In our opinion, the most interesting development this month, in the War on Terrorism, was new intelligence indicating that Osama bin Laden had relinquished day-to-day control of jihadi operations, while still remaining the jihadi movement’s spiritual figurehead and main moneyman. Ayman al-Zawahiri appears to be maintaining liaisons with local groups and sectors of certain intelligence services, and setting the general technical planning (and likely authorizing certain attacks and distributing responsibility).

It also appears that Al-Qaeda has given Abu Musab al-Zarqawi control over the Iraqi conflict, and freedom to utilize the network based in Western Europe. Seif al-Adel, Saad bin Laden, and others, located in Iran, appear to be serving a logistical purpose and maintaining the Gulf network.

            This thinking seems to be confirmed by an intercepted message sent by bin Laden to Zarqawi urging him to execute attacks on US soil. According to one of Zarqawi’s top aides, Zarqawi discussed, within his inner circle, the possibility of bombing schools, restaurants and movie theaters inside the US. Operatives would acquire visas to Honduras, proceed into Mexico, and bribe their way into the US. The aide claims Zarqawi stopped putting energy into these plans due to a lack of operatives willing and capable of carrying out the mission.[i]

            Progress is being made in Iraq that cannot be ignored. 58 Americans were killed in February, which is quite a high number, but we must remember it’s the fewest number of troops killed in a month, since July 2004, when 54 were killed. This number is less than half of the high point in November 2004.[ii]

            The latest WMD report criticizes American intelligence, as it should. But there’s a major point made in the report that the mainstream media isn’t covering. It states that the Iraqi National Congress and Ahmed Chalabi had a “negligble impact” on American WMD intelligence, and that they provided only two defectors. It also confirmed that the INC was not connected to the defector “Curveball”, and there’s no evidence that Chalabi, the INC, or anyone else directed him to lie.

            It should also be mentioned that two key American supporters of Chalabi have had obstruction-of-justice charges dismissed. Francis Brooke and Margaret Bartel were accused by Zuhair al-Maliky, an unqualified judge appointed by Paul Bremer.[iii] This surely does give ammunition to those that say the war against Chalabi by the State Department and Coalition Provincial Authority was politically motivated.

            There was also new evidence released that Iraq was tied to Al-Qaeda. Documents obtained by the Associated Press show that a detainee at Guantanomo Bay is a former Iraqi soldier, who was ALSO a member of the Taliban, AND a “trusted agent” of Osama bin Laden. In August 1998, he traveled to Pakistan alongside an Iraqi intelligence agent, where he planned to attack foreign embassies, including the US embassy, with chemical mortars.[iv]

            In other venues, anthrax was confirmed to be present in two Pentagon mail facilities. It is the same genetic strain as that found in 2001.[v] Why isn’t this getting more media attention?

 

Middle East

            The United Nations is in its worst crisis of the last fifty years. The UN-sponsored Oil-For-Food Report was issued, and it criticized Kofi Annan for not noticing widespread corruption, not the least of which is his son’s shady dealings. Perhaps a second investigation should be launched into bribery of inspectors and the personal agendas of certain staff, such as El-Baradei of the IAEA.

Recently a new case of bribery was revealed. Tariq Aziz offered $2 million to the UN’s chief weapons inspector from 1991 to 1997, Rolf Ekeus, to slant his reporting on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. Ekeus, who reported the story, claims he did not take the bribe.[vi]

            In a development not covered by cable news, the New York Times published a report basically claiming there were weapons of mass destruction-related equipment and facilities before the war began. The Iraqi government believes looters systematically dismantled tons of machinery from the 90 important weapons sites – as confirmed by a UN report – and took items including high-precision equipment used to make nuclear components. Equipment capable of producing chemical, biological or nuclear weapons was missing from 8-10 sites. Some material appears to have been transported to other countries, as chemical weapons equipment has been seized in Jordan.[vii]

            Although the situation in Iraq is not satisfactory, it does seem the insurgency is faltering. According to some reports, Baathist insurgents want to negotiate and participate in the fledgling democracy, if given a chance. The Iraqi people, and even the Baathists, are turning on the foreign insurgents. After a deadly suicide bombing killed 125 in Hilla, and the relatives of the Jordanian responsible, celebrated him as a “martyr”, thousands of Shiites came out and protested against terrorism.[viii]

