AFI Research Intelligence Briefing for the 27th May 2002

Indian Sub-Continent teeters on the edge of War

As speculation continues to grow about the likelihood of a potential nuclear conflict developing from any major Indian anti-terrorist campaign inside the Pakistan held areas of Kashmir, there is an unfortunate misunderstanding of the military realities amongst much of the worlds media.  Tables showing India with an overwhelming superiority in manpower, tanks and combat aircraft, with colourful graphs on the TV News indicating the movement of the Indian fleet into the Arabian Sea to blockade Pakistan's main seaports all add to the belief, indeed fostered by Islamabad that Pakistan may be forced into a first use of nuclear weapons because of the sizeable conventional imbalance in India's favour.

In fact nothing could be further from the truth. India has a vast and troubled land mass to police, borders with Burma (Myanmar) and a Nepal racked by a Maoist rebellion, but much more importantly and strategically vital are several long borders with Communist China. Beijing keeps several hundred thousand well armed and trained troops on India's northern borders and in small enclaves captured in previous conflicts. The Chinese also lay claim to considerable additional areas of northern India and these defensive commitments alone tie down large numbers of India's front line troops and aircraft well away from the potential battleground with Pakistan. Indeed, as much of the northern border area's are mountainous the defending Indian troops would be ideal for the combat conditions in Kashmir, however while China remains a close ally of Islamabad there is little real chance of the re-deployment of any of these much needed Indian units. The cities of Northern India are vulnerable not only to Pakistan, but also to Chinese air attack and cities such as Calcutta well away from the western battle zone still draw off considerable numbers of air defence aircraft from any air war with Pakistan.

Pakistan's inbuilt military advantage

Pakistan, on the other hand, free of its Afghan commitments can concentrate much of its smaller, though still considerable armed forces near the Line of Control in Kashmir and further south along the border with India, while its Air Force is only required to defend a much smaller geographical area. Indeed, in many vital zones and important choke points for any prospective Indian attack, Pakistan may well be able to achieve considerable local superiority in both manpower and equipment. Pakistan will also have shorter lines of communication, logistic re-supply and indeed the support of tens of thousands of Islamic terrorists operating both behind the Indian front line and within Jammu & Kashmir itself. The opportunities for supporters of both Kashmir separatism and Osama Bin-Ladin to carry out a reign of terror and sabotage within Indian territory is immense and must surely be a major factor shaping any future Indian offensive.

India may well seek to limit the planned offensive to trapping and destroying the Islamic militants in the mountains and valleys of the territory just over the Line of Control, with the minimum possible contact with regular Pakistan troops. However, this may well prove to be an unattainable goal and a full scale conflict is likely to develop within Kashmir and indeed spread along the international frontier between the two states. Air attacks at first limited to ground support are likely to soon involve strikes on each others airfields, communications and rear support areas. The risk that an escalation towards strikes on the main Cities leading to an eventual exchange of tactical nuclear weapons cannot be entirely ruled out, particularly if either Indian or Pakistani combat forces find themselves at a serious disadvantage later in the conflict. It is this risk that must now be quickly addressed by the leaders of the worlds major nations and though the opportunities from temporarily easing tension between India and Pakistan are still there, any chance of reaching a genuine settlement of the Kashmir problem are virtually nil and the region, though it might escape an all out conflict this time will continue to remain a hugely dangerous flashpoint for the foreseeable future.

Richard M. Bennett
 

AFI Research provides comprehensive coverage of the regional Military Balance, with up-to-date orbat, weapons and likely battle zones. Full coverage is given of both India and Pakistan's Intelligence and Security services, missile programs and weapons of mass destruction. Contact AFI Research for more details
 

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ESPIONAGE- An encyclopedia of Spies and Secrets, ISBN 1 85227 942 7
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FIGHTING FORCES a review of the worlds leading Armies, including many in the Middle East, published in September 2001 which is available from Barrons of New York www.barronseduc.com  ISBN 0-7641-5343-9

Both written by Richard M. Bennett
 

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