I’ve long maintained that 2005-2006 is one of the most critical time periods in the foreseeable future. This is the time period when Iraqi democracy will be shaped, Iran will likely posses a nuclear weapon, and the trends of radical Islamism will be decided. It is also the time frame when an effective US foreign policy toward China must begin to be wisely formulated, and firmly implemented. How anyone could want to be president during this time perplexes me.
 

            President Bush’s State of the Union address and Condoleezza Rice’s recent statements have made it clear where the USA will push for reforms and changes. In Saudi Arabia and Jordan, as Bush stated, the US hopes democratic reforms will begin. Bush singled out Iran and Syria as the main threats to freedom, and he will likely focus on regime change there, as well.

            Rice, while being castigated by Congress, named the “outposts of tyranny” she would focus on. She named Cuba, Myanmar, Iran, Belarus, North Korea and Zimbabwe. She left out Syria, but was very vocal in her criticism of their regime. That may indicate that the US will push for internal reform or policy changes there, but not regime change—yet. [1]

Middle East

            The Iraqi elections, despite all the concerns and extreme security measures, were a tremendous success. The Kurds voted in massive numbers and will likely be over-represented in the 275-member National Assembly. The Shiites voted in great numbers as well and it is likely the United Iraqi Alliance, endorsed by Grand Ayatollah Al-Sistani, will control the assembly. This greatly limits the ambitions of extremists like Moqtada al-Sadr, who seek an Islamic state, and is a significant setback for the Iranians, who will see their influence over the Shia movement evaporate. The Sunnis initially held back from voting but made a last-minute surge when terrorist attacks did not occur.

            My greatest concern wasn’t that the Sunnis would feel powerless, because that is naturally what happens to every losing party or group in a democracy. This is a win-win situation for the Iraqis. If the Sunnis participate, they will see that they can gain more through participation than with boycotts. When they realize they’re underrepresented, or if they don’t participate, the Sunnis will lose power, and come the next election, they won’t make such a mistake twice. And, in either scenario, support for the insurgency’s violent ways will decline.

            Syria and Iran have the most to lose from this election, which is why I’m not surprised at their efforts to torpedo the elections. One key US ally, Jordan’s King Abdullah II, said the elections would be a disaster—and few, if any analysts have offered explanations for his comments. Jordan is Sunni, so naturally Jordan is wary of the growth of Shiite power on its border. Jordan is also not a democracy, so that monarchy is definitely concerned about this fine young addiction known as democracy and liberty. Already, freedom is making inroads into Jordan, with King Abdullah’s announcement that there will soon be elected councils for local administration. [2]

            In the two weeks before the election, an agent of Iran’s Al-Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guard was captured in Iraq. He had $150,000 on hand, and was meeting with Iraqi insurgents in the eastern Diyala province in central Iraq. He is believed to not only have funded, but also planned attacks on Coalition troops. [3] Iran attempted to manipulate the democratic process by inserting “fake families” (Iranian operatives posing as families going to vote) [4] into Iraq but there is no evidence that this had any significant effect.

            The leader of the Jaish Muhammed group, who was captured in Fallujah in November, admitted on videotape that his terrorists, who conducted several beheadings, relied upon Syrian and Iranian support. The Iraqi Defense Ministry released the videotape, as Prime Minister Allawi simultaneously campaigned on an anti-Iranian platform. According to the terrorist, two former Iraqi military-intelligence officers went to Iran, in April and May, to meet with Iranian intelligence officials, along with Ayatollah Khameini. He also revealed that Iran supplied his group with money, weapons and even car bombs, and that, just before the war began, Saddam Hussein sent him to Syria to discuss supplying the insurgency with a Syrian intelligence officer. [5]

            According to Iranian sources, in December, Jordan’s King Abdullah II was shown a photo of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi meeting with senior commanders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. [6] WorldThreats.com has no corroboration or confirmation available.

