MILNET Brief
Far East Asia Update, 2/8/2005

Far East Update, June 2002

MILNET presents the 2004 Far East Briefing, including a focus on events between June 2003 and December 2004.   One reason for doing so, of course, is the fact that a tsunami has literally changed the geographical face of Sri Lanka, Indonesia, India, Thailand and Malaysia, killing (early reports) tens of thousands, with the death toll climbing into the 100,000 as rescue and recovery efforts continue in January of 2005.  Suffices-to-say, much will change as the nations in the region struggle to put back together their lives.  Unfortunately, early evidence is that some things continue -- child abductions, arrogant political officials, you name it.  It all continues despite a world class need for aid and comfort.  For instance, many Americans were stunned when officials in the Indonesian government asked American Military personnel to make sure they were gone by March -- as if Indonesians were watching a U.S. military invasion. 

In any case, this update is necessarily based upon information dated prior to the AP newswire story that first laid out the disaster.  Sometime after the current situation stabilizes we will look back to see how and if the disaster made any changes in the geo-political situation in the region.

Previous looks at the region are found in the the 2002 Update originally published by MILNET and distributed worldwide by AFI.  This report includes all that was in that earlier report.  The geographical area of focus is defined by a circle beginning just east of India covering  Burma, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, as well as encompassing Southern China, the Koreas, Japan,  the Philippine Sea (an arc which includes Taiwan, Hong Kong between Japan and the Philippines), Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia, Sri Lanka and then back up to Burma.  In the past, this area has been called the Far East, or South East Asia (SEA).  It is bordered by Central Asia (countries we do not include such as India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, andsouthern Russia), China (which we include) and the Asian Pacific (countries we do not include such as Australia, Guinea, New Zealand), Tahiti, etc.)

In general the Far Eastern Asian countries went through major changes beginning during a particularly virulent Chinese expansionist period, with Korea first falling to pressure from expansionist Communist fomenting revolution in the region.  The split between North and South Korea would be followed almost ten years to the date by a similar split between North and South Vietnam.  In fact the two countries development toward the split are remarkably similar, probably by design -- the Chinese Communists intent upon creating revolutions where their particular brand of communism could flourish.  The fact that the U.S. considered some of these nations as strategic increased their importance to the Chinese, who felt that anything they did to counter American imperialism was not only justified but a duty.

The largest exception to the expansionist Chinese movement was Japan, who had become a stalwart ally of the U.S. after the U.S. occupation following World War II.  While many in Japan hated McArthur, most had to admit that his program of making the Japanese people self reliant and productive would soon lead to their emergence as a huge economic power despite their small area.

Following the Japanese example, South Korea, after a devastating war between North and South, began to repair  their half of the country and democracy took a very strong hold.  Soon Korea too began to emerge as an economic power.  However, the split continued to force South Korea to spend an inordinate amount on self defense forces arrayed to prevent a North Korean force from invading.

In contrast, Vietnam has never developed any strength as an economic contributor, and today remains a fledgling communist nation with no clear growth potential under its current government.  Recent years have been marked by requests for normalization and an emergence of an (all too typical in third world countries) textile industry.

The biggest changes have occurred in the Far East as a result of two major events, the advent of major attacks against westerners in Indonesia, and the Tsunami created by an under-ocean earthquake which devasted the lands surrounding the undersea event.  The long term effects of the Tsunami are expected to create both economic deppressions as well as a huge uptick in disease and famine as the small nations struggle to recover.  This despite an outpouring of relief from civilians and governments from around the world.

In this report, our nation-by-nation focus will start with Burma/Myanmar and then move around the circle and then into the center as described above, ending with the newly independent nation of East Timor.  We will look at four basic areas for each country:


Burma | Thailand | Laos | Vietnam | Cambodia | China/Hong Kong/Taiwan | South/North Korea
Japan | Philippines | Indonesia | Singapore | Malaysia | Sri Lanka | East Timor


 


Burma (Myanmar)   (map)

Recent Events | Terrorism

Perched on the eastern border of India's remote eastern province that sandwiches in Bangladesh, Burma is a former British protectorate.  The site may English battles with indigenous nomads and desert tribes, the country was finally granted independence in 1974.  However, military juntas have marked the history since then and the new constitution remains unfinished.  Presently the military holds power while the elected government is held incommunicado including nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.   Burma also goes by the name Myanmar.
The country labor force focuses agriculture 65%, industry 10%, services 25%, with exports of pulses and beans, prawns, fish, rice;  teak, and opiates. Imports are typical western manufactured goods such as machinery, transport equipment, construction materials, and of course food products.

