MILNET Brief
  The Iraq Plan, 01/11/07

"When I addressed you just over a year ago, nearly 12 million Iraqis had cast their ballots for a unified and democratic nation. The elections of 2005 were a stunning achievement. We thought that these elections would bring the Iraqis together — and that as we trained Iraqi security forces, we could accomplish our mission with fewer American troops.

But in 2006, the opposite happened. The violence in Iraq - particularly in Baghdad — overwhelmed the political gains the Iraqis had made. Al Qaeda terrorists and Sunni insurgents recognized the mortal danger that Iraq's elections posed for their cause. And they responded with outrageous acts of murder aimed at innocent Iraqis. They blew up one of the holiest shrines in Shia Islam — the Golden Mosque of Samarra — in a calculated effort to provoke Iraq's Shia population to retaliate. Their strategy worked. Radical Shia elements, some supported by Iran, formed death squads. And the result was a vicious cycle of sectarian violence that continues today."

- President George Bush, Televised Speech, 01/10/07  4

The Iraq Plan will involve sending in up to 20,000 new troops by moving forward replacement timetables and holding back many of those scheduled to be deployed out of combat.  In addition the President has set a number of political goals for the Iraqi government, most of which will be used as tripwires to further U.S. involvement, more or less, in Iraq.  The President emphasizes that Prime Minister Malaki of Iraq believes more troops are needed to bring stability to Baghdad.  The plan has been described by many as a temporary surge for a period of approximately six months that allows the U.S. to aid the Iraqis to stabilize the situation mostly in Baghdad where the majority of the violence occurs.  The plan also addresses the logistics route for insurgent supplies from Syria in through the Anbar Province of northwest Iraq.

With the goal to stem sectarian violence the  plan includes:
Democrats, via their uber dissenting mouthpiece Senator Ted Kennedy from Massachusetts have claimed they will cut off any funding. Kennedy said in a speech in Washington before the National Press Club, "Our bill will say that no additional troops can be sent and no additional dollars can be spent on such an escalation unless and until Congress approves the president's plan. Our proposal is a straightforward exercise of the power granted to Congress by Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution."  Unfortunately for the Democrats, Congress already approved the war in November of 2002, and  the money to be used for the troop movements in 2007 are already in place for preparing for the next wave of troop replacements and cannot be withdrawn. 

Kennedy's statements are grandiose at a minimum and hyperbole at best, since Article I provides power of Congress to declare war, which it already has done.  In any case, the President's troop movements, certainly a hot political issue, only amount to a 15% increase, hardly a big increase worth crying about.  Indeed deployment of troops can be accomplished for a period of up to 60 days without Congress' approval according to current law, and new legislation cannot effect any timetables during that time.  At most, a future allocation of funds such as a supplemental, may be the first opportunity for Congress to exercise their power to limit Presidential action.  That process is expected to begin in late February.  Despite Kennedy's irrational call for what would soon become a Constitutional showdown, one which most scholars believe the Democrats would lose, there will undoubtedly be a push by Democrats to start an early withdrawal of troops.

The plan calls for the majority of the troop increases, indeed nearly all, to be used to stabilize Baghdad and rout out the majority of the insurgents, both Shiite and Sunni.  Once security improves, then the U.S. forces will insert Iraqis into the fight and pull back as support. 18 Iraqi Brigades will remain in positions along with Iraqi Police, in the neighborhoods of Baghdad to continue to enforce security. The job will require much more hands-on training of the Iraqis and the U.S. advisor forces have already been increased in anticipation for that actuality.  To summarize the changes in security strategy in Baghdad:
Before
 New Plan
U.S. would clear insurgents out of a neighborhood, then leave to fight elsewhere, with only token force left behind, typically Iraqi Police.
 U.S. and Iraqi troops will clear insurgents, militants, militia out of neighborhood, then leave Iraqi Army Brigades behind to enforce/motivate Iraqi Police.
U.S. allowed Iraqi Army troops to be embedded in U.S. formations
 U.S. forces will be embedded in Iraqi formations
U.S. and Iraqi formations not allowed into certain areas due to political or religious sensitivity
 U.S. and Iraqi forces go where they need to go to prosecute militants, insurgents, militia and their supporters with no regard for political affiliation or religious sect.

Also key in the strategy is the shoring up of security in the Anbar Providence of northwest Iraq.  Anbar provides a logistics and support route from Syria into Baghdad and indeed the entire country.  For his reason, the U.S. will add at least a brigade there to aid in current missions to weed out the insurgents and some small Al-Qaeda forces that can be found there.

According to sources talking with journalists at Fox News, the 82nd Airborne's 2nd Brigade, which is Kuwait today, will be the first of the forces to go in, but it is not clear if their destination will be Baghdad or Anbar.

Below is the Fact Sheet 6 on the Iraq Plan published by the White House on 1/10/07:

Fact Sheet: The New Way Forward in Iraq

     Fact sheet Highlights of the Iraq Strategy Review (PDF)
     Fact sheet Background Briefing by Senior Administration Officials
     Fact sheet In Focus: Renewal in Iraq
     Fact sheet en Español

The President's New Iraq Strategy Is Rooted In Six Fundamental Elements:

  1. Let the Iraqis lead;
  2. Help Iraqis protect the population;
  3. Isolate extremists;
  4. Create space for political progress;
  5. Diversify political and economic efforts; and
  6. Situate the strategy in a regional approach.

Key Elements Of The New Approach: Security

Iraqi:

Coalition:

Both Coalition And Iraqi:

Key Elements Of The New Approach: Political

Iraqi:

Coalition:

Both Coalition And Iraqi:

Key Elements Of The New Approach: Economic

Iraqi:

Coalition:

Key Elements Of The New Approach: Regional

Iraqi:

Coalition:

Both Coalition And Iraqi:

Sources:
  1. Officials: Troop Surge in Iraq to Begin This Month, Nick Simeone, Trish Turne of Fox News, and the A.P., 01/09/07
  2. Sen. Levin Supports Temporary Surge of U.S. Troops in Iraq, With Conditions, Fox News, 1/04/07
  3. Official: First wave of troops to Iraq by Jan. 31, MSNBC, 01/09/07 (A.P. and Reuters contribution to the report)
  4. Text of the President's Speech, Fox News, MILNET Brief, 01/10/07
  5. Highlights of the Iraq Strategy Review (PDF), The White House, 01/10/07
  6. Fact Sheet: The New Way Forward in Iraq, The White House, 01/10/07
  7. The Iraqi Plan, Secretary of State Condeleezza Rice, The White House, 01/11/07


© Copyright 2006, Michael G. Crawford