MILNET: Winter Update on Mideast

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MILNET's Regional Updates

Our winter update features a summary of recent events in the Middle East countries indicated in white on the map below. We also summarize some of the key facts for each the middle eastern countries. Note that the links in the first table below navigate to the same Centcom background information as the links embedded in the map.

MILNET's Middle East Update, December 02, 2002

Note: On the map, Chad, Niger, Nigeria, Tunisia, European countries, and former Soviet Union States are not "live".

Middle East Briefings

Bahrain Bahrain has been very cooperative in the U.S. led war on terrorism. In September, 2002, Bahrain turned over Mukhtar al-Bakri, alleged to be part of a Buffalo, N.Y. terrorist cell, 5 others in that cell were arrested on September 15, 2002. al-Bakri was extradited immediately and appeared in court in the U.S. on September 16, 2002. On November 22, 2002, Bahrain officials aided the U.S. in arresting senior Al-Qaeda Lieutenant Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri, allegedly has been behind a series of murderous attacks on American targets, including the October 2000 bombing of the destroyer USS Cole in Yemen. Recent election results showed that 12 secularists and nine Islamic candidates won seats, making the 40-seat legislature representative of the tiny kingdom's political spectrum. The two woman candidates (first in the country's history) lost. Bahrain also hosted the latest computer versus human chess match between Deep Fritz (Deep Blue derivative) and Vladmir Kramnik. The match ended in a 4-4 tie. ⁶

Egypt Mubarak continues to condemn both Israel and Palestinians for continuing the violence. Also supported U.S. response to September 11th, however support has been muted now that the Taliban have been ejected. Has co-operated with financial seizures and controls, clamping down on charities thought to funnel funds to Al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations. Extremely outspoken against any military action against any of the Arab nations including Iraq and Iran. Extremely negative response to U.S. President George Bush's "Axis of Evil" remarks. Early in February 2002, Egypt won over $10 Billion in aid from nations and international institutions, with about $2 billion in immediate financial aid. However the remainder depends on transparent and acceptable money management practices. At the same time Egypt has voted with the OPEC oil cartel to reduce oil production thus forcing increases in oil prices worldwide. ⁶

Iran "Iranian President Mohammad Khatami mounted an unusually strong attack on the U.S. government on Wednesday, accusing it of seeking a pretext to attack Iraq and of posing a danger to the whole world." This according to a December 4, 2002 article on Reuters Newswire. The A.P. Newswire reports " A hard-line group, best known for disrupting reformist gatherings and beating up students, declared a "holy war" Wednesday to rid Iran of reformers who promote Western democracy and challenge the country's supreme leader. Also, there have been many reports of Al Qaeda leaders being harbored in Iran, which of course the country denies. A Russian built nuclear reactor in Iran also has non-proliferation proponents on edge -- Iran burns more waste gas from natural oil well heads than could power the entire country yet they want a nuclear reactor -- and the reactor is of a type that can be used to breed weapons grade material. Some propose an Israeli like airborne attack on the plant. There is also strong evidence that Iran is aiding Islamic Militants fight the Kurds in Northern Iraq. At the same time, Iran claims to have turned over terrorist suspects to Saudi Arabia who then has given them over to U.S. ⁶
U.S. believes Iran is continuing to develop NBC weapons and remains under export controls. U.S. believes Iran would trade NBC weapons with terrorist organizations.

Iraq A new U.N. resolution has inspectors returning to Iraq for the first time since December 1998, and a report on their WMD reserves and ballistic missiles is due from Iraq on December 8. Many believe the regime in Iraq is simply stalling for time, while the U.S. continues to build up forces for an attack. In a bizarre and surprising offer, Saddam Hussein, in November 2002, offered amnesty to Iraqis who fled their home country. And even more bizarre, many have taken up the offer and returned. ⁶
U.S. believes that Iraq is continuing to develop NBC weapons and remains under export controls. U.S. believes Iraq would trade NBC weapons with terrorist organizations.

