Ryan Mauro - 2008 Presidential Race Analysis

Although our main expertise is with geopolitics and national affairs, who can resist watching the 2008 presidential race begin? Fundraising and campaigning began the day after the 2004 elections, bringing several candidates to the forefront. As of now, Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana; Governor Mark Warner of Virginia; former Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle; and former Senate majority leader Bill Frist have all dropped out. Of these, Warner was the most surprising, as he was quickly becoming simultaneously the "anti-Hillary" candidate, and probably the most electable candidate. Senator Barack Obama of Illinois has filled in that gap, catapulting to the #2 spot in national polls, after announcing he was considering a presidential bid after ruling out such a notion throughout 2006.

Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas is set to announce on January 20th that he is seeking the Republican nomination for president. He can credibly claim to be the true conservative candidate, but is he electable? Does he have the charisma necessary to win? He'll have to make that case very quickly, as the Mormon Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney tries to establish himself as the "conservative challenger," although he has made some blood boil by revelations of how he championed gay rights to the Log Cabin Republicans during his Senate race against Ted Kennedy. We personally feel this isn't a flip-flop as Romney has consistently supported civil unions but not gay marriage, although it is hard to deny a flip-flop on abortion.

Most polls show former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani slightly leading Senator John McCain, particularly after McCain's endorsement of a troop surge in Iraq. Additionally, new polls showing that Hillary Clinton is catching up to McCain nationally has to hurt the candidate. Depending on which poll you believe, Senator Barack Obama or John Edwards would defeat either McCain or Giuliani at this point. However, head-to-head national match ups are not important at this stage, as the more rigorous aspect of the campaigns have not begun.

We have not included Al Gore or Condoleezza Rice as candidates, due to their apparent disinterest in the positions, although there's been more rumors lately of a Rice candidacy.

1) Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani (has formed an exploratory committee). Popular due to security issues now, but will dwindle when the conservative media targets his liberal social views. We also predict, in disagreement with most pundits, electability will become an issue, due to his past divorces and issues of being faithful. We also feel some will make the case that the GOP would lose the White House race as conservatives abandon the GOP for a third party.

2) Senator John McCain of Arizona (has formed an exploratory committee). He is hurting nationally due to advocating an increase in the troop levels in Iraq, but if it works, his poll numbers should go back up. If it does not work, McCain will have to find another way to criticize the conduct of the war that he has long supported. McCain's greatest hope is that he looks like an acceptable conservative due to Giuliani's liberal views. Some may also make the case that he won't bring the GOP to victory in 2008 as conservatives will move to a third party.

3) Ex-Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts (has formed an exploratory committee). He has hit a road bump lately due to increased media attention regarding his flip-flop on abortion and his avocation for gay rights. Mitt Romney's best hope is, ironically, that he remains in third place for awhile. As the frontrunners in 2003 and 2004 realized, it is the most difficult spot to be in. If Giuliani and McCain get the negative media spotlight over the next year, that will allow Romney to rise to the top, overshadowing the other conservatives, and not give the conservative base a whole lot of time to find a more acceptable candidate.

4) Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas (will announce his candidacy on Jan. 20). With the exit of Bill Frist and the self-destruction of Rick Santorum and George Allen, Brownback is the favorite of the most conservative of the GOP base, although concerns about his support for a guest worker program for immigration are rising, along with questions about his electability and charisma. Brownback's biggest challenge is keeping other right-wing conservatives out of reach for the nomination, as seen below.

5) Ex-Senator Newt Gingrich of Georgia. He may miss his time as he said he won't make a decision on whether to run until September. He is great at articulating and creating solutions to national problems, and is truly a conservative candidate. However, like Brownback, he will have major issues as to whether he is electable or not.

6) Governor Mike Huckabee of Alabama. Also trying to claim the "conservative mantle," he is being compared to Sam Brownback, only being more electable. His PAC has had some impressive fundraising results lately. His main hope is that he sparks the "fire" that Brownback will fail to, allowing him to become the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney.

7) Representative Duncan Hunter of California (announced his candidacy). He also wants to be Romney's conservative challenger, and has become the first candidate to run political ads. However, he has low name recognition, low fundraising capabilities, and according to some observers, is angling more for a prestigious position in a Republican administration in 2008. Watch the candidates below him to surpass him as they announce their candidacies, because the only reason Hunter is getting attention currently is because he is the only one to be officially in the race.

8) Representative Tom Tancredo of Colorado. A favorite of the right-wing blogs, he has impressive support considering he has done virtually nothing to advance his candidacy. He could quickly run up to the #4 or #5 slot if he caused the media to notice his potential candidacy more. Tancredo has said he will only run if someone else does not take up his primary issues (immigration and border enforcement). He appears to be highly angered by the current GOP, and should a candidate win the nomination who is not strict on immigration, don't rule out a third party candidacy by him.

9) Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska. He is a conservative, but has greatly angered the GOP base by his criticism of the war in Iraq. Should the GOP base turn sharply against the war, which is a possibility, Hagel could catapult as the candidate who was right from the beginning.