The Burmese Army, Navy, Air Force is manned by men and woman above the age of 18, however current figures for the actual manpower on active duty is not available, with 10s of millions of men and women of an age appropriate for service.

Burma's national focus is occasionally interrupted by minor border disputes with Thailand, however the major problem is that Burma is the world's second largest opium producer (after Afghanistan whose production has dropped recently for obvious reasons).  Like other drug producing nations, Burma lacks the governmental strength (intestinal fortitude) to make the tough decisions to end the very prolific trade.  Money laundering and production of meth amphetamines are major drug trade byproducts.

Another major problem is tensions in Burma between Hindus and Muslims.  As one might expect given radical Muslim activities worldwide, the relatively peaceful Hindu population has reacted to Muslim intolerance to another religion in their midst.  Organized Islamic terrorist groups receive funds for outside sources including many believe Al-Qaida.

World pressure on Burma to release Aung San Suu Kyi have led to some small amount of freedom for her,  however the military rule has continued and her followers are harassed and occasionally are subject to beatings.  The number of followers is small enough that the military, so far has kept a fairly stable government, albeit cruel and oppressive.


According to a recent Reuters article on the Burma situation,
"Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) won Myanmar's last election in 1990 by a landslide,  but the military government refused to hand over power. Myanmar has faced international isolation and economic sanctions over its human rights record and its treatment of Suu Kyi and the NLD. "1
Key Recent Events in Burma:

Terrorist Groups Active in Burma

The terrorist groups active in Burma are:


 


Thailand  (map)

Recent Events | Terrorism

Thailand's modern history begins just before  World War II.  Thailand had never been conquered by a European nation -- the only Asian nation with distinction).  In 1932 a bloodless coup overturned the King of Siam (Thailand was called Siam until 1939) and a new constitutional monarchy was established.  During World War II, Thailand was an ally of Japan.  After the War, Thailand became an ally of the U.S. and has remained one since then.

The long vertical strip of land that is southern Thailand meets with Malaysia at the southern border, and shares a half of the long peninsula in the middle with Burma (west and north).  Laos also borders Thailand in the north and east,  as well as has a border along the southeast corner with Cambodia.

Thailand's  involvement in Eastern Asia includes its role as a base for U.S. activities during the ill fated war with Vietnam.  U.S. aircraft were based in Thailand and flew raids into South Vietnam, as well as featured clandestine raids against North Vietnamese using Laos as a path to move around ARVN (Army of Republic Vietnam regulars) on their way home from raids into the South.  Also, reconnaissance flights of U-2 and SR-71 aircraft originated from Thailand.

More recently, Thailand's economy went through rapid growth until mid 1995 when it had financial sector problems.  By 2000, the economy was in excellent recovery and a growth of 4%.  Thailand's economy is based on agriculture 54%, industry 15%, and services 31%. It's chief exports are computers and parts, textiles, and rice.  Thailand is a member of ASEAN, a trade organization in eastern Asia.

The Thai military consists of Royal Thai Army, Royal Thai Navy (includes Royal Thai Marine Corps), Royal Thai Air Force, Paramilitary Forces with some 580,000 men.

Sporadically, Thailand has disputes over borders with Burma, Cambodia and Laos, as parts are as of yet still undefined.  Drug manufacturing and narcotics agricultural cultivation remains a huge problem, with Thailand being a major Asian producer of the worst of the drugs such as heroin, opium, and meth amphetamines.  Drug use is also a domestic problem, as are sexual slave and human organ trafficking.  Another problem that Thailand has had to deal with are Sri Lankian refugees who continue to pour in as conditions in war torn Sri Lanka continue to deteriorate.

The economy, drug trafficking and the refugee situation are the major events that continues to plague Thailand.  Recent news stories are all on these topics.  Negotiations on ASEAN are one of the chief economic issues as well as remaining IMF requirements for improving the economic infrastructure. 

