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Iraq Pre-War Intelligence Update
Readers sent me some very intriguing articles this month. One contained an excerpt of pages 118 to 121 from former UNSCOM inspector, Scott Ritter's book EndGame, from the days before he became an anti-war activist. Ritter describes how, in June of 1997, top-secret documents found in a school operated by Mukhabarat's Directorate M-21, near Abu Ghraib, revealed extensive plans to commit terrorism. It described terrorist operations being carried out by Iraqi intelligence, mostly against the Kurds. One document included a request that the Iraqi army obtain Iranian land mines for use in explosives attacks overseas so that Iran would be blamed for the terrorism. Also described in the documents were wiretap operations, the ambushing of moving convoys, and designs for mines disguised to look like toys.
A colleague also sent us an excerpt from an article by Bill Gertz. in the Washington Times of November 24, 1992, entitled "Iraqis Practice Terror, Training Camps Violate Ceasefire".It was not long after the Gulf War that Iraq began sponsoring terrorism again, despite the ceasefire terms. The report discussed how a base near Baghdad was being used to train terrorists.
According to Olivier Guitta, the reputable Kuwaiti newspaper, Al-Seyassah recently reported that, according to European intelligence sources, Syria has an "advanced" nuclear program at a secret site in the province of Al-Hassaka. The report stated that the program was utilizing Iraqi material shipped by Uday and Qusay Hussein, before and during the Iraq War, bluntly stating that this is why no evidence of the Iraqi nuclear program has been found. The report also states that British sources in Belgium confirmed that the nuclear program employs experts from Iran and the former Soviet Union, as well as 60 Iraqis, who fled to Syria in 2003. The British sources claim that German intelligence confirmed their reporting.
A credible military source has told us of additional evidence that Iraq's WMDs went to Syria. This source claims he spoke to a former Iraqi Intelligence Service captain in October of 2004, in al-Qaim, on the western border with Syria. The former captain had just joined the National Guard as a lieutenant-colonel and told our source that, between February and March 2003, he saw several convoys move into Syria via discreet routes. The captain said he believed they contained WMD based on what the convoys looked like, how they were guarded, and the routes they took.
Our source stated the Iraqi captain had no reason to lie, as he offered the information casually, and was not offered any compensation in return for the information. Our source also stated that the Iraqi captain's testimony corroborates classified intelligence that he saw from that time. Contact with the former Iraqi captain was lost a few weeks later and he has not been heard from since.
Middle East
Obviously, the biggest news this past month was that Saddam Hussein was executed. His execution, at the beginning of the Sunni holiday of Id, caused outrage, and to some degree, this can be seen as understandable. Fortunately, most Sunnis angered by the execution have not turned to violence. The demise of Saddam Hussein is a significant event, as it will, hopefully, put to rest the common fear among Iraqis that Saddam would return (possibly with US assistance), and that, finally, justice has been served. It also helped delineate the motivations among the insurgents.
If leveraged appropriately, anger among the insurgents over Saddam's execution could be utilized to discredit their claims that they are fighting against US occupation, and for the well-being of the Sunni Arabs. Instead, they should be characterized as simply seeking a return to a Ba'athist dictatorship. Not surprisingly then, the Ba'athist resistance, utilizing web sites located in Yemen, has announced Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri as the successor to Saddam.
Al-Douri was a vice president under Saddam and fled to Syria. Last year, intelligence sources informed us that Al-Douri was in Damascus and, that the Coalition had pinpointed the precise location of his safe house, but did not want to strike a target in the capitol of another country. Most analysts agree that Al-Douri is still in Syria, although some think he is in Yemen.
Al-Douri is an excellent example of collaboration between the Ba'athists and Al-Qaeda. In an interview with Time, on July 24, 2006, Al-Douri praised Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, stating that he agreed with al-Zarqawi's goals and that they both held to the same religious ideology. He said his disagreement with Zarqawi was solely limited to tactics and means, as al-Douri opposed the sectarian violence.
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This month there was a lot of political maneuvering to replace Iraqi Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki, who is being widely criticized for not handling the sectarian violence properly, and having close ties to Moqtada al-Sadr. A new political coalition was being formed that would be led by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, although he would not be prime minister.
The new parliament would not include Sadrists, as they, being in control of key ministries, were seen as a destabilizing force inside the government. The alliance was to include Al-Hakim's religious Shiite SCIRI party, Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi's Sunni Iraqi Islamic Party, and the Kurdish parties.1 Rumors also indicated that Iyad Allawi and his secular Shiite party was willing to throw its support behind the alliance.
Iraqi political maneuvering continues to deal with the Mehdi Army of Moqtada al-Sadr. Al-Maliki has not been replaced yet, probably because there is either progress in negotiations with al-Sadr, or al-Maliki is promising to change his attitude towards the Mehdi Army. While all this is transpiring, according to al-Arabiya, Iran sent another $275 million to the Mehdi Army in the past two months, along with shipments of weapons and ammunition.2
Another reason for the faltering of the new moderate political bloc that emerged was the capture, in Iraq, of the four Iranians suspected of coordinating attacks against the Iraqi Security Forces and Multi-National Forces. The two Iranian diplomats were released, however the other two were high-level Iranian military officials (our sources say they are part of the Revolutionary Guard's Al-Quds Force). Iraqi President Jalal Talabani was extremely angered by these revelations, having personally invited the Iranian diplomats. The two Iranian military officials were taken to the head of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim's compound.3
The previous US embrace of the SCIRI, as an alternative to the Mehdi Army, is now being questioned. Will the US embrace the more moderate SCIRI, who like the Mehdi Army, also has ties to Iran?