Israel The Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to escalate. After a large number of incursions and a huge debate over alleged war crimes, the Israeli government continues to respond to suicide bombings with ever increasing force. Meanwhile the conservative party in Israel led by Benjamin Netnahyu, former prime Minister and now Defense Minister, is thought to be primed to take over the government. There is little or no hope in sight for a resolution to the conflict. Iraq and Iran appear to be helping the more radical Palestinians as well as Hamas and Hezbollah. And of course Iraq threatens to pull Israel into any war started by a U.S. attack on Iraq. This time, however, Israel says they will not hold back. ⁶
Israel is known to have or is able to assemble rapidly a number of nuclear weapons however their constitution prohibits sale and only allows use in defense.

Jordan Jordon is walking a tightrope, hoping not to anger their chief oil importer, Iraq, and their chief military/political ally, the United States. While publicly refusing to allow Jordanian bases for any operations against Iraq, they recently helped in a little saber rattling, cooperating in a huge military exercise with U.S. Forces along the Jordanian border. On Oct. 28, a gunman killed Laurence Foley, a U.S. aid agency official, outside his Amman home. Subsequently, U.S. authorized the departure of nonessential embassy personnel and dependents. The country continues, however, to import some $700 million in oil from Iraq and export some $242 million to the U.S. ⁶

Kuwait Kuwait has emerged as a promising staging ground for future U.S. attacks on Iraq, however some Islamic militants in the country are making their displeasure known. Since the Gulf War, U.S. serviceman stationed in Kuwait have enjoyed, for the most part, local public support. However, as turmoil in the Middle East has increased over uncertainties about future U.S. actions, and Islamic fundamentalists have begun stirring up anti-American fervor, Kuwait has also become dangerous for U.S. serviceman. On November 22, 2002, two U.S. soldiers were attacked and seriously wounded by a Kuwaiti policeman. The situation has been pretty tense since that time. ⁶

Lebanon November 21, 2002 - "A gunman today killed an American missionary at the clinic where she worked as a nurse, in what was described as the first targeted killing of a U.S. citizen in Lebanon in more than a decade..." reports the Washington Post. Like other Middle East countries, response to threats of a U.S. attack on Iraq have stirred Islamic extremists to action. Lebanon continues to foster radical Sunni muslims, and in this particular case, the events may have been triggered by a perception the missionaries the nurse worked with were trying to convert muslims to Christianity. And Hezbollah continues to supply Palestinian activists with "weapons for peace" as well as the occasional border incursion to attempt to distract Israel from the Palestinian attacks. Israelis living near the border continue to fear for their lives. Ten Lebanese Bedouins in the Israeli Army were arrested in October, accused of spying for Hezbollah according to an October 24, 2002 report from Reuters. Iraq's deputy prime minister Teriq Aziz met with Lebanese President Emile Lahoud, afterward taking a moment to declare his nation would be ready to respond to an American attack "within an hour." "We will confront these plans of aggression," he said. Israel is also quite upset over a pipeline diverting water from the Wazzani River in southern Lebanon, meant soon to siphon water for delivery to nearby hamlets and help the dry areas. Anti-Syrian dissidents living outside the region continue to call for Lebanese freedom from Syrian control with active PR through email and web pages. ⁶
MILNET believes Lebanon would purchase NBC weapons and supply them to terrorist organizations. MILNET also believes Lebanon is the source of weapons smuggled into Palestinian areas in Israel, including rockets, mortars and the explosives used by suicide bombers.

Libya Recent U.N. actions with Libya defy believe. The U.N. human rights committee has decided to elect Moyamar Khadaffi to a high position on the council for human rights in what appears to be a quid-pro-quo for Libya's turning over Lockerbie suspects for trail in Italy. ⁶
Libya is thought to be continuing to develop NBC weapons and remains under export controls. MILNET believes Libya would supply NBC weapons to terrorist organizations.

