Al-Qaeda Threats
    In general, intelligence regarding Al-Qaeda efforts to strike American interests seems to indicate they’re focusing on the Gulf region, and laying low in North America.  Since WorldThreats.com chronicles reports of terrorist activity on this site, as well as on the Northeast Intelligence Network’s website (HomelandSecurityUS.com), there are a few notable observations.

    Interpol claims the worldwide terrorist threat has not eased since the 2001 US invasion of Afghanistan (we’d personally debate that).  FBI Director Mueller mentioned he’s “very concerned” about the lack of data on Al-Qaeda sleeper cells inside America, and noted that it is clear terrorists are targeting Russian nuclear weapons sites.  Additionally, Admiral James M. Coy has publicly stated that there is intelligence “strongly suggesting” Al-Qaeda has at least considered utilizing the Mexican border for ground access to the USA.

    We found it particularly interesting that Osama bin Laden is attempting to urge Abu Musab al-Zarqawi to strike the United States.  This very likely means that Zarqawi is now an integral component of Al-Qaeda, but at the same time, is an indicator that bin Laden realizes he doesn’t have the operational capabilities of Zarqawi.  While bin Laden is the ideological “backbone” of the insurgency, Zarqawi appears to be the new operational head for the Gulf region.  However, WorldThreats.com believes that, at this moment, Zarqawi’s reach extends only into Western Europe.  He has yet to solidify command over cells that extend into North or South America, or over the entire network in Europe, although he’s working on it.  However, we must remember that the majority of the preparations for 9-11 occurred in Western Europe.

Peace Process
    WorldThreats.com is pleasantly surprised by Mahmoud Abbas’ attitude towards the United States and Israel.  Abbas’ past is a sketchy at best.  He has long been one of Arafat’s deputies, and committed to the corrupt Palestinian Authority for just as long.  He received his doctorate, after writing a thesis denying the scope of the Holocaust, stating, “only a few hundred thousand Jews” were killed. He’s also made statements recently, indicating that he is of the belief that the Palestinians own all of today’s Israel.  And don’t forget, Arafat once appointed him as prime minister before Abbas resigned, out of frustration with having no input in decision-making.

    However, it appears Abbas is more concerned about his legacy than his ideology, and wants to be the man to make progress towards peace with Israel. The problem is the terrorist groups sponsored by Syria, Iran and Saudi Arabia, and tolerated by Egypt.  These groups have substantial power among the Palestinians.  Hamas succeeded very well in local elections because they sponsor charities and hospitals, whereas the Palestinian Authority has failed in that arena.

    Peace in the Middle East would be a deathblow to Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and Hamas. It is not only contrary to their destructive ideology, indeed, they’re overall financial wealth, power and prestige depends upon creating chaos. Under no circumstances will they allow the peace process to succeed. And their state sponsors, the Saudis, Syrians, and Iranians, are regimes that are founded upon the concept of state-sponsored terrorism.  Without persistent conflict and violence in the Middle East, they would all become obsolete. This is precisely why Hezbollah has sent death threats to Abbas, and is urging Hamas and others to continue the attacks.

Middle East
    Dramatic developments are occurring in Lebanon.  A car bomb recently killed the former prime minister of Lebanon, Rafik al-Hariri, who resigned last fall to protest Syria’s interference in Lebanese affairs. The Lebanese opposition and, reportedly, the United States, hoped to use Hariri to reform the Lebanese government after their spring elections.

    Since the bombing, there has been an impressive popular uprising. The country appears on the brink of civil war, as law enforcement appears powerless to control the people who continually defy the ban on large gatherings during selected days. The Syrian puppet government in Lebanon has resigned, which is a hopeful sign, but we must remember that, given their loyalties, these recent developments are likely a key component of Syrian strategy.

    To ease the pressure some, President Assad handed over Saddam Hussein’s brother-in-law, a key player in the insurgency. At the same time, there were attacks in Israel by Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah, and devastating attacks in Iraq. It is likely Syria is emphasizing to the West that they can create trouble if need be, and be relatively cooperative if treated well. Obviously, Syria’s deceptions continue.

    It is unlikely Syria will relinquish control over Lebanon. The theft of Lebanon is an extremely critical component of the Assad Regime’s stability. Instead, it is likely Syrian intelligence, embedded in Lebanon, will attempt to control Lebanon, or at least create enough chaos, with Hezbollah, to continue the plight of Lebanon, and maintain it as a terrorist haven.

