MILNET Brief
  Latin American Terrorism, 9/15/2004, Update 10/23/2006

"The alert has been sounded"

- Jose Luis Santiago Vasconcelos, Mexico's top anti-crime prosecutor 1.

With the U.S. Intelligence Community focusing on terrorist entry to the United States, it is no surprise that the U.S. has notified its neighbors to the South that al-Qaeda and indeed any middle eastern terrorist organization may be traveling throughout Latin America to reach the U.S.  In addition, since travel over those distances may require stopovers, there is a strong likelihood that terrorists will set up support stations.  Indeed, the 9/11 Commission found strong evidence of at least one high ranking lieutenant in the al-Qaeda network traveling throughout Latin America. 2

In addition, Latin America's own terrorist organizations may set up relationships with middle eastern terrorists.  Since Latin America has no shortage of terrorist groups to worry about, this cannot be good news.

A brief survey of recent news stories of terrorism in Latin America yielded plenty of events to consider when analyzing Latin America's terrorism problem.  Al-Qaeda can only make things worse for them.  The coverage is somewhat spotty due to expiration of online archives, perhaps limiting the accuracy of news reporting online to that last 5 to 6 years.  In the period after 1995 there were over 1000 events found online.

A perusal of the U.S. Global Patterns of Terrorism, published annually since1995, yields a total of  over 1000 reported events.  The "Patterns" report tends to focus on major events and at times may lump events occurring over a week as part of a single reporting event.

We should also note that some Latin American terrorism events are actually a derivative of drug cartel intimidation of officials and media fighting the drug industry -- for instance in Colombia, nearly all terrorist attacks against local of federal officials are drug related.

The countries of Latin America are broken up into four groups: 
  1. Those with their own Muslim populations which could provide a populace that might hide middle eastern terrorists
  2. Those countries where terrorists live and operate already, providing a cover for middle eastern terrorists or their local terrorists are also multi-national.
  3. Those countries where middle eastern terrorists have already been spotted
  4. Those countries where terrorists can find strategic or high desirability targets

The chart below summarizes the four groups of countries (some may appear in multiple groups further aggravating the threat):

Muslim Population
 Active Terrorist Organizations
(Attacks:
95=92, '96=84, '97=122, '98=111
'99=121, '00=193, '01=201, '02=46,  '03=53), total = 1024
 Middle Eastern Terrorists Spotted
 Strategic
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay




AUC => Colombia

ELN }
 Bolivia
Colombia
Venezuela

EPR *1  =>  Mexico

ETA has a small presence in Latin American countries, presumably as remote hideouts for its Spanish speaking terrorists from Portugal and Spain.

FARC  }
 Colombia
Panama

Hamas
 }
 Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay


Hezbollah }
 Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Panama
Paraguay
Venezuela

MRTA *2
(Tupac)
SL
(Shining Path)
 }
 Peru

URNG *3  => Guatemala
 Honduras - Adnan G. El Shukrijumah, al-Qaeda

Mexico - Farida Goolam Mahamed Ahmed went from Mexico City to McAllen, Texas

Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay -  Hamas and Hezbollah have continued to be linked to terrorist events in this nations.
 El Salvador - Aid in War on Terror

Mexico - Gateway to U.S.
46% of all illegal passports caught at U.S. border  are  from Brazilians  attempting to enter through Mexico.

Panama - Panama Canal


Notes: 

*1  = EPR is a small group and tends not to make many headlines in Mexico, however, the remain of great concern due to their cover within Mexico, having popular support amongst a under reported anti-government underground.

*2  = MRTA was essentially eliminated in 1997 after their occupation of the Japanese Embassy in Peru, and did not show notable activity through 2003.

*3 = In December of 1996, the URNG (an umbrella group merging the four terrorist groups ORPA, EGP, FAR, PGT) signed an agreement with the Guatemalan government and was supposed to create a legal (and non violent) political party targeted for the second half of 1997.  It appears that except for occasional wannabes, the URNG has transitioned from a wet works to a political action party and does not appear in 2001-2003 activity reports.