Oman "On November 28, 2002, Oman's Sultan Qaboos bin Said extended voting rights to all citizens 21 or over, in a move seen as a step toward wider political reform in the conservative state on the Arabian Sea. The sultan's decree, issued on Tuesday, ends restrictions that allowed only a quarter of the country's 1.8 million people, handpicked by the government, to take part in elections for the 83-member Consultative Shura Council. Voters" reports The Washington Post. The Foreign minister of Oman, Yusef Alawi Abdullah begrudgingly acknowleged the lead of the U.N. in requiring Iraq to disarm, and reluctantly agreed to follow the U.N. lead if it voted later to attack. He did stop short of endorsing U.S. action without approval of the U.N. ⁶

Qatar A new U.S. base in Qatar is being enlarged and prepped for a U.S. led attack on Iraq. Surprisingly, Qatar is inhabited by almost 100% Wahhabi Muslims, typically educated by the most radical of the Islamic schools. So far, however, the government has bent over backwards to provide the U.S. with whatever it needs. ⁶

Saudi Arabia Things haven't gone well for Saudi PR recently, with accusations of direct links to Al Qaeda members ranging from questionable donations from the Saudi Royal Family to a recent Washington Times Report -- "A raid on the apartment of an alleged member of the Hamburg [Germany] cell that led the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks turned up the business card of a diplomat from the embassy of Saudi Arabia in Berlin, and Saudi officials have not responded to German requests to explain how the defendant came to have the card" ⁵. This story broke following an unprecedented PR campaign by Saudi Arabia attempting to distance themselves from the terrorists. However, U.S. diplomats and the White House continue to stress the importance of the Saudi relationship in the middle east. ⁶

Syria The U.S. has asked Syria to close the Damascus office of Islamic Jihad, a terrorist group linked to Al Qaeda. It is the latest in Syrian support for terrorists, amongst them Hamas and Hezbollah, who aid Islamic Jihad in Palestinian suicide as well as high powered weapons attacks on Israel. ⁶
MILNET believes Syria would purchase NBC weapons and supply them to terrorist organizations. MILNET believes Syria's control of the Lebanese government is key in the Lebanese support of Hezbollah and Hamas mortar, rifle, rocket and suicide bomber attacks on Israel.

United Arabs
Emirate A September 3, 2002 report on the front page of Washington Post claimed that gold shipments intended for Al Qaeda passed through UAE from Karachi, Sudan to the Sudan, creating a wave of UAE denials. ⁶

Yemen Yemen continues to aid in finding terrorists, with several being rounded up in the last few months. A group of Al Qaeda leaders were killed by a CIA flown Predator firing a hellfire rocket. Some controversy over the action has arisen, predictably raising doubts of the legality of such action in a country not at War with the U.S. ⁶

Summary of populations of the various countries in the Middle East ^1,2,3,4

Country Population % muslim Faith mixture Troop Strength

Bahrain 586,000 100% Shia 68%,32% Sunni, 8,100

Egypt 67 million 94% Mostly Sunni , 6% others including Christian 450,000

Iran 65.6 million 99% Shia 89%, Sunni 10% 513,000

Iraq 22 million 97% Shia 60%, Sunni 37% 387,000

Israel 6.4 million 14% 82% Jewish, includes 17,000 Druse Arabs in the Golan Heights and several million Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip 175,000

Jordan 4.5 million 96% Sunni, 4% Christian 104,00

Kuwait 1.99 million 85% evenly mixed 15,000

Lebanon 3.5 million 70% 30% Christian 50,000

Libya 3.6 million 100% 100% Sunni 90,000

Oman 1.7 million 99% 74% Ibadite, 25% Sunni or Shia 43,000

Qatar 512,000 95% Mostly Sunni Wahhabi 10,000

Saudi Arabia 21.5 million 100% Sunni (90% Wahhabi) 162,000

Syria 17 million 75% Sunni, 10% Christian 320,000

United Arabs Emirates 2.8 million 98% 95% Sunni, 2%, Shia 3%, Hindus and Christians 51,000

Yemen 11.1 million 98% Sunni,Shia evenly mixed, 2% others including Christian 65,000

Sources:

