Middle East
With elections in Iraq a month away, it is important that the Iraqis do something to counter Iranian influence. Luckily, the best weapon has arrived - Iranian immigrants. The overwhelming majority of Iranians highly disapprove of the Iranian mullahs, and this is influencing Shiite groups once more closely aligned with the Iranians (the most influential being the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq).

Observers worried that Iraqi politicians would play to Iran's interests and anti-Coalition sentiment, but the opposite has occurred. In fact, campaigning politicians, including the Iraqi defense minister and President Yawar, are campaigning on a platform aimed at countering Iranian influence. The Iraqi people are speaking with one voice: "We will have tyranny no more!"

Once the Iraqi president warned Iran against trying to influence the elections , a string of other politicians followed. It was shockingly similar to the battle between Bush and Kerry over who was tougher on the War on Terror - both sides are taking proactive roles. And this has opened up the opportunity for the Iraqi government to launch a public relations campaign against Iran, which included the defense ministry releasing a videotape of 50 suicide vehicles entering via Iran, 14 of which were carrying explosives.

The United States is reportedly planning a new round of sanctions on Syria (which are long overdue) and there are rumors of plans for cross-border raids and military actions short of official hostilities.

Finally, US military intelligence has concluded that Ba'athist remnants, calling themselves the "New Regional Command," are operating from Damascus, are directing the insurgents, and are providing funding through hidden sources in Europe and Saudi Arabia. The conclusion was reached as a result of intelligence acquired in Fallujah, including a global positioning signal receiver, found in a bomb factory that revealed clandestine waypoints in western Syria.

The Iraqis also presented Damascus with evidence this month, including photos of Syrian officials meeting with insurgents. Tribes in the west that are facilitating the movements of fighters and materials, and running the black market, are allied with Syrian officials, as photos show meetings between the two.
To help prosecute the war in Iraq, Western analysts need to observe Israel more intently. The Israelis have experienced tremendous success over the past year. A senior Israeli official summed up their successes, in 2004, by noting that Palestinian organizations sent 343 suicide bombers to attack Israelis, significantly less than in 2003. Only 54 Israelis were killed this year, one-third of the 2003 count.

The Israelis were, as well, much more effective this year in counter-insurgency operations. They killed 119 terrorists in the West Bank, and 148 "civilians." In subsequent investigations, only 29 of the "civilians" were found to be noncombatants. The situation in the West Bank has changed dramatically, with Hezbollah now controlling the deadliest and most active cells, estimated to number around 40.
Iran took headlines this month as more evidence emerged of their nuclear weapons program. First, the Iranians announced the capture of CIA and Mossad spy rings embedded in their nuclear program. In doing so, they as much as admitted there are secret Iranian nuclear sites undeclared to the IAEA. There are two schools of thought about this incident:

1. This is rhetoric, aimed at counterbalancing the fact that Iranian spies have been caught conducting surveillance of Israeli targets in the United States, and that Iran continues to its sponsorship of terrorism
2. This was pure propaganda.
3. This was the result of a successful attempt by the Israelis and possibly the Americans to force the Iranians into admitting there were secret nuclear sites of interest to the West.
4. This was rhetoric intended to alarm the Israelis and Americans into thinking Western intelligence operations against Iran have been compromised. The statements by Iran came only weeks after Western intelligence reportedly sabotaged shipments of nuclear weapons-related equipment (including "laser guns" used to enrich uranium).
   

In perhaps the most stunning evidence, to date, that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapon and enriched uranium, despite EU agreements, it was discovered that they had purchased massive amounts of beryllium, a metal used to facilitate chain reactions in nuclear devices. However, while this substance is sometimes purchased for legitimate civilian uses, there is no declared civilian need that can possibly justify such a large purchase.

Despite this fact, the head of the IAEA, El-Baradei, is refusing to report the suspicious activity. Likely emboldened by the anti-American El-Baradei, Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, the chairman of the Iranian Expediency Council has announced enrichment of uranium will resume within six months.

El-Baradei did admit though, that Iran is refusing to allow inspections at two sites, one at the Parchin military complex southeast of Tehran, and in Lavizan, northeast of Tehran. Increased evidence has been acquired that Iran is working on a missile reentry vehicle that could accommodate a small nuclear warhead, launched by its Shahab ballistic missiles.

Both the Iranians and the United States have been holding exercises to simulate a war between the two. From studying these exercises, and their militaries in general, Anthony Cordesman, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, has concluded that Iran remains "no match" for the USA. He concluded that Iran was unable to invade surrounding countries militarily, and has still not recovered from its brutal 1980s war with Iraq. The problems Cordesman identified were, as follows:

1. Funding: Iran spends $3 billion yearly on defense, less than one-sixth of the Saudis.
2. Inability to modernize their command structure.
3. Lack of advanced technology.
4. Inability to upgrade surface ships.
5. Purchased surface-to-air missiles are often over 25 years old in their design and technology.
6. Inability to obtain sensors, and command and communications systems, adequate for a war with the United States.