            According to polls, opinion among Iraqis regarding the situation there has reached a new high. 62% feel conditions are headed in the right direction, while only 23% hold the opposite view. 48% favor a “special role” for religion in government, while 44% think religion and government should be totally separate. Only 4% of the Iraqis feel that Sharia should be the most important element of the constitution.[ix]

            Major progress has been made in assisting the Iraqis in taking control of their country. On March 24, the Iraqi “Wolves Brigade” recaptured the Sunni-dominated southwestern portion of Mosul, from Al-Qaeda, Ansar and Baathist forces. Many prisoners were taken. This was the first time the Iraqi forces won such a significant engagement, without Coalition intervention.

            Unfortunately, it appears negotiations between the EU3 (France, Germany, Britain) and Iran have reached a stalemate. Fortunately, according to the statements of public leaders, the EU3 are also onboard with prioritizing the freedom of the Iranian people as a critical component of the negotiations. This may signal a US-European effort to assist the Iranian people. However, it is unlikely that the mullahs’ rule will collapse before they have developed a nuclear weapon.

            Thus, the Israelis are preparing to stop, or at least delay, the Iranians from obtaining a nuclear weapon. According to leaked information, an Israeli assault would comprise both air and ground operations. The Shaldag commandos are reportedly to be already training, using a mock uranium enrichment plant similar to the facility at Natanz. F-15 jets of Squadron 69 using bunker buster bombs would perform the aerial assault.[x]

            This summer of 2005 is going to be a hot one. Demonstrations in Iran are going to be intense, a new president will be “elected” in Iran, democracy is sweeping across the region, and the situation with Lebanon and Syria is going to be extremely interesting. Three US naval carriers are heading to the Middle East. The USS Theodore Roosevelt is moving to the region from the Atlantic Ocean and the USS Carl Vinson is crossing the Indian Ocean. For the first time since February 2004, three major carrier groups will be in the area.[xi] Yes, this summer is indeed going to be hot.

It does appear that the Iranian situation will have to be resolved with force. Despite the negotiations, and intense observation of the Iranians, by several governments, there is intelligence indicating that Iran is poised to establish a secret nuclear engineering facility, within a year, so they can train their own experts. And by doing this, the US and the IAEA will not know who they are, or how to locate them to verify operations.[xii]

            Something significant must happen regarding Iran. Whether you view the recent developments in Iran as a humanitarian issue, a pro-democracy issue, an anti-WMD issue, or an anti-terrorism issue – Iran is at the forefront of it all. Iranian opposition television has reported that, according to documents from the Fajir Garrison of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Iran has at least 40,000 agents inside Iraq.[xiii]

Stopping Iran may be the key to preventing a massive war between Iran, Hezbollah and Syria, which would hurt, possibly reverse, progress in all Muslim countries. This is a serious concern, as highlighted by the fact that the Israeli General Staff foresees a major war with Syria occurring by 2007 that involves Iran and Hezbollah.[xiv]

            There were significant developments among the Iranian opposition this month. One day after 565 dissidents published an open letter criticizing the mullahs, a major coalition of expatriates formed the Iranian Opposition Council, which includes all manner of ideologies from republicans to monarchists. The Council will begin activities in mid-April.[xv] However, according to Iranian activist sources, the Bush Administration is not taking this group too seriously and they likely lack popular support inside Iran.

            Moshen Sazegara, an Iranian dissident, once imprisoned by the mullahs, is likely to make the news when Iran implodes. He has joined the calls for a national referendum on whether the Iranian constitution should be revised to make Iran a secular country, and whether unelected clerics should remain in power. Among Iranian dissidents though, it appears Sazegara isn’t too popular, as he founded the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps in 1979, and previously worked with Ayatollah Khomeini.

However, his joining the Washington Institute for Near East Policy can be a hopeful sign, as he brings attention to the referendum cause, and begins pushing for further investigation into Iran’s role in overseas assassinations, and a 1992 bombing of a Berlin restaurant. In 1997, a German court found that Iranian authorities had directed the bombing. Some California-based Iranian activists are denouncing the referendum movement, which WorldThreats.com feels is ridiculous. Reza Pahlavi, the son of the Shah, overthrown by the radicals, has joined the call for the referendum as well.[xvi]

            Over to Lebanon, where up to 800,000 Lebanese protestors gathered at the grave of Rafiq Hariri, in downtown Beirut, to demand an end to Syrian control over their country. Keeping in mind the fact that Lebanon only has 3 million people, this is an impressive number. This equaled or exceeded the pro-Syrian demonstrations launched by Hezbollah and Syrian intelligence. Those demonstrations, instigated in response to the initial anti-Syrian demonstrations, were not as they seemed.