Recent Events In Thailand (June 2003 to December 2004)


Terrorist Groups Active in Thailand

As a result of years of Communist China's expansion and the tactic of fomenting revolution, as well as outside terrorist groups attacking other nations embassy's, there is a long history of unrest in Thailand.  However in most cases, recent terrorist activity comes from inside Thailand.  Recent events are simply more of the same.  The East Asia section of the 2000  Patterns of Global Terrorism report released annually cites one of these events:

"In January 2000, 10 armed Burmese dissidents linked to the takeover in 1999 of the Burmese Embassy in Bangkok -- took over the Ratchaburi provincial hospital. Thai security forces stormed the hospital and freed the victims. Although no hostages were injured during the assault, all the hostage takers were killed. Separately, Burma sentenced to death one terrorist involved in the 1999 Embassy takeover."
The terrorist elements active in Thailand are:
 


Laos   (map)

Recent Events | Terrorism

For centuries, Laos was ruled by a Monarch.  After World War II, the French became stewards  of the country, with the monarchy still existing until 1946 when it gained its independence.

During the Vietnam war, U.S. and allied troops were restricted from entering Laos, despite North Vietnamese using the Laos route to make end runs around troops that had cut off their escape into North Vietnam.  Laos jungle tribes were recruited to help and covert operators worked with these tribal groups to harass North Vietnamese.  Eventually, U.S. aircraft operating out of Thailand began covert strafing missions near the end of the war and U.S. pullout.

After the U.S. pullout, Communist forces began moves to consolidate all of Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam.  In 1975, the Communists took over the government of Laos.  An easing of foreign investment laws and encouragement of private investment began in the late 1990s and the country has joined ASEAN, an economic and trade organization.

The Laos economy, which has slowed since the regional financial problems in the mid 1990s,  is based upon wood products, garments, electricity, coffee, tin and its labor force is 80% agricultural with products consisting of sweet potatoes, vegetables, corn, coffee, sugarcane, tobacco, cotton; tea, peanuts, rice; water buffalo, pigs, cattle, and poultry.  Manufactured products such as machinery and other modern goods make up chief imports.

Laos chief problems lie in illicit drug crops, with Laos being the world's third largest opium grower.  On April 18, 300 appliance smugglers attacked a customs checkpoint on the border between Laos and Vietnam when they were stopped in their attempt to smuggle electric fans, rice cookers, freezers and TV sets across the border.

From time to time anti communist forces will attack military or government infrastructure, however, in order keep indigenous support, are careful to not target citizens and in fact on occasion have given warnings to ensure people have time to evacuate.  The government has deemed these anti-government forces as terrorists, but so far there is no world support for that assessment.
 

Terrorist Groups Thought to be Active in Laos


Key Recent Events in Laos





Cambodia  (map)

Recent Events | Terrorism

Harkening back to the relatively easy early days of Prince Norodom Sihanouk, set on the throne of Cambodia by the French after World War Two, Cambodia became an independent country in 1953.  Living in relative harmony for at least a few years since their independence, Cambodia became the target of Communists and by 1960 Pol Pot (aka  Soloth Sar) began a struggle to take over the country.  By 1968 this became an armed struggle as his Khmer Rouge began to terrorize the countryside,  followed immediately by involvement in the Vietnam War next door.  Lon Nol pushed out Prince Sihanouk, and forced the population of Cambodia into agricultural communes, totally redefining the social structure of the country.  All private property was seized and practically anyone with an education or willing to speak out were killed.  The Vietnamese war spilling into Cambodia didn't help and finally in 1979, the communist government of Vietnam took Phnom Penh, the capital. Pol Pot and his Khmer Rouge fled into the jungles.  Armed with weapons from China, a familiar tale in Asia unfolded as the communist guerillas began to flail away at the countries underpinnings, already weak and near collapse. As desperate as things looked, bidding his time was Sihanouk, as he watched his country in turmoil from abroad.

Finally, Prince Sihanouk, with help from the  Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) in 1982, who feared the spread of communism throughout Southeast Asia, established a new government which was later recognized by the United Nations as a peace accord was signed in October of 1991.  And in 1993, Sihanouk resumed the throne as king.  Eventually Pol Pot made his final mistake, and his Khmer Rouge split, eventually resulting in his death in April of 2000.  But not so his organization.  Sihanouk's son Prince Ranariddh was killed in a coup d'etat in 1997, led by Hun Sen, causing the U.S. to stop aid to Cambodia.

