Elections in Iran
The most important events this
month
were related to Iran. Iran conducted presidential
elections that, from the start, were manipulated in favor of the
Islamic
radicals. The Guardian Council, made up
of radical, unelected clerics, approved the candidates. Voter
turnout was low, as a form of protest
against the government. According to my
sources, turnout was almost certainly below 30%. One cannot, of
course, expect an accurate
voter turnout given the fact that Iran is a closed society, and the
Iranian state-controlled press is not a reliable source.
Ali Akbar
Hashemi Rafsanjani, who was president from 1989 to 1997, took the early
lead. Most observers, including myself,
expected Rafsanjani to win. The Iranian
government made a significant effort to re-invent Rafsanjani as a
moderate,
despite evidence to the contrary, including his statements in support
of
Islamic nations acquiring nuclear weapons to destroy Israel,
and especially given the charade Iran has been implementing
to make
nuclear negotiations seem fruitful, especially to the Europeans, only
to
backtrack. This continued negotiations
charade has bought Iran
a lot of time. Some would even say
enough time to develop a nuclear arsenal, without fear of regime change.
However,
the mullahs appointed – not elected, because obvious mass fraud was
involved –
Mahmoud Ahmedinejad. A decidedly more
radical candidate, Ahmedinejad, most recently the mayor of Tehran, and began
his career by joining the
Office of Strengthening of Unity between Universities and Theological
Seminaries. The mullahs utilized the OSU
to suppress anti-government student activities, and bring the nation’s
schools
under the mullah’s control and theology.
Ahmedinejad
reportedly played a
role in the takeover of the US
embassy in 1979 and, when he joined the Revolutionary Guards, worked as
an
executioner, and would eventually become a senior officer.
As an officer of the Special Brigade
at Ramizan Garrison, Ahmedinejad orchestrated involvement in exporting
terrorism outside of Iran. From there, he became a governor, and then
mayor of Tehran
and, as a result of the fraudulent election, now president of the
Islamic
Republic.
It will be
interesting to gain further insights
into the reasons why Iran’s
radical leaders have decided to harden their policy and stance against
the
West, rather than maintain their nuclear negotiations charade.
Middle Eastern experts, including
Michael Ledeen, have observed that, for the mullahs, there has been an
unintended consequence as a result of the fraudulent election. There were relatively few anti-government
demonstrations due to the mullahs’ per-election preparations, but we’re
seeing
various conservative elements of the government turning on each other. Politicians in Iran, and sources deep
inside
conservative elements, are condemning the election and alleging fraud.
In one case, an official in the
Interior Ministry is now under arrest for revealing alleged
election
fraud to the press. He claims that he
personally observed Guardian Council agents interfering with voting
stations
(CNN, 6/25/05). Mehdi Karrobui, the third place candidate,
and Dr. Mostafa Moin, who came in fifth, also claimed the elections
were a fraud.
While the Interior Ministry’s
election reports frequently contradicted those of the Guardian Council,
the
Council has power over the Ministry, and the Interior Ministry was
forced to
modify their reports.
Readers interested in acquiring
more information regarding Iranian presidential election fraud are
urged to
review the Regime Change Iran
blog, at http://www.regimechangeiran.com.
Middle East
Saudi
intelligence has substantiated that Iran is harboring al-Qaeda
operatives. Last year, in the eastern part
of the country, Saudi intelligence agents captured Khaled bin Ouda bin
Mohammed
al-Harbi. In 2001, al-Harbi was
observed, in a videotaped meeting with Osama Bin Laden, apparently
discussing
the 9-11 plot. Intelligence sources
informed the AP that one of the masterminds of the Khobar Towers
bombing, Ahmad
Ibragim al-Mughassil, as well as a high-level al-Qaeda operative named
Abu
Omran, are currently in Iran (AP, 6/3/05).
MSNBC (6/24/05)
has also reported that Iran
is harboring al-Qaeda operatives.
There are two sites where al-Qaeda
operatives are reportedly residing: In the Namak Abrud region, near
Chalous, on
the Caspian Coast
(60 miles north of Tehran), and at
Lavizan,
which is northwest of Tehran,
and has a heavy military presence.
It is also being claimed that Iran
is harboring al-Qaeda’s “Management Council,” including two of Ayman
al-Zawahiri’s top aides: Saad and Hamza bin Laden, two of bin Laden’s
sons,
Seif al-Adel, a key operations mastermind, Shaik Said (chief financial
officer), Abu Hafs (personnel director) and Abu Dahak, al-Qaeda’s
ambassador to
Chechnya.
Iran’s
nuclear program proceeds, unabated. In
his new book, “Countdown to Crisis,” Kenneth Timmerman warns that Iran
could be a mere six months away from obtaining a nuclear weapon, as
compared to
other estimations ranging from 1-3 years.
The new hardened stance that Iran has taken regarding
the West,
mentioned above, could be an indication of the confidence the Iranians
may now
have regarding the progress of their nuclear program.
Of
even greater concern though,
Timmerman writes that, based on face-to-face interviews with defectors
and
sources inside Iran,
Osama
bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri are in Iran and that, in late
2004, both
met with top Iranian officials to discuss future terrorist attacks. The
fact
that Iran’s
new president has pledged to “expand the Islamic revolution into the
whole
world” makes this even more disturbing.