    Perhaps the most over-looked information is the proclamation by a leading member of Hezbollah (Hujjat al-Islam Baqer Kharrazi) that Iran has a nuclear weapons program. He flatly stated, “We are able to produce atomic bombs and we will do that. We shouldn’t be afraid of anyone.”  The situation in Iran is heating up as Israeli intelligence has concluded that the regime will have the technical knowledge required to produce nuclear weapons within six months. The Iranians will complete final tests and experiments required to enrich uranium by the end of 2005.

    Due to rising tensions, Iran’s government has publicly announced preparations for an attack by the United States. The Iranians are reportedly planning for extended guerilla warfare, and mobilizing civilian militia—the supposedly 7-million strong “Basiji” militia used in human-wave assaults during their war with Saddam.

    Now is the time for the Americans to support the freedom fighters in Iran. Senator Santorum has introduced the Iran Freedom and Support Act, authorizing $10 million for such an effort, and WorldThreats.com supports it. We should also be publicly calling for a nationwide referendum in Iran. If a referendum was conducted fairly, the mullahs would be removed—if unfairly, anger towards the regime would be unbearable for the mullahs. With reforms occurring all over the world, particularly in Lebanon, the Iranian people’s popular strength  and influence is growing at a steady pace.

    This summer is sure to be an interesting one in Iran, and it may result in the removal of the regime. A secret report by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps sent to Supreme Leader Khamenei warns that if a rebellion or demonstrations grows over a period of six hours in Tehran, the security forces will lose all control.

    WorldThreats.com believes the most significant and overlooked piece of information this month is the fact that Iraqi television aired a taped confession of a Syrian intelligence lieutenant revealing his role in the Iraqi insurgency. The 30-year-old Anas Ahmed al-Essa, from Halab, admitted he received his instructions from Syrian intelligence. Also in the video, ten Iraqis stated that they were recruited by the Syrians to conduct attacks.

    One of al-Essa’s aides, Shehab al-Shabaqwi claimed that the group he belonged to used animals on which to practice beheadings, and in order to be promoted to a group leader, the operative had to conduct at least 10 beheadings. He also explained that Syria provided weapons, explosives, equipment and $1,500 per month to each operative in his group.

    Al-Sabaqwi further detailed that the Syrians recruited him in an Iraqi mosque, in 2001, and offered to pay for recruits, including himself, to travel to Islamabad, Pakistan, to learn how to construct car bombs and kidnap people. He claimed that he spent 11 months in Islamabad and then, in fall of 2003, traveled to Syria for another month of training, and was then sent into Iraq.

    Al-Essa claimed that he infiltrated Iraq, under Syrian orders, in 2001, to begin preparing for the US-led invasion. An Iraqi officer stated that to his knowledge, all insurgent groups are merely covers for Syrian intelligence, and identified several well-known groups inside Iraq as Syrian fronts, including a group that kidnapped and beheaded foreigners. Iraqi TV later aired another series of interviews with Sudanese and Egyptians who stated that they were trained in Syria before going to Iraq to fight.

    By now it is clear the Iraqis greatly desire freedom and democracy, and many are willing to fight for it. Iraqi villagers killed five insurgents who attacked them during the election at al-Mudhiyah, south of Baghdad. They burned their cars and injured several other insurgents as well.

    The strains of freedom are sweeping the Middle East like a scorching desert wind…

• Lebanon’s government has been forced to resign.
• Syria may soon withdraw from Lebanon.
• Elections were held in the Palestinian areas.
• Mahmoud Abbas plans to reform the Palestinian government.
• Very successful elections were held in Iraq.
• Plans for local elections and reforms have begun in Saudi Arabia.
• Egyptian President Mubarak plans to amend the constitution to allow for multi-candidate elections in September. For the first time since 1981, Mubarak will have a challenger. 
• Qatar is open about the transition to democracy.
• The Iranian people are ready to force change.

Asia
    February was a miserable month for American-Russian relations. The U.S. criticized Putin’s ongoing restrictions on the free press and overall democratic and capitalistic procedures in Russia. Putin responded back harshly, and in doing so provided insight into his KGB-trained mind, noting that Russia didn’t respond when Bush “fired” Dan Rather of CBS. This incident is interesting in that it amply demonstrates that Putin clearly doesn’t understand how the Western world works.