Today, tribunals are convening to prosecute remaining leaders of the Khmer Rouge, with some 1.7 million Cambodians thought to have been murdered by the organization's ministrations from 1975 to 1979 alone.  Many of these were city workers, bankers, and administrators dumped without training and resources into the countryside only to perish as they could not quickly adapt to becoming farmers, most dying from starvation.

Opposition party leader Sam Rainsey said on the 25th anniversary of the Khmer Rouge takeover, "The only way to exorcise the ghost of Pol Pot and to allow Cambodia to start developing on a new and sound basis is to establish an international and independent tribunal to prosecute the main Khmer Rouge leaders and  expose the truth..."

Key Recent Events in Cambodia


A terrorist group said to be active (as reported by the government of Prime Minister Hun Sen)  in the country today is the Cambodian Freedom Fighters, which consists of a few Cambodian Americans.  A well established and funded pro-communist faction retains a large influence in Cambodia and the pro government Democratic Front of Khmer Students and  Intellectuals provide the student demonstrations typical in today's Cambodia.  The President of Cambodia, Chia Sim, was a former sub commander in Pol Pot's Khmer Rouge but later become an anti-Pol Pot leader.  Some of the resistance leaders that overthrew Pol Pot and welcomed the Vietnamese Communist caretaker government are still in power, including the current Prime Minister, Hun Sen.


Terrorist Groups Thought to Be Active in Cambodia

The list of terrorist organizations thought to be active in Cambodia are:


 
 


Vietnam   (map)

Recent Events | Terrorism

n the late 1800s, France had occupied much of what is now Vietnam.  As a French protectorate and colony, the people of Vietnam, already used to being conquered by several of their neighbors and influenced by China for centuries quickly adapted.  By the 1900s few Vietnamese did not speak French.  French culture mixed with Asian culture produced a remarkably interesting blend especially considering Thai spices and French cooking.

A mix of Buddhist religious tenets and Christian missionaries also created a unique sub-culture, with clashing French morality and Christian Puritanism.  In the end, a raging wild side of Vietnam continued to clash with the secular side.  The result was government  graft and a large chasm between city life and the rural, with modern western ways clashing with the ox and cart lifestyles in the fields outside the cities.

Chinese communist influences created a wave of change moving from the North toward the South, and communist guerillas soon became a major threat to the French overseers and after a number of years of battling the insurgents the French government tired of the effort.  Ho Chi Minh, a stern communist task master established a government in the North and in 1954 the French were on the run.

At the same time, the U.S., having recovered sufficiently from a near disaster in Korea, began efforts to shore up governments all over South East Asia, in the fear that Communist culture would sweep through Asia and threaten allies in the region.

By the early 1960s as the French were moving out of South Vietnam, the U.S. was moving in advisors.  By the mid 1960s, the U.S. was fully involved in war and the considerable American military machine was drafting American boys and sending them to Vietnam at a prodigious rate.  The conflict, balancing political forces dead in the middle of the Cold War, turned even more political as Russian and Chinese advisors helped the North Vietnamese irregulars (Viet Cong) and regular forces.  The Viet Cong, a virulent guerilla force blended into the local villages North and South, becoming "part of the landscape" so to speak.  Using tunnels and buried weapons caches, the guerillas could pop up just about anywhere ready to conduct effective fire fights.  Even large cities such as the capital of the south, Saigon, were not immune.  Infiltrators working with local children killed and maimed soldiers and civilians alike with bombs and other typical insurgent activities.

Meanwhile, in the outlying areas, the Viet Cong began getting supplies, then arms down the "Ho Chi Minh" trail, a network of routes leading from North Vietnam down into South Vietnam.  U.S. ignored the trail for far too long and by the Tet Offensive in 1967, the amount of supplies and arms, as well as North Vietnam regular soldiers had become a critical mass, and led to decisive U.S. loses on the battlefield  by a fairly well organized and overpowering force.

While the U.S. might not feel they lost this battle -- it by no means removed U.S. effectiveness on the field -- it was a political disaster of huge proportion and it spelled the end.  The U.S. began an influx of troops and equipment to fight this newly armed foe and also began bombing across the border in an effort to bring the North Vietnamese to the bargaining table.  However, political pressure at home became a larger enemy and when President Nixon took office, it was clear that the U.S. government had lost its stomach for the war.