In other developments, the Israeli military has determined that Egypt is seeking to weaken Israel via the Palestinian insurgency. It is well known that Egypt is allowing the smuggling of weapons and terrorists from the Sinai Peninsula into the Gaza Strip. We at WorldThreats.com also believe that the Egyptian media and education system is radicalizing the Islamic world and is, via the aforementioned activities, attempting to export its internal problems.

Russia, Ex-USSR
Russia's stance became increasingly anti-American this month. While the media covered the press conference where Putin demanded an explanation for American attempts to "isolate" Russia, the media did not cover several other important developments. The Russian oil powerhouse, LuKOil may, according to Putin, team up with Chinese state-owned companies in what some observers called "an oil alliance".
Russia also announced it would be adding non-nuclear cruise missiles to strategic bombers, allowing Russian aircraft the capability to strike thousands of miles away. This greatly enhances Russia's nuclear posture, as cruise missiles can quickly have nuclear warheads fitted to them despite their "non-nuclear" status. This military enhancement came only weeks after Russia announced work on a new nuclear weapon which no other nation possessed - most likely an ICBM that can defeat ABM systems.

Latin America
Hugo Chavez of Venezuela has seized all broadcast media in his country. His transformation of Venezuela into a socialist country - part of an anti-American bloc - is complete. Chavez also announced that he is trying to modernize their armed forces to "stop the threat of aggression" (hinting at the USA) by closer military relations with Russia.

It is known that, in 2004, arms sales from Russia to Venezuela doubled, and now Chavez is speaking of purchasing 100,000 machine guns and advanced anti-tank and anti-aircraft equipment.

The media did not cover the following event and this startled some observers. Chavez visited Libya, in the last week of November, to receive $250,000 and "Qaddafi's International Award for Human Rights". During his speech, Chavez stated "I feel like I belong to this land that has given birth to heroes like Abdul Nasser, Yasser Arafat, Qaddafi and Bin Bella, who are an extension of the Bolivarian Revolution in Latin America." This confirms our suspicions that all of these anti-American characters are in league, and have a common ideology, albeit, with cultural variations.

Part of Chavez' diplomatic offensive was to claim (and not outrageously) that Spain and the USA had some sort of role in the coup plots against him. At this time, Spain's new Socialist leader Moratinos confirmed Chavez' claims, as did leaders in Chile and Mexico. They were in agreement, revealing that the US fueled a resolution in the Organization of American States that would acknowledge Pedro Carmona (the coup leader) as the president of Venezuela after the coup.

Meanwhile, the leaders of Cuba and Venezuela signed an agreement after high-level officials met at Karl Marx Theater. They showed "the highest expression of unity", and announced they'd begin the Bolivarian Agreement for the Americas, an alternative to NAFTA.

Moving north, there is increased hyperbole surrounding the presidential ambitions of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the popular mayor of Mexico City. He is part of the so-called "center-left" Democratic Revolutionary Party, and he is currently leading in all polls regarding the 2006 election. He is a known Marxist, eager to ally with the more anti-American nations of the Western Hemisphere.

Asia
In a recent interview, Deputy Secretary of State Armitage delivered a timed diplomatic move. Armitage greatly angered China watchers and "hawks" by stating that the United States was not required, by treaty, to defend Taiwan from China, once an invasion began, but was only obliged to sell defense systems, and attempt to deter China from an invasion. Armitage's statements surely encouraged China greatly. Most analysts agree Armitage's statement was made in order to limit the actions of the pro-independence politicians in Taiwan.

In light of the recent election debacle in the Ukraine, analysts of the former USSR are observing that past and present elections in the area may not have been as "fair" as once believed. And "electioneering" operations are becoming increasingly bold. On December 27, the Uzbek parliamentary elections were held and the opposition parties were banned from running candidates. The Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe noted there were "insufficient conditions" for a valid democratic vote.

Europe
The fact that Europe is reaching out to China, in an effort to balance American power, is worthy of consideration. Europe has access to industrial and military technology that would allow China to more quickly become a super-power, and rival the US. Germany is leading the way, with France, in an attempt to terminate the European Union's ban on selling arms to China.

Fortunately for the US, other European countries are opposing the move, citing human rights violations in China, as an ongoing problem That's the problem they have stated publicly however, it is more likely these countries see the growth of Chinese power as far more threatening than the current power wielded by US.

The situation in the Ukraine got the most attention in Europe. Austrian doctors confirmed that reformist candidate Yushchenko was the victim of poisoning, which was almost certainly an assassination plot. Pro-Russian candidate Yanukovych responded by working with a French PR firm to battle accusations of being involved in the assassination plot and, in some cases, that there even was a conspiracy. By now, the debate is almost over. Yushchenko had dioxin in him at almost 1000 times the normal level, and only one other person is on record as having higher levels.

The result of the re-vote was a substantial victory by Yuschenko, which Yanukovych said he would challenge in the Ukrainian Supreme Court. Prior to the elections, Yushchenko mentioned that his group had received information indicating a wide range of plans to disrupt any victory he might enjoy, including the movement of "brigades" into Kiev.

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Ryan Mauro is a geo-political analyst whose web site WorldThreats.com is a recognized top flight source for analysis on the world and nation.  Ryan's keen insight and independent analysis makes him a valuable guest writer and we are proud to offer his work on MILNET.