In a related matter, Iran
is reportedly negotiating with North Korea
regarding the construction of tunnels near nuclear and missile sites
(Telegraph, Con Coughlin, 6/12/05).
Syria
continues to meddle in the affairs of
neighboring Lebanon.
The Bush Administration reportedly has “credible evidence” of a Syrian
list of
Lebanese figures that have been targeted for assassination, in order to
create
internal strife (Washington
Post, 6/9/05). There is intelligence indicating that Syrian
intelligence re-entered Lebanon
in the first week of June. Since this
revelation, there have been numerous assassinations, including that of
a
popular anti-Syrian journalist.
According to Gulf News, the largest
English paper in the region, on June 17, the new Iraqi government
threatened
military retaliation for Iranian-sponsored terrorism.
General Nazim Mohammed, chief of Iraqi border
police in Montheria stated that Iranians were captured attempting to
sabotage
oil pipelines near Nuft Khaneh, under the orders of Iranian
intelligence
officers. The captives reportedly had links to other Iranians in
Baqubah.
Latin
America
The El
Univers, a Mexican paper, has reported on increased Venezuelan support
for
terrorism. On the Venezuelan border,
Colombian forces seized 1,000 Venezuelan military uniforms, reportedly
for use
by the FARC terrorist organization.
Venezuelan intelligence is also claimed be providing weapons,
specifically AK-47s, to the People’s Revolutionary Army of Mexico. Cuban embassy officials are involved in the
transfers; money reportedly makes its way to Venezuela,
via Havana. According to a report (Geostrategy-Direct.com,
6/7/05), Venezuela and Cuba
are also backing members of the Party of Democratic Revolution in Mexico.
Asia
As with much of the former Soviet
Union, it would appear that regime change may be inevitable in Azerbaijan. In early June, in Baku, 10,000 protestors demonstrated,
demanding that the government resign, and allow free parliamentary
elections in
November (AP, 6/5/05).
Two
Chinese defectors have recently provided insight into Chinese
espionage,
especially in Australia. Chen Yonglin, a diplomat, claims that China has 1,000 agents in Australia,
some of who are involved
in illegal activity, including the abduction of Chinese nationals. Yonglin also confirmed that Chinese-owned
companies, operating in the West, are working closely with the Chinese
military
complex, adding credence to the warnings by many observers that the
acquisition
of ports in the Panama Canal, the Bahamas, and elsewhere, are
all
part of a greater anti-American strategy.
Australia has
rebuffed Yonglin, quite possibly
due to the fact that China
has become such a critical trading partner; China is a major purchaser
of
Australian minerals (Newsmax.com, 6/8/05). China
is also planning on nearly doubling the percentage of nuclear energy it
produces, by 2020. (VOA News, 6/7/05).
The Pew Research
Center research project has
concluded
that the citizens of the United Kingdom,
Germany, Spain, Netherlands,
Russia, Turkey, Pakistan,
Lebanon, Jordan, and Indonesia
all have a more favorable view of China,
than the United
States. Of
the countries surveyed, only Poland
and India
still favored America,
and Canada
was split down the middle (AP, 6/23/05).
In our
opinion, there are numerous factors in this shift in international
opinion of
the US. The US-led war in Iraq is the most
significant factor,
for obvious reasons. Other factors
include (1) the failure of the US to successfully combat the incessant
vitriol,
toward the US, emanating from anti-American Middle Eastern and European
media,
(2) the dislike and distrust a nation inherently engenders as a result
of being
“top dog” and, (3) the fact that China simply isn’t perceived as an
issue, by
many, in the countries surveyed.
Additionally, governments, especially corrupt
ones, in order
to maintain control of their citizenry, MUST seek to divert their
citizen’s
grievances from the internal causes of those grievances.
Exporting these grievances upon the US is,
thus, the perfect outlet.
The very fact that US influence is so
substantial in
the world, that its influence MUST be taken into account, in EVERY
other
nation’s issues, surely angers many.
Given how many international issues in which the US
is involved, there is surely
enough for which the average citizen, of other nations, can readily
disagree –
with sufficient prompting from their governments and media. No nation is perfect, and people will never
agree on everything so, virtually every citizen, of every nation,
including the
US, will have some
sort of
complaint regarding the legitimacy of the US being the sole world
superpower.
By the very nature of its current supreme
position globally, the US is
thus painted with an exceedingly broad brush to have “obviously”
reached this
position, not by virtue of its form of government, and free enterprise
system,
but solely by illegitimate and even criminal means – means of which
corrupt
governments are quite familiar, and accustomed to implementing.
Africa
On June
17, The Washington Times reported that the US
is examining reports that the Sudan
has renewed covert support for al-Qaeda and other terrorist
organizations. According to the report, Sudan has agreed to train al-Qaeda and
related
operatives – including training in chemical and biological warfare,
utilizing
expertise and technology acquired from Saddam Hussein – in return for
terrorist
retaliation against foreign involvement in Darfur. The report notes that the agreement,
reportedly executed in July of 2004, may only involve certain
components of the
Sudanese government.
The
Washington Times report states that nearly 500 terrorists are being
trained in Sudan. There are four al-Qaeda camps in Sudan, including one in Khartoum, and
another camp in the same city,
solely for Sudanese militants. Last
year, Sudan
reportedly released the frozen assets of al-Qaeda operatives, and the
organization is now being provided with support by portions of the
Sudanese
army.