            The Iranian opposition obtained a document written by Iraqi insurgents reporting back to the Revolutionary Guards Brigadier-General Obeydavi, a senior leader of the elite Al-Quds Force. The note read as follows:

“We have presently reduced the number of attacks in southern Iraq, but operations still continue in Baghdad and in Ramadi, Falluja, Salahoddin, and Diyala. Consequent to the objectives defined, there is stability in southern Iraq, but there are relentless operations in the other provinces mentioned. The number of personnel involved in each operation differs according to the requirements and the importance of the target. We will inform you of any operation if more than 50 people are required to take part. Attacks are being conducted on the occupation forces, forces of the former regime and on any other force which is deemed necessary.” [7]

            Iran continues to move full-speed ahead in its nuclear weapons program, and Russia is playing a key role. Russia has begun the first phase of training the final 100 engineers to operate Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor (also Russian-manufactured). So far, 600 such engineers have been trained by Russia. The final step, seen by Israel as the “critical point” Iran must not reach, is the delivery of nuclear fuel for the reactor. This is expected to happen in the third quarter of 2005. [8]

            Iran now has the ability to produce zirconium, which is used in the cladding of uranium rods to prevent evaporation of fissionable products. [9] Iran, according to the National Council of Resistance, has recently conducted successful experiments on a crucial triggering tool required for the implementation of viable nuclear weapons. The Iranians now possess enough beryllium to produce nuclear weapons, and they’re close to producing their own neutron initiators. [10]

            Confrontation with Iran looms ever nearer. Seymour Hersh, a very liberal reporter, reported in mid-January, that US Special Forces had been conducting secret reconnaissance missions on Iranian nuclear sites since last summer, and have identified at least three-dozen sites.

Special Forces are reportedly working with Pakistani scientists, who assisted the Iranian nuclear program. [11] WorldThreats.com’s sources cast doubt on Hersh’s accounts of meetings inside the Pentagon—as reported in the original article—but would not comment on the purported Special Forces operations.

            Fortunately, the liberal movement in Iran is growing stronger by the day. The Student Movement Coordination Committee for Democracy, in Iran, reacted to President Bush’s speech, on January 27, by stating that Bush’s encouragement alone increases the level of civil disobedience, strikes and demonstrations in Iran. [12] If a speech with such average coverage produces that level of reaction in Iran, it will be interesting to observe the effect of the State of the Union address, wherein Bush spoke directly to the Iranian people.

            Syria is preparing for a joint Iraqi-American attack, of a limited nature, in the late spring of this year, according to some reporting. Syria’s recent courting of Russia for advanced arms purchases can be viewed in this context. Among the weapons being discussed are S-400 anti-aircraft missiles, strikingly capable of downing US cruise missiles and aircraft, anti-tank weapons, T-90 tanks, artillery upgrades and ballistic missiles.

The fact that Russia is even discussing an advanced weapons transaction with Syria, which already owes Russia an $11 billion debt, clearly demonstrates that Russia maintains a virulent anti-American agenda. In fact, Russia has even agreed to write off 73% of Syria’s debt! [13] Some of the weapons also may allow Syria to decipher Israeli technological secrets passed to the Russians. [14]

            Iran and the Saudis have reportedly given the Syrians $2 billion to secure the purchase of the Russian weapons, including SA-18 anti-aircraft missiles. While such weaponry won’t be able to turn the tide of a potential military conflict, it may be serious enough to capitalize on American hypersensitivity to casualties and cost.

            Syria is becoming a major front in the War on Terror, especially with its nuclear program and technologies—despite being many years removed from any credible ability to create an actual weapon. The Reform Party of Syria claims that Syria is relying on the assistance of Iran, China, Russia, the nuclear black market, including Abdul Qadeer Khan’s network, and the help of at least a dozen mid-level Iraqi nuclear scientists, to further its nuclear program. According to the dissident group, Syria is close to creating a full-fledged nuclear fuel cycle, due to the arrival of enriched uranium and nuclear components from the Iraqi program. WorldThreats.com doubts this claim. The centerpiece of the program is a so-called “agricultural research” site at Div Al-Hajar. To supplement the program, Syria is also buying rocket engines, Scud ballistic missiles and other missile components from North Korea. [15]

Europe

            In January, investigative reports were published regarding the poisoning of Ukranian President Viktor Yushchenko. The reports reveal that several attempts to poison Yushchenko were accomplished over a four-week period. Two poisons (dioxin and an endo-toxin) have been found in his body, and there is evidence that one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s closest staff members was involved.