A USA Today/A.P. story provides an excellent starting point for discussion of the Latin American terrorist problem, and indeed the fertile ground for al-Qaeda.  MILNET's intelligence sources confirm the basic elements:  local terrorist groups, several governments with corruption in the right places to aid or foster terrorism, people and drug smuggling, and many areas not well policed which can provide sanctuary and training grounds.  Coupled with lax travel vigilance in many Latin American countries that continues despite current conditions, all make Latin America ripe for not only a breeding ground for terrorists of all types, but fertile ground for Latin American cells of Al Qaeda with philosophies and targets with local rationales similar to those in the middle east.  The targets will, of course, include local governments, but also the U.S. and Canada.  There is also a rationale for attacking Mexico for their cooperation with the U.S..

With some nine major terrorist groups active in Latin America, it is clear that any organization that offers to spread their terror throughout the southern hemisphere is dangerous indeed. 

Most analysts fear the Muslim population in Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay will erupt in al Qaeda sparked violence if counterterrorism efforts are not strengthened.  With the notice of an al-Qaeda lieutenant being since in Honduras, presumably setting up travel for al-Qaeda terrorists through Latin America into the U.S., it is clear that lax border security could allow al-Qaeda and its loose network of middle eastern terrorist groups to infiltrate the southern hemisphere with relative ease.

The U.S. has noted this fact, and in recent times has worked with a seven nation cooperative to conduct exercises to counter a terrorist seizure or attack on vessels transiting the Panama Canal.

A spike of activity in 2000 and 2001 has tapered off since September 11, 2001, presumably because of a magnitude increase in cooperation between the members of the Organization of American States and the United States at intelligence and law enforcement levels throughout the hemisphere.

Updates:

10/23/2006:  A recent study 6 by the staff and Congressional Representatives of the U.S. Congress Subcommittee on Homeland Security and the Border, revealed some startling new information the ties between Latin America and the influx of terrorists into the U.S.
  1. 30,147 OTMS (other than mexicans) apprehended in FY2003, 44,614 in FY2004, 165,178 in FY2005 and 108,025 in FY2006.  The implication of double, triple or up to nine times the number who slipped through. 
  2. DHS has reported a 41% increase in apprehensions of Special Interest Aliens (aliens from countries such as Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Pakistan, Cuba, Brazil, Ecuador, China, Russia, Yemen, Albania, Yugoslavia and Afghanistan)
  3. "The data indicates that each year hundreds of illegal aliens from countries known to harbor terrorists or promote terrorism are routinely encountered and apprehended attempting to enter the U.S. illegally between Ports of Entry." 
  4. FBI Director Meuller told the committee on Mar 8, 2005, "...there are individuals from countries with known al-Qa'ida connections who are changing their Islamic surnames to Hispanic-sounding names and obtaining false Hispanic identities, learning to speak Spanish and pretending to be Hispanic immigrants."
  5. According to senior U.S. military and intelligence officials, Venezuela is "emerging as a potential hub of terrorism in the Western Hemisphere, providing assistance to Islamic radicals from the Middle East and other terrorists.
  6. Venezuela is providing support -- including identity documents--the could prove useful to radical Islamic groups...the Venezuela government has issued thousands of cedulas, the equivalent of social security cards, to people from places such as Cuba, Columbia, and Middle Eastern nations that host foreign terrorist organizations...some of these cedulas could be subsequently used to obtain Venezuelan passports and even American visas, which could allow the holder to elude immigration checks at the U.S.-Mexican border with fraudulent Venezuelan documents.
  7. Islamic radical groups that support Hamas, Hezbollah and Islamiya Al Gamat are all active in Latin America.  These groups generate funds through money laundering, drug trafficking, and arms deals, making millions of dollars every year via their multiple illicit activities. These cells reach back to the Middle East and extend to this hemisphere...
  8. Federal law enforcement entities estimate they apprehend approximately 10 to 30 percent of illegal aliens crossing the border (this leaves 70 to 90 percent who are NOT apprehended).
 

Sources:
  1. Latin America on Alert for Terrorism, USA Today Online/A.P., 8/25/2004
  2. 9/11 Commission Monograph:  9/11 and Terrorist Travel, The National Commission on Terrorist Attacks on the United States, 9/2004
  3. Patterns of Global Terrorism, The U.S. State Department (MlLNET Mirrors)
  4. Latin America:  Terrorism Issues, CRS, 1/14/2005
  5. Back Door to Terror, Oliver North, Fox News, 10/21/2006
  6. A Line In The Sand: Confronting the Threat at our Southwest Border, U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Homeland Security (MILNET Mirror), October 2006



© Copyright, 2004-2006, Michael G. Crawford for MILNET