Iran does not solely sponsor Shiite militants, though. An American soldier in Iraq has described to us how, upon entering Sadr City, his unit engaged Sunni militants who appear to have used the area as a base (possibly using Hezbollah camps). He described how the city is on "lock down" and he considered it to be highly unlikely that their presence was not known.
On December 26, Richard Miniter wrote for Pajamas Media that, as our readers have long known, bin Laden's oldest son, Saad, is in Iran. However, he mentioned a fact we failed to address: Saad is married to the daughter of an Iranian Revolutionary Guards general. This is a stinging rebuttal to those who claim radicals of differing ideologies do not abide any interaction.
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It would appear there will be a troop increase in Iraq, which we feel is eminently necessary. WorldThreats.com has endorsed the Kagan-Keane plan for victory in Iraq. Representative Silvestre Ryes, who will be the Democratic chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, has rejected the idea of a timetable for US troops to withdraw, and has stated that he wanted to see an increase of 20-30,000 troops in Iraq to fight the militias.
Initially, this caused many analysts to support Ryes, but lately he has been disappointing, as one reporter published that Rep. Ryes claimed that Al-Qaeda was mostly Shiite, and that Hezbollah was Sunni. Rep. Ryes appeared extremely ignorant of the basic knowledge one must possess in order to understand the War on Terrorism.
There is a considerable amount of competent ideas coming from the Department of Defense for Iraq:
Given that al-Sadr did not turn violent until the US denied widespread requests for immediate, free elections and shut down his newspaper, it may still be possible to reach some sort of settlement with him before going after him where he still has some sort of legitimate local power. However, if a settlement can not be reached, the US cannot allow the sectarian violence to continue, and must take al-Sadr on within months, before homogenous districts are created as a result of the violence.
Al-Sadr denies having any role in the vicious sectarian attacks on civilians, claiming they are being instigated by rogue Mehdi Army elements. One such element was said to be Abu Deraa, known as the "Shiite Zarqawi." However, this month Deraa has denied that he has broken from Al-Sadr and claimed he is still acting as a part of the Mehdi Army.5
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The Associated Press reported that the Iraqi government has released statistics about violent deaths in 2006. The report noted that there were 16,273 violent deaths for Iraqi civilians (14,298), police (1,348) and soldiers (627). That is actually a larger number than the Associated Press count of 2,500 that only relied upon news reports, so this must include violent deaths not previously released to the media.
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Iran's nuclear program continues and already we're seeing the domino theory becoming a realization: The Gulf Cooperation Council, consisting of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has announced they are looking into joint civilian nuclear programs.
Asia
The situation in Afghanistan continues to be challenging, to say the least. Credible military sources in Afghanistan note that the failure of reconstruction efforts, the fact that the Taliban is returning, utilizing Pakistani territory, that NATO forces are unwilling to engage the enemy, and the enemy's increasing freedom of movement, is causing the situation to further deteriorate.
The new evidence of Iranian activity in Iraq overshadowed the New York Times report on Iranian activity in Afghanistan. The Iranians have distributed over $200 million in Kabul, and western Afghanistan, while utilizing radio stations to broadcast anti-American propaganda. Moderate Shiites are angered by the claim that Iran is funding conservative religious schools to cultivate more radical Shiites, and is also funding regional warlords who worked with them in the past.
The paper also reported that operatives are being recruited, who could potentially attack US targets. Aggressive spying operations are also evident. These operations are apparently very successful, as evidenced by the British charging the interpreter for NATO's commanding general in the country of working for Iran.6
Latin America
In Venezuela, Hugo Chavez has announced that he would not renew the license for the RCTV station, one of the oldest stations in the country, and a known opponent of Chavez's regime. Despite the numerous emails we've receive from extreme leftists praising Chavez for his social programs, they cannot deny that he is debilitating freedom of speech.
Russia
The cinematic-style assassination mystery, that began with Litvinenko, continues. While Litvinenko's death has received the most attention recently, the media should report more on the poisoning of Mario Scaramello, an expert on Soviet espionage in Italy, who was sued by Italy's Prime Minister, Romano Prodi. Scaramello was poisoned with the same substance as Litvinenko.
Why was Scaramello targeted? It could be that he was simply a friend of Litvinenko's. Perhaps it has to do with his work, in 2003, as a consultant to a parliamentary inquiry investigating KGB operations in Italy. When asked about Prodi, Scaramello stated that there was no evidence Prodi worked as a KGB agent, but Scaramello did note that Prodi had "friendly relations" with the KGB.7
1 Associated Press, December 10, 2006.
2 Iran Press News, December 20, 2006.
3 New York Times, December 25, 2006.
4 Los Angeles Times, December 13, 2006.
5 AAP, December 20, 2006 (Australia's Fairfax newspaper).