Syrian intelligence forced storeowners to close during the protests, and pressured them to head to the Mazza highway, to join the rally. Over a half-million Syrians, who work in Lebanon, were called upon to participate in the demonstrations. According to some reports, thousands of Syrians were bussed in and Syrians attempting to leave Lebanon were denied passage.

Government workers and students were threatened with losing their jobs, or failing their classes. Add that to Hezbollah’s support for the demonstrations, and you have one colossal spectacle.[xvii] And that makes it even more amazing that the Lebanese, soon after, managed to generate equally massive demonstrations – only entirely comprised of Lebanese, with no manipulations.

            Bashar Assad is in his most vulnerable moment since his regime assumed power. In a development that some say means hell has frozen over, France and the US are partnering to pressure Assad into leaving Lebanon, and beginning reforms at home. President Bush has demanded that Syrian intelligence, and the army, leave Lebanon before the May elections, “or else”, which probably means UN sanctions, which would be devastating for Syria. The West should also support parliamentary elections occurring on a more local level (county) than by provinces of which there are five, as it would help diminish Syrian and Hezbollah intimidation.

            Jordan’s King Abdullah has warned American and Israeli officials that Syria is planning on using Hezbollah to launch terrorist attacks in Israel.[xviii] Such an operation would distract world attention from the Lebanese situation, and allow Syria to argue that they’re withdrawal from Lebanon has unleashed chaos.

            The questionable Israeli intelligence source, Debkafile, has reported that there has been a “complete collapse” of the pro-Syrian political and intelligence structure in Lebanon. There has reportedly been an abrupt withdraw of all Syrian commands, including military-intelligence chief, General Ghazaleh. The Lebanese secret service chief, General Raymond Azar, fled to Paris, and the Internal Security Forces head, General Ali al-Haji, is ready to quit.[xix]

However, while WorldThreats.com’s sources indicate there is a less visible presence and more “free” air on the ground, another source with close contacts within the Lebanese opposition leaders claims Syria is merely reorganizing, and that “the opposite is happening”.

            WorldThreats.com supports the Lebanon and Syria Liberation Act put forth by two representatives. It calls for import and export sanctions on countries and companies that contribute to Syria’s weapons of mass destruction efforts, calls for supporting a program for a transition to democracy, and aiding pro-democratic and human rights groups, including assistance through TV and radio broadcasts.[xx]

            The Palestinian areas have long been radicalized. We’ve all seen the videos of children’s TV programs touting the glories of becoming a martyr, and killing Israelis. They’re taught that Israeli innocents and soldiers alike are synonymous targets. When asked, many analysts vacillated, stating that first, the propaganda would have to end for there to be peace, and then the radicalized people would have to die off or become powerless

Yet conditions have changed, probably due to recent elections, and developments in surrounding areas. Over the past six months, there has been a tremendous drop in support for suicide bombings by Palestinians. Previously, 77% of Palestinians supported terrorist tactics, and now only 29% do![xxi] If this dramatic reversal of opinion holds, this would be a greater development than the elections in the Palestinian areas, and the death of Arafat.

            We found a particular survey in Saudi Arabia extremely interesting. We’re all aware of the significant influence that Wahhabism wields there, and of the extreme radicalism inside Saudi society. The SAS Center in Jeddah published a poll indicating that 87% of the Saudis supported female voting rights in local council elections. This runs quite counter to what many would expect in that country.[xxii]

 

Europe

            As noted previously, negotiations with Iran continue, but little progress is being realized. The Iranians have rejected any form of economic incentives, which may have been a shrewd move on the part of the US, as it demonstrates that Iran is stubbornly unwilling to negotiate. Europe is also discussing, with the US, the situation of the Iranian people, and is issuing statements of moral support.

