"If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear" - George Orwell
 

Israel will remain as vulnerable as ever
 
As predicted by AFI Research and other leading sources of Middle Eastern intelligence, the recent Israel military offensive in the West Bank has once again failed to produce significantly improved levels of security and indeed in the long run has probably done considerable damage to any serious chance of peace. In a major set-back to Israel's hopes of success, Islamic terrorists have killed at least 15 and wounded a further 60 or more in a suicide bomb attack on a crowded social club in the town of Rishon Letzion on the southern outskirts of Tel Aviv. The blast occurred shortly after the Israeli Prime Minister had begun a meeting with US President George W Bush in Washington and as a result Sharon is hastily returning home for an emergency Cabinet meeting.
 
The degree of self-delusion in Israel that fire can only be fought with fire is leaving Jerusalem trapped in a no-win situation and despite extraordinary support from Dick Armey, the US Republican majority leader, for a 'Greater Israel' encompassing all the occupied territories and other Arab lands upto the Litani River, fundamentalist Jewish ambitions are fatally flawed and unlikely to prevail. Sooner or probably later, Israel will be forced as a historical necessity to hand back illegally occupied Arab lands, accept the reality of a secular solution and negotiate a peace treaty with the Palestinians on the basis of complete equality.
 
Sharon sees military action as the only option
 
In the meantime, Sharon's Government will feel it has little choice but to punish the Palestinians and, with the full support of the less cerebral members of the Bush administration, will probably seek to establish complete control of the occupied territories, including Gaza in an even more comprehensive military operation. Sharons determination to pursue the Islamic militants 'until they cease to exist' will receive the full backing of the Religious fundamentalists and political hard-liners in the Israeli Cabinet who may now achieve their ultimate aim of finally removing Yasser Arafat, one way or another, and indeed may even be tempted to launch limited pre-emptive strikes on certain neighbouring Arab states.
 
The cost to United States influence in the Middle East however, of Israel's unwillingness to obey countless UN resolutions and its short-sighted reliance on the military option is enormous and Israel's traditional importance to Washington may not long outweigh the counter-productive effects on 500 Million Muslims in the region. Israel is a drain on Washington's financial resources and is in effect permanently on US 'Social Welfare'. Israel would be bankrupt without the huge amounts of US military and economic aid and provides a stark contrast with the potential benefits inherent in any US rapprochement with the populous and oil-rich Arab States. US business is well aware that the prospects for highly lucrative contracts to help rebuild Arab industry, transport infrastructure, communications and the military are dwindling rapidly with every seemingly pro-Israeli action or statement The Whitehouse authorizes. The knock-on effect of the continuing Israeli-Palestinian conflict is without a shadow of a doubt greatly benefiting Saddam Hussein and the Islamic militants,and seriously distorting the prosecution of the 'War on terrorism'.
 
Israel tactical nuclear weapons ready for action?

In a development which if it proves to be true will further raise doubts amongst the more level headed Washington analysts, Israel is reported to have placed deep-penetration Attack Fighters equipped with battlefield tactical nuclear weapons on immediate readiness at an airfield in Galilee. The F16C/D of Squadrons-109, 110 and 117 based at Ramat David south east of Haifa are just minutes flying time from the Syrian capital and large concentrations of military formations. The Israeli intelligence community appear to firmly believe, despite denials coming from European and US sources, that they have “credible intelligence” that both Syria and Iraq following the Beirut “summit” last weekend are preparing to intervene on behalf of the Palestinians.
 
The options open to the Arab's for military action were apparently spelled out by Efraim Halevy, the Director of Mossad during an in-depth briefing given to the Prime Minister, Ariel Sharon just before he left for Washington. Indeed this may also have led to the deployment of nuclear 'mines' on the Golan heights to destroy any potential massive armoured attack by Syria. Mossad are also reported to have expressed concern that Iraq may have some 80 or so suicide pilots with MiG23 or MiG27 aircraft equipped with CBW or primitive 'dirty nuclear' bombs within range of the main Israeli cities and the nuclear facilities at Dimona. Recent movements of Iraqi Republican Guard and Army units, supported by Air Defence assets into the Western Desert when taken in conjunction with Syrian deployments seem to have set alarm bells ringing in the Israeli Defence Ministry.
 
Syrian Army still in defensive positions
 
It is known that the Syrian Army has recently moved its forces, particularly in the Lebanon, into a number of well prepared, but largely defensive positions. As AFI Research has reported in recent months, Syria's Ist Armoured Corps is on a high state of alert and has re-enforced the units based between Damascus and the Golan Heights, but of more significance to the Israeli's is the redeployment of certain major formations of the 2nd Corps which covers the far more vulnerable area to the west of the Capital and the Lebanon. Both the 10th Mechanized Division and a Brigade Group from the 51st Armoured Division are in the central and northern Beqa'a Valley with armoured combat teams straddling the Beirut-Damascus Highway, supported by additional Armoured Brigades, the 27th, 82nd and 87th now positioned between the Syrian border and the strategically important town of Ba'albek. In addition the 47th and 65th Brigades from the 3rd Armoured Division are in position just inside the Syrian border supporting elements of the elite 14th Special Forces Division just north of the disputed Sheba'a Farms area.
 
The Israeli General Staff are of the opinion that the Syrian and Iraqi military deployments may be in advance of a serious ratchetting up of Hizbollah attacks on Galilee and is directly linked to the delivery to the Islamic guerrillas of hundreds of Iranian Fajar-5 surface-to-surface missiles. The Fajar with a range of more than 30 miles (50kms) can threaten Haifa and much of northern Israel, while improved versions are reported to have a longer range and could be fitted with warheads filled with chemical agents. A realistic military view would more likely suggest that such weapons would only be used as a last resort by Hizbollah and that their presence may even prove counter-productive to the Islamic organization as they provide Israel with the perfect excuse for a first strike if the threat of a widening conflict continues to grow.
 
Prospects for peace and an end to the suffering of both the Israeli and Palestinian peoples has once again receded, and with few options left it is expected that Israel will take dramatic military action quite soon. Apparently this blood-soaked 'Holy Land' will see many more deaths and increased destruction before common-sense, reality and hopefully humanity, can take centre-stage in the Middle East.
 
Richard M. Bennett
 
 
 

AFI Research, The Ground Floor, 27 The Avenue, Newton Abbot, Devon, TQ12 2BZ, UK.
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Richard M. Bennett is the author of FIGHTING FORCES a review of the worlds leading Armies, including many in the Middle East, published in September 2001 and is available from Barrons of New York  www.barronseduc.com  ISBN 0-7641-5343-9  and the forthcoming ESPIONAGE An encyclopedia of Spies and Secrets, which will be available from Virgin Books later this year.

Richard Bennett Media also provides coverage of specialist domestic Political, Social, and Law & Order issues and acts as consultants for international Film and TV Companies on military and espionage history. If quoting from this Media Briefing in anyway, please ensure that you credit Richard Bennett Media at all times

The AFI Research website lists many of our Associates and Contributors including  'America goes to War' at Orbat.com  and the defence coverage of Milnet.com.

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