A cease fire agreement in 1973 allowed the U.S. to fully withdraw, and in 1975, the North overran the South, bringing Vietnam together under one communist regime.  For the next 10 years, Vietnam and its neighbors fell behind the Chinese section of the Iron Curtain or succumbed to insurgents and deadly political regimes.  Finally in 1985, the curtain opened a little as Vietnam began to stabilize under its slightly softer communist regime.

Today Vietnam is slowly opening the door to western markets, in classic third world efforts beginning with textiles.  Normalization of relations with the outside world has also begun, Vietnam's communist government softening even further in the light of the collapse of the Soviet Union.  Vietnam's agricultural products include paddy rice, corn, potatoes, rubber, soybeans, coffee, tea, bananas; poultry, pigs; and fish.  The major exports are crude oil, marine products, rice, coffee,       rubber, tea, garments, and shoes.  The labor force is focused agriculture 67%, industry and services 33% and imports match typical third world nations, especially those under a communist regime, importing modern world items such as  machinery and equipment, petroleum products, fertilizer, steel products, raw cotton, grain, cement, and (anyone whose been to Vietnam will nod in vigorous agreement), motorcycles.  However the major mode of transportation in Vietnam is a one speed bicycle, manufactured locally.

While a sensitive relationship exists between Vietnam and non-communist countries, it appears to be desirous of emerging onto the world's stage.  Accordingly, non-communist overtures to improve relations continues with the hope of change.

Vietnam has complained of some terrorist activities in the last five years.  However, none of the groups seem to be well organized and none have made it onto the U.S. terrorist lists.

Key Recent Events In Vietnam

Vietnam has begun to participate in negotiations to join ASEAN, a trade and economic aid organization.  They have also just recently offered to help find more evidence of the last days of MIAs from the Vietnam war.
 

Terrorist Groups Thought to be Active in Vietnam


 


China/Hong Kong/Taiwan  (map)

Recent Events in China | Recent Events in Taiwan | Recent Events in Hong Kong  | Chinese Nuclear Weapons

The Threat From China, a MILNET Brief, 1/21/2004

Everyone knows that mainland China and the small island offshore called Taiwan are a powder keg.  Unlike most of the countries profiled so far, this conflict is not at all about terrorists.  Staring at each other across the straight of Formosa, it is clear that Taiwan separatists have achieved what many thought impossible -- created a separatist movement, accomplished the separation and now are recognized as a major force in the world's economics.  With aid and support from the western world, primarily the U.S. (Taiwan's largest source of exports), Taiwan's place in the world would be secure if it weren't for the fact that the Chinese across the straight lust for the success and chafe at the thought of the little island nation's success.  Combined with China's penchant for continuing to modernize its military and push harder and harder at their successful and exceedingly more modern nuclear capability, only the India-Pakistan, or Israel-Arab situations are so fraught with danger.

From the perspective of the western world, the problem, of course, is with China's long history of a ruling elite that cares little about human rights or freedom for the common people. Many Chinese leaders have expressed their disdain for Taiwanese, calling them traitors. How dare common people attempt to rule themselves and even worse, how dare they establish a democracy? Unforgiveable.  Never a country with anything approaching democratic ideals, China is the strongest communist government left in the world.  With a large enough economy and land space to survive on its own with little trade, China has never-the-less realized they cannot be 100% isolationists.  And as much as it pains their socialist minds, this means adding profit centers and westernizing key trading areas.  With the lapse of the 100 year lease and return of Hong Kong, China gained an important port for that purpose.  Clearly the rest of the world may be able to use China's desire to become part of the trading party a motivation for reforms in human rights. Hopefully time will temper China's nasty tendencies which can accurately be characterized as arrogantly expansion-istic and attempting to foster socialist revolution in every nation around them.  Nations who have suffered from Chinese "help" in this respect are Korea and Vietname. Chinese support to Pakistan, Iraq, and Iran have fueled nuclear status for one (Iran), and possibly a second (Iraq). Clearly, China has been helping Iraq improve their radar systems, increasing performance against both conventional and stealth aircraft.

