1. Letters labeled top-secret were released that reveal orders from the Iraqi Defense Ministry to conceal weapons and devices in hidden shelters for later use. Some analysts have viewed this operation described in the documents as WMD-related, but most likely it was merely the beginning of the activation of plans to foment an insurgency.

2. In 2000, an Iraqi intelligence officer reported to his government that he had a “trusted source” in the Associated Press that gave the regime important information as UNMOVIC was being established.


Middle East

Considerable political skirmishing has occurred with regard to Iraq this month. A new US Senate Intelligence Committee report dismissed allegations of cooperation between Iraq and Al-Qaeda. The Administration has been very ineffective in countering this aspect of the report. The report not only addresses a significant quantity of documents, defector testimony, and other evidence demonstrating such ties, but it is also politically motivated.

If you read the “Minority Views” portion of the report, you notice that the Republican politicians on the committee dismiss the report and explain how the Democrats, and two Republicans who are critical of the war, used their majority status on the committee to politicize the intelligence.

Throughout the report, for example, the testimony of high-level Iraqis including Saddam Hussein, who have no incentive to admit their involvement in terrorist activity, is taken as fact. The deputy prime minister of Iraq responded to the report by saying he knew that Iraq was working with Al-Qaeda. He even gave an example where he says Ansar al-Islam, an Al-Qaeda affiliate, tried to kill him in 2001. The plot, he said, was partly funded and directed by Iraq.

The politically-motivated leaking of portions of the NIE was another major issue. Since they still stubbornly insist that Iraq did not sponsor terrorism, the anti-war contingent claimed the report indicated that the war in Iraq has created more terrorists than it has eliminated. However, this is not entirely true.

The NIE does state that the war in Iraq has become a recruiting device for terrorists, and indicates it is responsible for higher levels of anti-Americanism. No one can contest that the war in Iraq was opposed by the majority in the Muslim world. However, another key reason for continued ideological support for the insurgency is the lack of democracy and human rights in the region.

Not only does the NIE prove that leaving Iraq now would be a disaster, in point of fact, the report amply supports the contention that Saddam Hussein and his regime had to be removed from power.

If the US’s primary means with which to defeat radical Islamic ideology is to advance democracy in the region, then how else can such a task be accomplished without removing dictatorial regimes that won’t embrace freedom, even if it results in a temporary spike in anger against US policy?

The argument against action in Iraq therefore is a call for a return to the status quo—the status quo that, according to the NIE, has resulted in the growth of terrorism and radical Islam.

Abu Ayyub al-Masri, the current head of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, also offered a rebuttal to those claiming that involvement in Iraq today is useless because it creates more terrorists than it eliminates. In late September, he issued an audio tape which stated that over 4,000 foreign fighters had been killed in Iraq. There is no way to know how many terrorists the US “created” by commencing Operation Iraqi Freedom, but the fact that the head of Al-Qaeda in Iraq admits 4,000 terrorists have been killed should be a talking point for every politician that supported the war.

Another significant issue was a poll released by the University of Maryland that claims that 60% of the Iraqis support attacks on American soldiers. The author of this analysis is not an expert on poling methodology, so he cannot dissect its credibility, however, it should be noted that this same polling group, which consists of Democrats who opposed the war, is the same group that previously released a poll alleging to prove that Fox News viewers have factually incorrect views about foreign policy. However, these “facts” were based on opinions and interpretation of evidence.

For example, one “fact” that the Fox News viewers purportedly believed “incorrectly” was that WMD had been found in Iraq, and that Hussein had been cooperating with bin Laden. As detailed herein, such a poling result cannot be considered “fact” because it depends on the viewers’ interpretation of what constitutes WMD. To be sure, WMD components and even weapons have been found, but stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons have not been discovered.

However, even if we assume that the poll is accurate, it is hardly “proof” that the Coalition effort in Iraq has been a complete failure and the Iraqis are unanimously opposed to the presence of Coalition forces. The poll indicates immense support for a US role in reconstruction, and the training of the Iraqi security forces. There is very high confidence in the Iraqi security forces and a low confidence in the US military. If we assume the poll is accurate, this may mean that the Iraqis do not want the US assuming the lead role in anti-insurgency operations, and view such activity as that of an occupier, but do favor US cooperation as the Iraqis take control of their own country.

The poll also indicated that 94% of Iraqis had an unfavorable view of Al-Qaeda, including 77% of Sunnis. Nouri al-Maliki and Ayatollah Sistani continue to garner tremendous support, and Syria and Iran suffer from poor opinions, except in the south, where Iran’s role is viewed positively by a very slight majority.
No poll has ever substantiated the notion that Iraqis want Saddam Hussein back in power, or favor an Islamic theocracy. Despite growing Iraqi anger and frustration with Coalition forces, as of right now, this mood can not be interpreted as staunch hostility to the ideals of democracy, or earnest support for civil war. Indeed, no poll has ever indicated that Iraqis desire a civil war. Quite the contrary, most are optimistic about Iraq remaining one unified state.

Sen. Sam Brownback, a likely Republican candidate for president in 2008, must be applauded for introducing the Iran Human Rights Act. The proposed legislation would establish a State Department envoy for human rights and democracy in Iran, reform American broadcasts into Iran, and provide additional support to groups seeking to regime change in Iran. This is the sort of action that must be taken right now in order to win in Iraq and win the War on Terrorism as a whole.


Asia

This month, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf released 2,500 Taliban and alleged Al-Qaeda fighters from prison. He also went on a book tour that also served as a public relations tour. In the United States, he aggressively tried to counter allegations that his government’s deal to, among other things, establish peace with Taliban-aligned elements and withdraw from Waziristan, was helping the terrorist.

It is also widely reported that Musharraf and Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan are not speaking to each other, as Afghanistan believes Pakistani territory is being used by the Taliban to resurge in southern Afghanistan, and each side blames the other for harboring Osama bin Laden.

At the same time Musharraf was attempting to curry favor in the West, domestically he was trying to avoid being the next victim of Pakistan-based anti-Americanism. He claimed in his book and in his interviews that his cooperation with the United States was not due to an ideological alliance, but because Richard Armitage had threatened Pakistan with attack. He claims he even “war gamed” against the U.S. and realized Pakistan would lose, so he had to “submit”. It is quite interesting to observe Musharraf attempting to pander to both sides.