It has been reported that Iran freed Saad Bin Laden, Osama's oldest son, from house arrest in late July to help Hezbollah wage a war against Israel by moving to Lebanon, however, no sources confirm this. Reports soon after claimed Saad was in Iran consulting with representatives of the regime. Meanwhile, Iran’s nuclear program continues. A United Nations report revealed that on October 22, 2005, a huge shipment of U-238 was seized in Tanzania emanating from Lumbumbashi mines in Congo, destined for Iran’s Bandar Abbas port. Of course, some blogs that are routinely critical of any evidence against an enemy has mocked the evidence as being reminiscent of the claims of Iraq seeking uranium from Africa. Fortunately, the Iranian opposition continues to move ahead. More opposition groups are rising up, particularly the Azadegan group led by Dr. Assad Homayoun. Dr. Homayoun is seeking for Western political support, and said he’d refuse financial aid. While this is certainly a positive development, ideally the disparate Iranian opposition groups must become more unified as a bloc, which would enhance its quality, as opposed to quantity. Hopefully, the rumors of talks between the son of the Shah, Reza Pahlavi, and the grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini are true, and the opposition will become unified and the greatest threat the mullahs can imagine. Some U.S. military generals dismiss Iran’s role in Iraq’s insurgency, and others are open about it. The evidence is clear regarding Iran’s role, and any U.S. military general downplaying Iran’s role is either doing so for political reasons or is incompetent. In mid-August, for example, the Iraqi al-Zara TV station reported that hundreds of Iranian-made mortar shells and Katyushas had been seized in Umm Qasr. Fortunately, the average Iraqi Shiite is not supportive of the mullahs. Two Shiite parties issued a strong condemnation of Iran. The Islamic Allegiance Party, led by the cleric Mahmoud Abdul Ridha al-Hassani (who is also anti-Amercian) and the Fadhilla bloc in Basra may have sparked a new campaign issue among battling Shiite parties: Which parties can be trusted to work for the interests of Iraq, and not Iran? According to Arab publications, the reason Israel had such a tough time detecting (and combating) Hezbollah’s tunnel complexes was because of North Korean assistance. The Al-Sharq Al-Awsat paper quoted a high-ranking Iranian Revolutionary Guard officer as confirming the North Korean role on July 29, 2006. Much has been made of the intelligence failures on Israel’s part during the war against Hezbollah. The author’s sources indicate that the most significant failure was political. The Israeli political leadership was involved in making military decisions, second-guessing military leaders at every turn. The war plan was scaled back in quantity and quality. As a result, the region now has an emboldened Hezbollah, a devastated Lebanon, and an Israel that has gained nothing. To be fair, Hezbollah may be temporarily weakened, and we must note that, while the Lebanese population is furious at Israel’s campaign, we may see a weakening of Hezbollah’s support. Amer Taheri has written that the March 14 movement, the dominant bloc in parliament, is calling for an investigation into how the war began (a move meant to blame Hezbollah); why Hezbollah’s Christian political ally, Michel Aoun, has called for their disarmament; and why leading Shiite intellectuals and figures are condemning Hezbollah. Hopefully, Israel’s campaign will have begun the end of Hezbollah’s status as an admired party among the Lebanese Shia. Africa The radical Islamic Courts remains in control of Somalia, gaining control over the eastern ports. The benefits to Al-Qaeda from this are hard to over-emphasize. And if he is to be believed, the official prime minister of Somalia (who is in the Mogadishu area, which Ethiopia has threatened to defend) has claimed that the Islamic militants were supplied with weapons by Libya, Iran, and most shockingly, Egypt. The Egyptian role, if true, is confusing as it is difficult to fathom how the developments in Somalia benefit the Mubarak regime, unless he hopes his homegrown Islamic radicals move there. Last month, we reported on how Saudi money played a role in the takeover of Somalia. Asia This month, North Korea moved to test a nuclear weapon. It is probably not a coincidence this occurred at the same time that Iran prepared its response to the UN-backed deals to dismantle their uranium enrichment program. In the past, when overtures were made to Iran, North Korea ratcheted up the rhetoric, and vice versa. Given the very close working relationship between the two rogue states, we can’t rule out some sort of coordination in their diplomatic activities. We also cannot rule out a North Korean nuclear test on behalf of Iran, as a way for Iran to test their jointly developed technology, and North Korea’s potential as a covert supplier of such technology. Such a move would be most intelligent, as it allows the ongoing diplomatic dance regarding Iran to continue, while bringing further attention to North Korea, attention which Kim Jong-Il does not appear to mind. On the China side of the equation, news reports indicate ongoing preparations for nuclear war. It must be noted that China’s expensive preparations for such an event means the Communist leaders do not see such a war as outside the realm of possibility. Among China’s preparations is the construction of a vast bunker network beneath Shanghai that can shield 200,000 people from a nuclear attack. It is one million square feet in size and connected to subways, apartment buildings, even shopping centers. The site is meant to support life for that number of people for up to two weeks. Latin America Perhaps even more significantly than Iran’s relationship with North Korea, is Iran’s relationship with Hugo Chavez of Venezuela. In late July, Iran gave Chavez the highest state-awarded medal, in yet another example that Islamic radicals have no problem cooperating with radicals of different ideologies. Chavez received it with an anti-American speech, including the line, “Let’s save the human race, let’s finish off the U.S. empire.” Iran is developing the deadliest bloc of alliances since the Axis Powers. Hugo Chavez also inked a $3 billion arms deal with Russia this month, and continues speaking of a defense bloc similar to NATO, possibly by expanding the scope of Mercosur or using it as a stepping stone to a more formal alliance. Current Mercosur members are Venezuela, Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay. The associate members consist of Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. It is unlikely, given the splits among these members that Mercosur will turn into a Latin American NATO any time soon. However, it is possible Chavez will use it to develop an alternate pact. Increased speculation occurred as Fidel Castro’s health declined and power was ceded to Raul Castro. Despite his statements admiring how China liberalized its economy, one must remember why he admires it—it increased the power of communism. Raul Castro will be little different than Fidel. For example, Raul was identified as the head of a major cocaine smuggling deal in 1993, after a major drug lord, Carlos Lehder, said in 1991 that he met twice with Raul for the deal. Colombian drug lords agreed to pay a fee to use Cuban waters and airstrips to smuggle drugs into the United States. According to the deal, 7.5 tons of cocaine would be smuggled over a decade. 1. Die Welt, August 2, 2006. 2. Iran Focus, August 16, 2006. 3. Washington Post, August 19, 2006. 4. Associated Press, July 25, 2006. 5. Local6.com, July 31, 2006. 6. ABC, August 14, 2006. |