Centcom: Overview of AOR, from the U.S. Department of Defense, Centcom Combatant Command Series (Centcom no longer publishes online), 1998
Library of Congress Country Studies, U.S. Libary of Congress.
MILNET: The Middle East, various MILNET sources including online and hardcopy from encyclopedia to periodicals
The Mideast in Depth, Associated Press Interactive, found on the Santa Cruz Country Sentinel AP wire site
Hamburg Suspects Linked to Saudi Diplomat, Peter Finn, The Washington Post, December 03, 2002
Various periodicals including:

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

milnet@milnet.com

Bahrain	Bahrain has been very cooperative in the U.S. led war on terrorism. In September, 2002, Bahrain turned over Mukhtar al-Bakri, alleged to be part of a Buffalo, N.Y. terrorist cell, 5 others in that cell were arrested on September 15, 2002. al-Bakri was extradited immediately and appeared in court in the U.S. on September 16, 2002. On November 22, 2002, Bahrain officials aided the U.S. in arresting senior Al-Qaeda Lieutenant Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri, allegedly has been behind a series of murderous attacks on American targets, including the October 2000 bombing of the destroyer USS Cole in Yemen. Recent election results showed that 12 secularists and nine Islamic candidates won seats, making the 40-seat legislature representative of the tiny kingdom's political spectrum. The two woman candidates (first in the country's history) lost. Bahrain also hosted the latest computer versus human chess match between Deep Fritz (Deep Blue derivative) and Vladmir Kramnik. The match ended in a 4-4 tie. ⁶
Egypt	Mubarak continues to condemn both Israel and Palestinians for continuing the violence. Also supported U.S. response to September 11th, however support has been muted now that the Taliban have been ejected. Has co-operated with financial seizures and controls, clamping down on charities thought to funnel funds to Al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations. Extremely outspoken against any military action against any of the Arab nations including Iraq and Iran. Extremely negative response to U.S. President George Bush's "Axis of Evil" remarks. Early in February 2002, Egypt won over $10 Billion in aid from nations and international institutions, with about $2 billion in immediate financial aid. However the remainder depends on transparent and acceptable money management practices. At the same time Egypt has voted with the OPEC oil cartel to reduce oil production thus forcing increases in oil prices worldwide. ⁶
Iran	"Iranian President Mohammad Khatami mounted an unusually strong attack on the U.S. government on Wednesday, accusing it of seeking a pretext to attack Iraq and of posing a danger to the whole world." This according to a December 4, 2002 article on Reuters Newswire. The A.P. Newswire reports " A hard-line group, best known for disrupting reformist gatherings and beating up students, declared a "holy war" Wednesday to rid Iran of reformers who promote Western democracy and challenge the country's supreme leader. Also, there have been many reports of Al Qaeda leaders being harbored in Iran, which of course the country denies. A Russian built nuclear reactor in Iran also has non-proliferation proponents on edge -- Iran burns more waste gas from natural oil well heads than could power the entire country yet they want a nuclear reactor -- and the reactor is of a type that can be used to breed weapons grade material. Some propose an Israeli like airborne attack on the plant. There is also strong evidence that Iran is aiding Islamic Militants fight the Kurds in Northern Iraq. At the same time, Iran claims to have turned over terrorist suspects to Saudi Arabia who then has given them over to U.S. ⁶ U.S. believes Iran is continuing to develop NBC weapons and remains under export controls. U.S. believes Iran would trade NBC weapons with terrorist organizations.
Iraq	A new U.N. resolution has inspectors returning to Iraq for the first time since December 1998, and a report on their WMD reserves and ballistic missiles is due from Iraq on December 8. Many believe the regime in Iraq is simply stalling for time, while the U.S. continues to build up forces for an attack. In a bizarre and surprising offer, Saddam Hussein, in November 2002, offered amnesty to Iraqis who fled their home country. And even more bizarre, many have taken up the offer and returned. ⁶ U.S. believes that Iraq is continuing to develop NBC weapons and remains under export controls. U.S. believes Iraq would trade NBC weapons with terrorist organizations.
Israel	The Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to escalate. After a large number of incursions and a huge debate over alleged war crimes, the Israeli government continues to respond to suicide bombings with ever increasing force. Meanwhile the conservative party in Israel led by Benjamin Netnahyu, former prime Minister and now Defense Minister, is thought to be primed to take over the government. There is little or no hope in sight for a resolution to the conflict. Iraq and Iran appear to be helping the more radical Palestinians as well as Hamas and Hezbollah. And of course Iraq threatens to pull Israel into any war started by a U.S. attack on Iraq. This time, however, Israel says they will not hold back. ⁶ Israel is known to have or is able to assemble rapidly a number of nuclear weapons however their constitution prohibits sale and only allows use in defense.
Jordan	Jordon is walking a tightrope, hoping not to anger their chief oil importer, Iraq, and their chief military/political ally, the United States. While publicly refusing to allow Jordanian bases for any operations against Iraq, they recently helped in a little saber rattling, cooperating in a huge military exercise with U.S. Forces along the Jordanian border. On Oct. 28, a gunman killed Laurence Foley, a U.S. aid agency official, outside his Amman home. Subsequently, U.S. authorized the departure of nonessential embassy personnel and dependents. The country continues, however, to import some $700 million in oil from Iraq and export some $242 million to the U.S. ⁶
