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China's Missile Program - A threat to World Peace?

 
China is making huge strides in developing advanced missile systems, and allied to a determined effort to create an advanced hi-tech electronic warfare capability both by importing from friendly nations such Israel and Russia, and the aggressive activities of its Intelligence services in targeting sophisticated US facilities.
 
Chinese Air Defences are being upgraded with advanced Russian SA-17, now produced under licence as the HQ-16 and the SA-15 which will enter service by 2004 as the HQ-17.

Of far greater significance are some 200 Russian SA-10 or HQ-10/15 capable of engaging multiple targets and with a limited capability against cruise missiles and tactical systems.
 
The acquisition of Russian SA-12 or HQ-18 'state-of-the-art' mobile surface-to-air missile system however, will give the Chinese a genuine Anti-Ballistic Missile capability and it is now in service along with the advanced BILL BOARD surveillance radar and GRILL PAN guidance systems.
 
A considerable improvement in missile capability is now taking place within the Chinese Navy, these include a new long-range enhanced torpedo and several advanced missile systems. The entry into service of the Russian SS-N-22 Sunburn anti-ship cruise missile, capable of a speed of 2.5mach over a range of 100 km is significant, particularly as it has a reported target closing speed, its terminal phase, as high as 4.5 mach.
 
This would make it extremely difficult for most gun or missile based point defence systems to intercept the SS-N-22,  therefore rendering current US and Allied Ship defences ineffective with dramatic consequences for the deployment of the main US Navy Strike Force, its mighty, and usually unchallengeable Carrier Groups, in the event of a conflict with China.
 
New Ballistic Missile systems are steadily being added to China's already not inconsiderable Nuclear Arsenal. In addition, the Dong Feng DF-15, an important IRBM (Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile) has been upgraded, this missile system having recently had its accuracy improved with the integration of a GPS or Global Positioning System. Some 300 DF-15 are already deployed oppositeTaiwan with another 50 or so being added each year.
 
The 100 or so Dong Feng DF-21 IRBM may now have a new radar based terminal guidance system similar to that used in the highly accurate US Pershing-11 system, destroyed under the Intermediate Nuclear Force Treaty in 1987. This would considerably improve the systems accuracy giving it a CEP(Circular Error Probability) of as little as 10m and an ability to 'take-out' highly sensitive command and control facilities in Taiwan.
 
However, of far greater significance is the development of China's Strategic Nuclear Missile Force. The Dong Feng DF-31, is a 7,500 km ICBM  that can hit any city within the western & north-western United States, the missile can carry a massive 2.5 megaton (equivalent to 2,500,000 ton's of TNT) warhead or an MRV 'bus' with three 90 kt warheads. Great efforts are being made to perfect an MIRV or multiple independently targeted re-entry vehicles to greatly enhance its ability to penetrate future US 'Star Wars' style anti-ballistic missile defences.
 
A naval version of the DF-31, the Julang-2, an SLBM or Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile also with a range of 7,500 km will probably be deployed at sea by 2004 on the Type-094 nuclear powered SSBN submarines.
 
Further ICBM systems are under development, including the DF-41 an ICBM with a reported range of 12,000 km thus threatening much of the developed world by bringing it within range of China's Strategic Nuclear Force.
 
The world faces the growing military power of China, a nation that is determined to gain the influence of a superpower. And a nation that already has a minimum of 15 nuclear armed ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missiles) aimed at the very heart of the United States!
 
 
For in-depth analysis and expert commentary on the Chinese armed forces and its nuclear and conventional weapons contact AFI

 


AFI at afi@supanet.com or telephone/fax +44(0)1626 33 50 40

Associates: Richard Bennett (AFI-UK), Dr James Hawker (Consultant-UK),
Robert Zeidner (Consultant-USA), Michael Crawford (MILNET-USA)
and Ms Kate Bennett (Researcher-UK)
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