A proliferation of threats

Venezuela - a coup in the making

Rumours abound of a new coup in the making involving dissident Military Officers, leading businessmen and the clandestine participation of the United States Government. Plans are believed to be well advanced and it is conceivable that some public event, such as the anti-government protests planned on July 11th, will be chosen. President Chavez has placed troops loyal to his regime on alert, while the DISIP Security Service are actively keeping suspected conspirators under close surveillance. However, the large scale arming of many of the Presidents supporters could lead to a civil war in the event of a successful coup d'etat.

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Afghanistan dissolves into feudal conflict

The recent assassination of a Pashtun Vice President of the new Government in Kabul and the admission that there have been planned attempts to kill President Karzai have highlighted the slow collapse of confidence that the US led Operation Enduring Freedom will eventually achieve the creation of a truly democratic state in Afghanistan. The return to power of brutal Warlords and the splitting of the country into ethnic enclaves has already ensured added bitterness between the northern tribes and the largely Pashtun south. Intelligence estimates suggest that far from being routed between 10,000 and 30,000 Taliban fighters and their well armed international volunteers are still active in many parts of Afghanistan. Despite the constant mis-identification of these foreign Muslims as Al Qa'ida, most of Osama Bin-Ladin's terrorists had been safely scattered throughout the world long before the first US bombs were dropped on their empty training camps in October 2001.

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Al Qa'ida claim to be close to new terror attacks

In the last 24 hours an audio tape of a phone interview in Arabic with Al Qa'ida spokesman Abu Laith al-Libi contained the barely veiled threat of new attacks and has highlighted the growing suspicion that Al Qa'ida have indeed survived very largely intact the US onslaught of the last ten months; though disrupted and harassed, Osama Bin-Ladins worldwide network of sleepers, clandestine cell structure, safe houses and links with other terrorist groups is near operational readiness again......

"We the mujahideen in general are getting ready to begin the next phase in what is termed in military science the phase of guerrilla warfare. We are trying to develop the fronts, where fighting was marked by skirmishes. We are now developing the fronts along all lines to make it a large-scale war - the war of ambushes, assassinations, and operations that take place in the most unexpected places for the enemy. We are succeeding in that, thanks to God's graces and the cohesion, affiliation, solidarity of the mujahideen, both Arab and Afghan.What we see is full cohesion. We have succeeded in establishing bases behind the enemy and inside its collapsing fortresses. Thank God also we have succeeded in reaching the phase of destroying bases and ammunition dumps and carrying out combat operations and assassinations. We have managed to carry out successful operations, praise be God. We ask God Almighty to bless our new operations, guide our shooting, straighten our opinions, and consolidate our steadfastness. For He is Omnipotent. ...

I also bring you the good tidings that in a day or two you will hear about a new epic. I pray to God Almighty to accept the deeds of the mujahideen. ...The amir of the believers threatened several people, including Gul Aga. He threatened him that if he continued with his policy of persecuting the mujahideen and hurting their families he would kill him. Gul Aga fled from the whole region. We do not know where he is now. Some say he left for the UAE and others say he left for Saudi Arabia. Only God knows where he is"

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AFI Threat & Conflict Analysis Team

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