside from the cost for the radioactive waste (if purchase of waste material is required), the device construction could be as low as $600 for a 1 foot square device, to $12,000 for a device upto 4 foot across.
The waste material could range from radioactive slurry in rod production,
to the material from depleted reactor fuel rods which is no longer useful
for power generation and unsuitable for weapons production. While not as
effective, even previously benign material from a reactor that has been
exposed could be used as radioactive shrapnel -- bits of vessel linings,
tools, or infrastructure items from a pile. If radioactive material
is to be purchased on the black market, it could cost hundreds of thousands
of dollars for only a few ounces. Many pounds would be required to
make an effective RDW.
Electromagnetic Weapons
One of the other more important discoveries about the effects of a nuclear
blast has become more important as we have moved fully into the "information
age." A nuclear blast creates an electromagnetic effect called EMP
-- Electro-Magnetic
Pulse. Also, the pulse is followed by an ionization effect which
limits radio signals in the area for up to 72 hours.
The major electronic effect, the pulse, has so much energy that it is highly dangerous to sensitive electronic equipment. Effected the most are semiconductor based devices - computer chips. While certain physical and electrical designs mitigate dramatically the effects of an EMP pulse, protecting against it is quite expensive for each chip. As a result, few devices in commercial use would survive a large EMP. The effects to electronic devices vary from reduced power in radio transmitters or low sensitivity in receivers, to total catastrophic failure of electronic devices such as vehicle ignition systems, computer controls, or communications equipment.
The original idea, thought up in 1927 by Dr. Arthur Compton to study atomic particles, makes use of injection of plasma into low electron count elements. By the mid 1980s, scientists had found ways to build a high energy device that, without resorting to a nuclear blast, could emit a huge EMP. Test drops of devices using B-52s and Cruise Missile airframes demonstrated the feasibility of the technology. A one time explosive device provides kinetic energy required to rapidly build an electromagnetic field through electromagnetic induction rather than through the nuclear chemistry found in a nuclear explosion. A second, low cost technology uses a moving short in a tube fed by a charging system.
The mechanical construction is actually quite simple -- an effective design of such a device can be accomplished by a college graduate in electronics or physics. For that reason, we will not discuss the details for security reasons. Suffice to say that the non-nuclear EMP device can be manufactured anywhere a machine shop and electronic supplies are available. The electronics and explosives, while not available at your local Radio shack or hardware store, are, never-the-less much easier to procure by terrorists than any type of nuclear materials. Build the device's structure, add the electronics and explosives, and all you need is a timer to set off the explosion. Today, universities are already building prototype devices for further exploration of EMP weapons designs as well as non-lethal devices for use by police to disable vehicles. Countries such as India and several other asian nations are working on both devices and countermeasures.
Like the RDW, detonating the EMP device in the air or near the top floors of a skyscraper maximizes the effects. Defenses include Faraday cages (similar to screening in that which is to be protected), however other effects, including one called "late time effect" may be able to get pass the Faraday cage protection.
The EMP bomb is only effective in a finite area about the device. The larger the armature of the device, the larger the electromagnetic field produced. Thus a device could be one foot across and take out very localized equipment, say a control facility or communications system. A device four or five feet across could be used to take out all communications at an airport or from a skyscraper take out the semiconductor devices for several miles in a swath extending out in all unshielded directions.
The EMP device's somewhat sophisticated mix of mechanical and electronics
make
it harder to design and thus given the same starting date for the program
as an RDW, the EMP device would take longer. Estimates are from 6
months to two years. Cost is estimated to around $1000 for a small prototype
to up to $10,000 for a large production line device effective over several
miles. However, several sources indicate that a FCG (Flux Compression
Generator -- the moving short technology) might only cost $400 a device
in a production environment.
Reality and Availability
Today, both EMP and RDW devices are technologically feasible weapons to manufacture. Except for the difficulty for the average person to obtain nuclear wastes, both weapons can be constructed with materials available to governments easily. Through low level black market contacts the two weapons types could today be available to terrorists -- for instance the same dealers who sell terrorists their guns probably would be able to find someone to sell them the electroincs and explosives required for the EMP device. And of course in some cases explosives are already in the arsenals of most terrorist groups. With nations like Iraq, Iran and possibly Libya, Syria, Lebanon, and North Korea who have terrorist connections, the opportunity for both explosives and nuclear waste sales to terrorists is at an all time high.
U.S. Director of Central Intelligence Tenet reported to Congress after 9/11 that while there is no conclusive proof any nation or terrorist group has created either an RDW or and EMP device, there is also an alarming absence of proof that the devices have not been development or in production.. However, recent finds in Afghanistan show that the Taliban or Al-Qaida might have been experimenting with the design and the materials for an RDW.
Since it is expected that at least one nation has begun work on both types of devices over several years ago, it is quite possible the design is available to terrorists today. Construction and delivery ready devices may also be available on the black market.
Statements from public and protected sources lead MILNET to believe
that both RDW and EMP devices will be used by terrorists in the short
term. We evaluate the risk as being high and our confidence in our
sources is also high. Recent efforts by the intelligence community
to find manufacturing facilities for such devices indicate that MILNET
is not alone in its analysis of the risk level.
Sources:
© Copyright, 2002, Michael Crawford, MILNET
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