Kuwait	Kuwait has emerged as a promising staging ground for future U.S. attacks on Iraq, however some Islamic militants in the country are making their displeasure known. Since the Gulf War, U.S. serviceman stationed in Kuwait have enjoyed, for the most part, local public support. However, as turmoil in the Middle East has increased over uncertainties about future U.S. actions, and Islamic fundamentalists have begun stirring up anti-American fervor, Kuwait has also become dangerous for U.S. serviceman. On November 22, 2002, two U.S. soldiers were attacked and seriously wounded by a Kuwaiti policeman. The situation has been pretty tense since that time. ⁶
Lebanon	November 21, 2002 - "A gunman today killed an American missionary at the clinic where she worked as a nurse, in what was described as the first targeted killing of a U.S. citizen in Lebanon in more than a decade..." reports the Washington Post. Like other Middle East countries, response to threats of a U.S. attack on Iraq have stirred Islamic extremists to action. Lebanon continues to foster radical Sunni muslims, and in this particular case, the events may have been triggered by a perception the missionaries the nurse worked with were trying to convert muslims to Christianity. And Hezbollah continues to supply Palestinian activists with "weapons for peace" as well as the occasional border incursion to attempt to distract Israel from the Palestinian attacks. Israelis living near the border continue to fear for their lives. Ten Lebanese Bedouins in the Israeli Army were arrested in October, accused of spying for Hezbollah according to an October 24, 2002 report from Reuters. Iraq's deputy prime minister Teriq Aziz met with Lebanese President Emile Lahoud, afterward taking a moment to declare his nation would be ready to respond to an American attack "within an hour." "We will confront these plans of aggression," he said. Israel is also quite upset over a pipeline diverting water from the Wazzani River in southern Lebanon, meant soon to siphon water for delivery to nearby hamlets and help the dry areas. Anti-Syrian dissidents living outside the region continue to call for Lebanese freedom from Syrian control with active PR through email and web pages. ⁶ MILNET believes Lebanon would purchase NBC weapons and supply them to terrorist organizations. MILNET also believes Lebanon is the source of weapons smuggled into Palestinian areas in Israel, including rockets, mortars and the explosives used by suicide bombers.
Libya	Recent U.N. actions with Libya defy believe. The U.N. human rights committee has decided to elect Moyamar Khadaffi to a high position on the council for human rights in what appears to be a quid-pro-quo for Libya's turning over Lockerbie suspects for trail in Italy. ⁶ Libya is thought to be continuing to develop NBC weapons and remains under export controls. MILNET believes Libya would supply NBC weapons to terrorist organizations.
Oman	"On November 28, 2002, Oman's Sultan Qaboos bin Said extended voting rights to all citizens 21 or over, in a move seen as a step toward wider political reform in the conservative state on the Arabian Sea. The sultan's decree, issued on Tuesday, ends restrictions that allowed only a quarter of the country's 1.8 million people, handpicked by the government, to take part in elections for the 83-member Consultative Shura Council. Voters" reports The Washington Post. The Foreign minister of Oman, Yusef Alawi Abdullah begrudgingly acknowleged the lead of the U.N. in requiring Iraq to disarm, and reluctantly agreed to follow the U.N. lead if it voted later to attack. He did stop short of endorsing U.S. action without approval of the U.N. ⁶
Qatar	A new U.S. base in Qatar is being enlarged and prepped for a U.S. led attack on Iraq. Surprisingly, Qatar is inhabited by almost 100% Wahhabi Muslims, typically educated by the most radical of the Islamic schools. So far, however, the government has bent over backwards to provide the U.S. with whatever it needs. ⁶
Saudi Arabia	Things haven't gone well for Saudi PR recently, with accusations of direct links to Al Qaeda members ranging from questionable donations from the Saudi Royal Family to a recent Washington Times Report -- "A raid on the apartment of an alleged member of the Hamburg [Germany] cell that led the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks turned up the business card of a diplomat from the embassy of Saudi Arabia in Berlin, and Saudi officials have not responded to German requests to explain how the defendant came to have the card" ⁵. This story broke following an unprecedented PR campaign by Saudi Arabia attempting to distance themselves from the terrorists. However, U.S. diplomats and the White House continue to stress the importance of the Saudi relationship in the middle east. ⁶
Syria	The U.S. has asked Syria to close the Damascus office of Islamic Jihad, a terrorist group linked to Al Qaeda. It is the latest in Syrian support for terrorists, amongst them Hamas and Hezbollah, who aid Islamic Jihad in Palestinian suicide as well as high powered weapons attacks on Israel. ⁶ MILNET believes Syria would purchase NBC weapons and supply them to terrorist organizations. MILNET believes Syria's control of the Lebanese government is key in the Lebanese support of Hezbollah and Hamas mortar, rifle, rocket and suicide bomber attacks on Israel.
United Arabs Emirate	A September 3, 2002 report on the front page of Washington Post claimed that gold shipments intended for Al Qaeda passed through UAE from Karachi, Sudan to the Sudan, creating a wave of UAE denials. ⁶
Yemen	Yemen continues to aid in finding terrorists, with several being rounded up in the last few months. A group of Al Qaeda leaders were killed by a CIA flown Predator firing a hellfire rocket. Some controversy over the action has arisen, predictably raising doubts of the legality of such action in a country not at War with the U.S. ⁶

