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Turkey - increasingly unsure of its future role
 
Turkey is beginning to feel the pressure of its unique position at the crossroads of a concerned Europe and increasingly unstable Middle East and South Asia and while the legacy of the largely secular state created by Kemal Ataturk in 1923 still survives, the Turkey of today is pray to Muslim sensibilities to a far greater extent. Some 97% of Turks are Muslims and though most would still accept  membership of NATO as vital to their future security, an increasing number of Turks are less certain than their Government in their support for the US-led coalition against terrorism, particularly as the war intensifies and civilian casualties mount.

The Turkish Government opened its airspace and provided bases to US forces on the very day the Pentagon requested them following the terrorist attacks on the 11th September and is co-operating fully with the counter-terrorist campaign including having a special liaison team based in the US and MIT, the Turkish Intelligence Service has added its considerable experience of Middle East extremist movements to that of the CIA.

However, it was the decision by the Turkish parliament to authorize Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit to deploy units of the Turkish Armed Forces for operations outside Turkish national territory that caused concern amongst the media and the population at large to markedly increase in recent weeks. While it would be true to say that there is little real anti-US sentiment compared to Pakistan or Iran, many Turks have an uneasy feeling that the air attacks on Afghanistan are unjust and that, as with the Gulf War of 1991 when Turkey suffered economically after it had offered the Allies its full support, they are likely to gain little from a repeat performance.

The economic consequences of supporting the US

Iraq had been one of Turkey's major trading partners, and most of Iraq's oil passed through Turkish territory on its way to the international markets. The loss of these oil revenues alone cost about $400 million a year, and conservative estimates put the cost of the war to the Turkish economy at about $9 billion. In the years following the war, Turkey has also had to absorb upto 700,000 Kurdish refugees from northern Iraq placing a further burden on an already overstretched budget..  Turkey has already been hard hit by the downturn in the worlds economy, with inflation rates heading for 70% and the Turkish lira having lost 60% of its value against the US dollar

Most Turks probably understand US feelings of revulsion in the wake of the September attacks only too well. Following a 15-year long internal terrorist campaign against the Kurdistan Workers Party which caused the deaths of over 45,000, there is little public sympathy for terrorism. However, many Turks will await with interest to see just how much their nation is actually valued for its support and the vital geo-strategic position it fills.

Turkey will expect a seat at the top-table for once again stepping out of line with the Muslim world to support its US allies and a considerable increase in both economic and military aid. Otherwise many Turks would probably back a re-alignment in Turkish national policy which could well see Ankara distancing itself from the pro-Western stance it has held for over 50 years.

INSIGHT

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