First casualties of a increasingly hostile Media
 
The repeated failure of the Royal Marines anti-terrorist actions in Afghanistan including the latest 'Operation Condor', to achieve any tangible results has played a significant part in the growing row in Britain over their continued presence in that country.  The fortuitous timing of the announcement of a new posting for Brigadier Roger Lane, the Royal Marines field commander has raised suspicions of him being lined up as a convenient scapegoat. The Brigadiers rather prickly and distinctly old fashioned persona also did little to endear him either to his US colleagues or a media conscious Ministry of Defence.
 
In the usual 'kiss of death' for any military career, Brigadier Lane was publicly defended by a senior British politician only on Sunday when Geoff Hoon, the Minister of Defence, said he had "complete confidence" in the Royal Marine commander and played down persistent rumours that he faced mounting pressure to sack him. Hoon dismissed as "nonsense" reports that the mission to Afghanistan had turned into a farce under the Brigadier's leadership, in which Afghan allies had their ammunition dumps destroyed and claims of British involvement in firefights against Al Qa'ida and Taliban fighters had turned out to be nothing more than military ballyhoo.
 
There are many in Parliament and the British media who while conceding that Brigadier Lane's style of leadership may not be ideal, freely admit that he was given an unenviable task it what was in reality a politically motivated operation with little or no military justification. It has all the hallmarks of a typical political blame limitation exercise, 'hanging a field commander out to dry' and ensuring that despite vigorous denials emanating from the Labour government, Brigadier Lane will be held to blame for failing to provide Mr Blair, hot on being seen as a Thatcher-style 'War Leader', with another famous victory to share with his buddy in The Whitehouse. Lane will be succeeded by Brigadier Jim Dutton, who is currently working as a liaison officer to US Central Command in Florida and who is reported to have already built up a good relationship with the US General Tommy Franks, in overall command of the Coalition forces in the Persian Gulf area.\

The knives are also out at Langley

The first major effects of the intelligence disaster of 9-11 are soon to be felt by a nervous CIA as the replacement of Cofer Black as Director of the CTC or Counter-terrorism Center is confidently expected to be only the first of a major series of dismissals and sideways promotions aimed at changing once and for all the 'risk avoidance' culture firmly embedded at the Langley headquarters. Black has had a long and it is claimed, a 'highly successful' career in covert operations for the CIA and played a role in France's capture of Ilich Ramirez Sanchez, a.k.a.Carlos the Jackal, once the world's most wanted terrorist, but Black is believed to have failed to have won the approval of the President's 'war cabinet'.

The Counter-terrorism Center has doubled its staff since the start of the War on Terrorism, however the influx of enthusiastic, but inexperienced officers from other sections of the intelligence community has done little to improve the overall effectiveness of a largely desk bound organization wedded to the use of high technology. The appalling lack of good analytical or linguistic skills amongst a high percentage of staff has ham-strung the CIA's efforts to counter the threat of international terrorism and no amount of budget increases or additional officers can be expected to overcome the inertia of bad management, poor leadership and a chronic lack of first-rate human intelligence sources.

The 'blood-letting' inside the United States intelligence services will probably lead eventually to a wholesale change of leadership and a return to the interventionist style of the 1950's and 1960's not only in the CIA, but also the FBI. Intelligence analysts suggest a slow move away from the blanket reliance on the NRO's satellites and the worldwide communications monitoring and interception networks of the NSA, towards a more balanced use of a wide variety of intelligence sources including human espionage and moles placed within hostile services and organizations. However, the slim chances of quickly achieving such penetration of dedicated terrorist groups will mean that the CIA may be blind to much of the international threat to the USA for many years to come.

Richard M. Bennett

Richard M. Bennett is the author of FIGHTING FORCES a review of the worlds leading Armies, including many in the Middle East, published in September 2001 and is available from Barrons of New York  www.barronseduc.com  ISBN 0-7641-5343-9  and the forthcoming ESPIONAGE An encyclopedia of Spies and Secrets, which will be available from Virgin Books later this year.

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