Negotiations are also being conducted that are aimed at requiring France and other European countries to list Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. The French argue that they are the perfect venue to push for Hezbollah’s reformation into an unarmed political party. Despite these disagreements, one can definitely argue that European-US cooperation is quite substantial on Iran. France and the US also stand side-by-side in pressuring Syria and, according to some reports, are even considering how to undermine Assad.

            However, should Hezbollah refuse to disarm, they cannot be tolerated indefinitely. Hezbollah leader Nasrallah has stated, on TV, that a European Union blacklist of his group would “destroy” them by drying up funding and critical sources of moral, political and material support. The West would do well to remember this statement, while keeping in mind that it may be aimed at increasing European-US tension over Hezbollah.[xxiii]

            Shady events continue to transpire in the Ukraine. The former interior minister Yuriy Kravchenko “killed himself” right before being questioned about the murder of an investigative journalist in 2000. The journalist, who died from two gunshots to the head, left a note blaming the “suicide” on the former Ukrainian government. However, it is hard to believe he killed himself by shooting his head twice, but is also equally hard to believe that, if he were murdered, apparently by government-related forces, they’d leave a suicide note pinning the death on themselves. This case is difficult to fathom, to say the least.

 

Latin America

            This was a relatively quiet month for the continent. Intelligence sources indicate that there is evidence of greater collaboration between Hezbollah and Colombian rebels inside Venezuela and Colombia. It is reassuring to know that the Bush Administration appears to have an eye on Chavez, as it was leaked that the US is creating a policy to “contain” him.[xxiv]

 

Africa

            UN reports are indicating that the number of deaths in Darfur has been greatly underestimated. The sad, depressing news continues there, with no foreseeable improvement.

            The IAEA and CIA recently “outed” Egypt. They have disclosed that there were secret Egyptian operations in chemical weapons and nuclear weapons development, particularly in plutonium and uranium fuel cycles. There is also evidence that sophisticated chemical weapons technology was passed to Saddam Hussein. Over the past 20 years, Egypt has failed to report the use of small amounts of plutonium in 16 experiments in creating nuclear fuel. Research took place at two research reactors at the Inshas, in the Nile Delta. One plant was not declared and was used for experiments, and design information was not submitted for a new facility currently being built.[xxv]

 

Asia

            The biggest development in Asia was that the Chinese government approved a resolution authorizing the use of military force to stop Taiwan from declaring independence. The Taiwanese then launched a dramatic pro-peace demonstration, and the US called the resolution “unfortunate”.[xxvi] The Taiwanese defense minister has become particularly vocal about the Chinese threat, warning that the mainland will have 800 missiles aimed at the island next year.[xxvii]

            WorldThreats.com can’t confirm the following report, and no sources seem to know much about it. WorldNetDaily.com is reporting that documents in the possession of Iraqi interior minister Falah al-Naqib indicate a Russian and possibly Indian role in the insurgency in Iraq. However, no quotes and no detail are given. It simply states that Russian intelligence met in early January 2005 with Iranian and Indian intelligence to discuss how to get the US out of the region as soon as possible, or how to at least weaken the US position.

            One of the tactics they reportedly discussed was arming Iran with modern weaponry for use to attack US forces in Iraq. The memo also reportedly gives evidence that Iraq sponsored Abu Musab al-Zarqawi before 9-11, and that both Russia and Libya have played a role in helping Al-Qaeda. In a February 2005 meeting, Russia, North Korea and Iran had a discussion about how to reduce US influence in the region.[xxviii]

            Freedom has broken loose in Kyrgyzstan. President Askar Akayev’s government collapsed after the opposition stormed government offices, and the presidential compound, due to allegations of election fraud. The parliament has agreed to a new election, and opposition figure Kadyrebkov has been apponted as the interim president. Akayev fled to Russia, via Kazakhstan, and is currently negotiating the future of the country’s government.

            Some suspect the US had a secret role in the events. Before parliamentary elections, an opposition paper ran photos of a very expensive home being built for Akayev, which caused outrage. The paper, it has been found, received US government grants, and printed through Freedom House, a printing press financed by the US.[xxix]

Ryan Mauro is a geo-political analyst whose web site WorldThreats.com is a recognized top flight source for analysis on the world and nation.  Ryan's keen insight and independent analysis makes him a valuable guest writer and we are proud to offer his work on MILNET.