            Yushchenko attended a party, on September 5, hosted by the SBU leader, and his deputy, who were said to be unaware of the plot, but the cook and the waiter attending the party are known to have signed documents given to Yushchenko, wherein they admitted being part of the poisoning plot.

Recently, Channel 5 TV was given intercepted phone calls between a man in Kiev, and an FSB officer in Moscow, discussing the plot. The name Gleb Pavlovsky, a close advisor to President Putin, was mentioned. [16] Marat Gelman was working with Pavlovsky, and the two enlisted the assistance of Viktor Medvedchuk, the head of the Social Democratic United Party, as an intermediary to the Russians, who specifically discussed assassination attempts, and poisoning Yushchenko.

            We also know that there was a bomb plot aimed at assassinating President Yushchenko. The plot failed, but did kill one person. Other bombs were found and defused at centers that were a part of Yuschenko’s youth-oriented effort. A car bomb was found near Yuschenko’s office as well, and the car had Russian license plates. The two operatives were arrested with false Russian and Ukranian passports, and the investigation revealed that their Russian contact was to pay them $50,000 for the assassination. They are believed to be FSB operatives. [17]

Latin America

            The only development here is the usual rhetoric from Fidel Castro, and Rice mentioning Cuba as an “outpost of tyranny.” In a minor development, Iran gave Cuba $20 million in Euro credits. [18]

Asia

            The South Korean paper Seoul Shinmon reported that the US is reviewing recently received intelligence that North Korea has purchased a complete nuclear weapon from either Pakistan, or a former Soviet state, to avoid critical testing that would allow detection by the West. [19] WorldThreats.com’s sources cast doubt on the report.

            Finally, information, of at least some minimal level of North Korean support for terrorists, has been released. It has been proven that the largest Islamist group in the Philippines, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, purchased weapons from the Koreans in 1999 and 2000. The MLF is an Al-Qaeda associate, and it is known that, despite the fact that North Korea is a communist state, Al-Qaeda urged the MLF to use its contacts in another associate, Jemmah Islamiya, to acquire the weapons. Among the weapons are 10,000 M16 rifles, grenades, light machine guns and RPGs. According to documents captured in November 2005, the MLF even began discussing the potential purchase of a Korean mini-submarine, in June 1999. [20]

            Earlier in this report, we discussed Russia’s anti-American agenda. In a report not extensively covered by the mainstream media, Russia’s intelligence services are alleged to be operating against the US, and its interests, just as though the Cold War had never ended. Russia is known to have at least one hundred clandestine agents in the US, under “official cover,” typically attached to embassies, masquerading as diplomats. [21] This does not even include covert operatives that may number in the thousands.

            It is quite evident now, that Russia had a role in undermining democracy in the Ukraine. And now it’s being rumored that Russia may also have had a hand in the death of Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Zhuania, who led the revolution that ousted Eduard Shevardnadze, a former communist. The prime minister was found dead in his friend’s apartment, purportedly from a heater’s accidental gas leak. [22]

            China continues to be a major proliferation concern. The United States placed financial penalties on eight powerful Chinese companies that are closely tied to the government, for aiding Iran’s ballistic missile program. [23] China continues to press its objectives toward becoming an international superpower, fully able to counter US influence.

            Of special concern to the Pentagon, is the fact that China is building military bases along sea-lanes to and from the Middle East; new naval bases, at the Gwadar port, in southwest Pakistan, for example. China is also improving its ties with Myanmar and Bangladesh, building a railway through Cambodia, and a canal in Thailand, to bypass the strategic Strait of Malacca. [24]