Country	Population	% muslim	Faith mixture	Troop Strength
Bahrain	586,000	100%	Shia 68%,32% Sunni,	8,100
Egypt	67 million	94%	Mostly Sunni , 6% others including Christian	450,000
Iran	65.6 million	99%	Shia 89%, Sunni 10%	513,000
Iraq	22 million	97%	Shia 60%, Sunni 37%	387,000
Israel	6.4 million	14%	82% Jewish, includes 17,000 Druse Arabs in the Golan Heights and several million Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip	175,000
Jordan	4.5 million	96%	Sunni, 4% Christian	104,00
Kuwait	1.99 million	85%	evenly mixed	15,000
Lebanon	3.5 million	70%	30% Christian	50,000
Libya	3.6 million	100%	100% Sunni	90,000
Oman	1.7 million	99%	74% Ibadite, 25% Sunni or Shia	43,000
Qatar	512,000	95%	Mostly Sunni Wahhabi	10,000
Saudi Arabia	21.5 million	100%	Sunni (90% Wahhabi)	162,000
Syria	17 million	75%	Sunni, 10% Christian	320,000
United Arabs Emirates	2.8 million	98%	95% Sunni, 2%, Shia 3%, Hindus and Christians	51,000
Yemen	11.1 million	98%	Sunni,Shia evenly mixed, 2% others including Christian	65,000