Remarkably, terrorist activity in China is not centered on the China/Taiwan issue, but more on the religious rights and resettlement of the Chinese Tibetan tribes and those supporting the Dali Lama.  China brooks no religious opposition, with the outlawing of the Fun Lung party the most recent of centuries of Chinese religious persecution.  As a fully totalitarian government news of terrorism does not escape, yet there are indications Tibetans continue to fight the Chinese using violent means.

China's human rights policies are dismal even for the 19th century, let alone the 20th or 21st.  Slave labor exists in vast numbers with western nations unfortunately not listening to those calling for a boycott of China's relatively inexpensive goods.  Militant U.S. citizens anxious to procure assault weapons in an outpouring of constitutional lust for home weaponry turned a blind eye to ammunition and weapons manufactured by slave labor.  Staunch humans rights activists still bought baby carriages or toys made in China with little western clamor over the trade goods peppered with slave produced products. Baby sales and perhaps human breeding body parts or rare human chemicals is an emerging market centered with "production" facilities in China.

And of course, the arrogant Chinese government with its "we do what we want" attitude in world politics defies the best hopes of liberal politicians who say engagement through economical means will help bring the Chinese into the civilized world.  All you have to do is wait long enough.

In the meantime, China's military budget as a percentage far exceeds any countries percentage today, and we are not talking small numbers.  China's military projects include the license of modern Russian MIG fighter production on the mainland, and use of state-of-the-art fiber optic links between sophisticated computer technologies.

Development of ballistic missiles continues at an alarming rate. Ballistic missiles threaten both in the conventional weapons manner as well as the nuclear.  Thus as China builds better, longer range, and more accurate delivery systems, it hardly bodes well for Taiwan.  If rumors of Chinese cruise missiles are true, then Taiwan is even more danger.  Chinese nuclear armed submarines already have the capability to take nuclear aggression to any spot on the globe.  Converting land launched cruise missiles to conventional, sub launched land attack weapons is almost trivial to a country able in developing military weapons systems as China.  In fact a cruise missile is probably more destabilizing than any further nuclear developments.  Additional missile deployment could be viewed as only significant in their ability to strike more targets at one time and before retaliation could take place.  Many of the cold war precepts still exist for western nations and their military defenders.  A recent cooperation pact with Russia does little to provide hope for leaders contemplating China's aggressive tendencies.

Another aspect to the China problem is the ferocious appetite the Chinese have for theft of trade and national level secrets. In fact, the U.S. FBI has profiled the Chinese methodology for getting information. MILNET covers this area in the Espionage Overview.

In 2001, a serious conflict between the U.S. and China occurred, when a U.S. Navy EP-3A surveillance aircraft was involved in a mid-air collision with a Chinese fighter aircraft.  The Chinese aircraft went into the sea, and the EP-3A, a four engine aircraft designed on the Lockheed Electra chassis (same as Navy P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft) crash landed on a Chinese controlled Island.  This led to detainment of the U.S. personnel and tense months while the U.S. tried to diplomatically secure the release of the aircraft and crew.

Eventually the crew was brought home, but the aircraft had to be dismantled in large pieces and shipped home because the Chinese would not allow it to be flown home for domestic political reasons.


Below we list the Chinese nuclear military arsenal, most capable of delivering conventional, chemical or biological weapons as well:
 
 

 
 
    
Name  Description  Count  Yield 
Strategic Nuclear Forces Controlled directly by the General Staff 100K
Dongfire 3A (Dong Feng) CSS-2 nuclear capable IRBM 50-100 3.3 MT
Dongfire 4  CSS-3 nuclear capable MRBM 10-20 3.3 MT
Dongfire 5A CSS-4 nuclear capable ICBM, deployed 1980 7-10 4-5 MT
Dong Feng 21A CSS-6 IRBM 36 2-300 KT
Dong Feng 31 ICBM ? 1-200 KT
Dong Feng 41 ICBM with MIRV ? MIRV
Xia-Class Submarine SSBN deployed 1981 4
Julang-1/CSS-N-3 1986 SLBM (1700 mi range) 12 300 KT
Julang-1/CSS-N-4 1990s SLBM (8000 mi range)  ? 200 KT
Hong-6 (B-6) long range bomber (3100 mi) 12 1-300 KT
Qian-5 (A-5) short range bomber (400 mi) 30 1 kt to 1 MT
Artillery/ADM/rockets Tactical nuclear weapons 120 1- 20 KT
Silos Armed and hardened Missile Silos intended to survive first strike ? -

There are rumors of Chinese terrorist activities on Mainland China, however, as China is a closed society there is no evidence publicly available to verify.