    Tensions also flared when Russia ruled out ceasing its delivery of nuclear fuel to Iran. Senator John McCain is so incensed over this that he stated that Russia should be barred from the next G8 meeting. Russia also moved to undermine American power and strategy by closing important arms deals with the Syrians, including the sale of SA-18 anti-aircraft missiles, which dramatically raises the stakes for Israel and America.  This weapon is every terrorist and insurgent’s dream. It is likely that if, back in November 2003, Al-Qaeda had used an SA-18 rather than SA-7 to attack the Israeli airliner flying in Kenya, the hundreds of people aboard would not be alive today.

    Substantial developments in the Russian-Chinese alliance occurred, as well, this past month. The Russian Security Council and the Chinese Politburo’s Military Commission are developing a new joint forum, allowing for coordination and instant communication in times of crisis, and are also planning joint naval exercises—perhaps in preparation for a Chinese-Taiwanese conflict? Russia and China are also moving to include Brazil, Venezuela and South Africa in their alliances, while assisting Iran and Syria. Analysts believe that the Russians are hoping that the sale, by the US, of F-16s to Pakistan, will drive India into their camp.

North Korea
    Over to North Korea, the regime has admitted possessing nuclear weapons. While it is definitely true they have all the materials necessary, we are still unsure if weapons have actually been assembled.  Ultimately, that is of little consequence.  DIA analysts claim that North Korea has between 12 and 15 nuclear weapons, the CIA notes 2 or 3, and the Department of Energy believes the number is somewhere between 3 and 12. 

WorldThreats.com has long maintained that North Korea will probably not sell nuclear weapons to Al-Qaeda, and that a lot of the recent nuclear chatter is merely desperate grasping, on the part of North Korea, for prestige, attention, and money.  We have also long contended, as does Dr. Scott Wheeler of ToThePointNews.com, that the longer North Korea is ignored, the deeper the hole into which they will dig themselves. As Dr. Wheeler so eloquently states, we should force the North Koreans to “prove it”, by ignoring them until they test a nuclear weapon, which would also serve to further isolate them.

    Should the North Korean nuclear threat grow intolerable, such as intelligence indicating the North Koreans are working with terrorists, or they begin conducting tests, proving they have assembled weapons, the US does have many options. Diplomacy, of course, is the first line of action, but interception of illegal shipments would put effective pressure on the regime. If worse comes to worse, a blockade would be very successful, although this isn’t an option the US should be quick to employ. At any point, during the process of considering these measures, the US could compensate the North Koreans financially for verifiable disarmament of their WMD programs.

    We at WorldThreats.com maintain that the best way to reduce or eliminate North Korea’s WMD programs is by taking significant measures against Syria and Iran. A large portion of the income that the North Koreans use for their weapons programs is derived from weapons sales to Iran and Syria. With Libya out of the weapons business, the removal of these two customers will bring great progress on the Korean Peninsula.

Europe
    The Ukrainian situation remains remarkably calm. It is quite surprising that the new Ukrainian government has already launching a general inquiry into the previous government’s illegal weapons sales to rogue states. The former administration is suspected of having sold up to 20 KL-55 missiles to countries, including China and Iran. Iran received six such missiles in 2000. The missiles have a range of 1,800 miles, and are capable of carrying 200-kiloton nuclear warheads, at altitudes too low for radar to detect. The former Ukrainian government reportedly used a Bosnian arms dealer as an intermediary.  If true, this marks a significant increase in the threat posed by Iran and arms dealers in the former USSR.

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Sources:

1. Washington Times, February 17, 2005.
2. New York Times, February 17, 2005.
3. Telegraph, February 14, 2005.
4. IranMania.com, February 14, 2005.
5. MyWay, February 16, 2005.
6. Seattle Times, February 22, 2005.
7. IranFocus, February 24, 2005.
8. New York Times, February 23, 2005.
9. ABC News Online, February 4, 2005.
10. Associated Press, February 26, 2005.
11. Newsmax.com, February 16, 2005.
12. IndiaDaily.com, February 16, 2005.
13. Newsday.com, February 15, 2005.
14. Los Angeles Times, February 22, 2005

Ryan Mauro is a geo-political analyst whose web site WorldThreats.com is a recognized top flight source for analysis on the world and nation.  Ryan's keen insight and independent analysis makes him a valuable guest writer and we are proud to offer his work on MILNET.