10) Ex-Governor Jim Gilmore of Virginia (formed an exploratory committee). Also trying to claim the title as Mr. Conservative, he is claiming he has the national network and conservative credentials to be the GOP's pick.

11) Ex-Governor George Pataki of New York. He is not being welcomed by the GOP base due to his liberal social views, but may run to try to claim the role of the "centrist" although that role seems to be all but taken up by Giuliani and McCain. There is a strong chance he will realize this and not run.

12) Ex-Governor and HSS Secretary Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin (formed an exploratory committee). He hopes that health care will become a bigger issue in 2008, in which case he may carry credentials the other candidates do not. The chances of that happening seem to be close to nil.

13) Ex-Governor Frank Keating of Oklahoma. Rumored by Robert Novak to be considering a possible bid, but it is hard to see what ground is left for him to claim.

1) Senator Hillary Clinton of New York. Nationally still holds a nice lead, but Barack Obama and John Edwards are quickly moving to the top. Recent polls showing her tied with Obama in New Hampshire and running fourth in Iowa are horrible news. Her previous support for the war in Iraq and her huge issue of electability seem to be causing her much pain. Democrats want a new, fresh face. Clinton has said she regrets her vote for the war in Iraq, as she correctly saw anger growing on the left-wing for her hawkish stand. Clinton must move to the left, because her current bragging rights of being a centrist have been trampled on by other self-proclaimed centrists like Edwards and Obama.

2) Senator Barack Obama of Illinois. He's quickly catching up to Hillary in the polls, and is in a very unique position. Americans seem to desperately want a new face, and thus, may overlook his lack of experience. His lack of a record will come in handy as he can create whatever image he wants to be, and he also has a very peculiar position: He's very liberal, which is good for the base, and is viewed as electable and moderate (due to his more polite anti-Bush rhetoric) at the same time. No matter what course he decides, he's without a doubt a major contender for the VP slot.

3) Ex-Senator John Edwards of North Carolina (candidacy announced). He is the one most hurt by an Obama candidacy, but his populist message and level of experience (I never thought I'd say that) sets him aside as a more likely alternative to Hillary Clinton. The big question is whether Democrats will set aside their devotion to Obama for a more electable and experienced candidate. In order to make this happen, Edwards must convince voters that he is not responsible for the loss to President Bush in 2004, and that it was mainly John Kerry's fault. It's a sad fact, but it must be said that the fact that he is a white and has a southern accent will appeal to Democrats who want to win in 2008, due to a feeling that an African-American liberal won't stand a chance in the south.

4) Governor Tom Vilsack of Iowa (candidacy announced). He is hoping that a win in Iowa will create enough momentum to carry him through the other states. Some observers feel that Vilsack will attempt to make energy independence his issue. His candidacy will suffer as other second-tier candidates get into the race.

5) General Wesley Clark of Arkansas. He has an impressive grassroots support network, especially on the Internet. His national security credentials certainly can not be competed against among the Democrats. Had he gotten into the 2004 race earlier, he very likely could have been their presidential candidate (and won) in 2004. Clark could very well be the dark horse in the race, and a possible VP pick.

6) Senator Christopher Dodd of Connecticut. He's getting some media attention but will Democrats really want a Northeast liberal as a candidate again? It's hard to see what Dodd brings to the table.

7) Senator Joseph Biden of Delaware. He's got national security credentials that will accelerate his candidacy, but a Clark candidacy could quickly put a stop to that. Being from Delaware, Biden must try to avoid the Northeast liberal label. In 2007, as Biden goes head-to-head with the Bush Administration on foreign affairs, he may take away the media spotlight that Clark would need in order to win, making Biden the "national security candidate."

8) Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico. In an instant, he may be able to capture the Hispanic vote, and he also has foreign policy experience and a moderate reputation for taking some action against illegal immigration. He has also made very honorable comments about the spread of freedom in the Middle East, while still keeping his anti-war stance. However, Richardson has not been aggressively promoting a candidacy, although most would agree he has a good chance as a VP.

9) Congressman Dennis Kucinich of Ohio (candidacy announced). He is the most anti-war candidate and supports cutting off the funding for the war in order to bring the troops home immediately. As the movement for an immediate withdrawal increases, his celebrity and Internet following could propel his candidacy. He does the top tier candidates a favor by making them seem more moderate. although they'll have to move further left if his assaults become damaging enough.

10) Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts. He probably won't run as he has to acknowledge how much damage the "botched joke" did to his image. He was gaining steam, but then Democrats saw how he has a tendency to make mistakes that are played out in the media very negatively. Unless he can convince voters that the election was stolen from him through the voting machines, he'll have a hard time winning the electability argument.

11) Ex-Senator Mike Gravel of Alaska (candidacy announced). No chance by any stretch of the imagination, but he hopes to bring attention to his National Initiative and tax reform ideas. There is some possibility that he'll take some of Kucinich's support as he advocates an immediate withdrawal of all soldiers from Iraq.