Recent Events in China


Taiwan

Taiwan: Developments and U.S. Policy Choices, CRS, 1/10/2005

From the introduction on the Republic of Taiwan web site:

"The Republic of China (ROC) is a sovereign state and a constitutional democracy that was founded by Dr. Sun Yat-sen in 1912.

During the first two decades of its existence, the ROC suffered from internal turmoil as warlords struggled for power against each other and the central government. In 1928, the nation was unified, after Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek in the Northern Expedition defeated the warlords. In 1931, however, the Japanese invaded the Chinese territory of Manchuria, and the Marco Polo Bridge Incident in Peking set off the Eighty ear War of Resistance against Japan in 1937.

Although Japan was defeated in 1945 by the Allied nations, the Republic of China was again threatened by the growing power of the Chinese Communists, who initiated a civil war. With the support of the Soviet Union, the Chinese Communists ultimately gained control of the Chinese mainland, forcing the ROC government to relocate to Taiwan in 1949."
Taiwan's constitution was created in January of 1947 and ratified on December 25, 1947.

As of June 1, 2001, Taiwan (ROC) maintained formal diplomatic relations with 28 nations and had 95 representative offices in 61 other countries. Taiwan is an active member of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum.  On January 31, 1995, Taiwan was admitted as an observer to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and will become member after domestic ratification procedures sometime in 2002.

Taiwan's economy is focused 2.06% Agriculture, 32.37% Industry, and 65.57% service industry (19% of which is commerce).  Agricultural crops are: rice, sugarcane, vegetables, corn, fruits, flowers, and tea, with livestock of hogs, poultry and dairy cattle.
 

Recent Events in Taiwan

Taiwan's impending purchase of ships and aircraft clearly is causing consternation in China.  However, since China continues to arm western adversaries such as Iraq and Iran, the U.S. nor other western Arms suppliers do not appear likely to take China's concerns to heart.  There will be little that will get in the way of further Taiwanese arms purchases other than certain commitments made which the U.S. Congress is watching before it approves of the sales.

There are no terrorist activities in Taiwan, but some political but non-violent unrest with loyalists to Mainland China presenting challenges during each election.
 

Hong Kong

Hong Kong is a large economic and westernized center of commerce on and island off the coast of China.  For many years it was a protectorate and trading colony of Britain, but on a 100 year lease from China.  When the lease expired in the 1990s, it reverted to Chinese rule.  China has tried not to interfere in the booming Hong Kong profit center.

Hong Kong people speak British accented English or one of the Chinese dialects.  Business in Hong Kong is in the billions of dollars, U.S. equivalent.  The city houses all types of businesses from home and business electronics to textiles and food products.

The economy has a very low unemployment rate of 2.54% up from 1.94% in 2001.

Recent Events In Hong Kong


 


South Korea   (map)  /  North Korea   (map)

Recent Events | Terrorism

North Korean Nuclear Chronology, MILNET Brief, September 2004

The conflict between South and North Korea is probably familiar to most reading this report.  With a war in the mid 1950s that at times threatened to engulf the world in a new World War, with China and Russia facing off the U.S. and the United Nations who were doing there best to keep Communist expansion from over-running the small nation of South Korea.

Today a tense no-man's land lies between the divided country, with a rabid communist regime in the North fighting their internal struggles including famine, and a frankly frightened government in the South facing their own domestic economic strife.

North Korea

North Korea has hinted at the nuclear card, implying they are only a few years (if not months) away from having the components to producing nuclear weapons.  This and their purchases of components and nuclear power facilities that have dual use, have forced the non-proliferation treaty signees, led by the U.S. to put pressure on the North to cease and desist. While fiction writers have predicted and spelled out in great details various schemes for a Northern attack on the South, since the war ended, there has been no major attack in either direction across the DMZ.

Decades of nationalistic rhetoric have provided a war of words as well as anxious allies since the two countries agreed to the demilitarized zone between North and South, but have provided few opportunities to resolve the differences.

North Korea today remains one of the last holdout communist nations, practicing a socialist agenda with a very Soviet like government.  It is one of the few cases where we can't find a reason for the conflict based upon culture, language or borders.  Pure politics are at play here with a democratic nation in the South and a socialist-commnist country in the North.

As a closed nation, little is known about popular dissent or terrorism that takes place in Korea, since anything negative reported by the state run media is immediately attributed to illegal South Korean dissident criminals and murders.

The current North Korean regime is facing food shortages admits rising costs to keep the military functional, and conditions in the country appear to be mirroring those of the last days of the Soviet Union.  Indeed, as South Korea keeps up the pressure, it appears North Korea is headed for popular revolt as basic living requirements for the people will eventually force the government to collapse.

The western world, however, is concerned that the government of North Korea, never known for its maturity and better known for ruthless disregard for life, may choose to go out in a blaze of glory.  With the possibility they may have a  few nuclear weapons or at least the capability to deliver dirty weapons, the concern is for the welfare of South Korea in that eventuality.

South Korea

In the Korea before the Korean War, the deliberate use of violence, including occasional assassination, to express or advance political goals was common among both the right and the left in  Korea after liberation in 1945 and up to the outbreak of the Korean War in June 1950.

Subsequent political violence up to the 1980s, apart from exchanges between police and participants in political demonstrations or rallies, was largely limited to the illegal government use of violence or the threat of violence to suppress dissent and intimidate political opponents. During the presidency of Syngman Rhee (1948-60), for example, the government mobilized the anti-Communist Youth League and members of street gangs to smash facilities of critical newspapers and intimidate opposition candidates for election (see The Syngman Rhee Era, 1946-60 , ch. 1).

The Park government continued illegal police practices, including torture of some dissidents, intellectuals, and even members of the National Assembly, and was often indirectly involved in violence. The Korean Central Intelligence Agency (KCIA) also used various means, including physical threats, to intimidate South Korean journalists in the United States. Such methods continued under Chun, occasionally resulting in the deaths of political defendants under police torture. Police were passively present while hired thugs broke up dissident religious services or union meetings. Under Roh Tae Woo, police handling of political suspects retained some of the illegal violence of earlier times, although improved media freedom also meant greater scrutiny of police misconduct. In contrast with earlier regimes, however, the Roh government permitted prosecution and conviction of police officers and even of military personnel in several cases involving violence during its first year in office.

Public violence against government institutions was rare from the 1950s through the early 1980s. When students overthrew the Syngman Rhee government in April 1960, mobs destroyed the headquarters of Rhee's anti-Communist Youth League. More spontaneous forms of violence often occurred during student protest rallies in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, when small numbers of rock throwing students at the edges of large rallies clashed with club wielding riot police, or security forces dispatched martial arts experts and plainclothes officers to beat or arrest demonstrators. Students also occasionally beat up police informants or plainclothes officers. This pattern changed following the killings of students and other demonstrators in Kwangju in May 1980.

The Kwangju incident permanently stained the legitimacy of the Chun government for subsequent generations of student activists, many of whom also blamed the United States for what they believed to be its supportive role. The use of Molotov cocktails by some elements among student demonstrators, both as a counter to increasingly effective police use of tear gas and as a reflection of increased militancy, became a feature of student demonstrations during the 1980s.

In 1988, under the general guidance of the National Association of University Student Councils (Chondaehyop) or the Seoul Area Federation of Student Councils (Soch'ongnyon), small groups of students armed with Molotov cocktails, metal pipes, and occasionally tear gas grenades or improvised incendiary or explosive devices, staged more than two dozen raids on United States diplomatic and military facilities. Students also conducted a similar number of attacks against offices of the government and ruling party and the suburban Seoul residence of former President Chun.

Key Recent Events in the Koreas

The South continues to expend huge sums on their military budget, hoping to keep up the pressure on North Korea.  The strategy appears to be working as North Korea, paranoid as ever continues to chew up resources needed to keep the government and people functional.  When President George Bush added North Korea to his list of nations part of the "Axis of Evil" many countries complained and the media went berserk with cat calls.  However, within a month, North Korea began making preparations for talks and announced their willingness to discuss the future of the two nations.

South Korea is in negotiations to buy several new ships and aircraft for its military, and this, as usual has brought on harsh criticism from the North.

The following are other recent events: