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As analysts watch, another government in the Middle East appears to be going instable.  No not your typical Islamic Extermist Country, but stout and stable Saudi Arabia.  So what is going on over there and should we be surprised.

Saudis Heading For Trouble?

An alarming sound is coming out of Saudi Arabia recently.  It is the sound of a government in trouble.  From a sudden distancing of themselves from the U.S. led War on Terrorism, a coalition one would have thought appealed to the Saudis in a big way, to the Royal family suddenly coming down hard on any dissension in the vast oil rich country.

What has precipitated this strange circumstance.  Some believe it is purely political -- Saudis don't want to appear to be American toady's, supporting the bombing of Afghanistan.  Some believe it is financial -- perhaps there are some Osama Bin Laden, Al-Qaida connections in Saudi-land that threaten the Royal family.  After all look at Osama Bin Laden's history and you find LOTS of Saudi content.

Or maybe its the current oil price debacle with Russia screwing up the works for the cabel--oops sorry, cartel by undercutting the world's oil prices with their huge reserves.

You see, suddenly the Saudis are at risk in a number of areas.  First they are (or are concerned that they might) losing face with other Muslim nations over the last few decades by being friends to the West and allowing more and more western evils into their laws and treatment of woman.  Why Sauid is almost as civilized as the U.S. in many ways.This must make life difficult with their more Islamic bent.

Second, there may be some guilt at work here...the Saudis spawned Bin Laden.  A lion share of the money he has used for terrorist activities appear to have been first banked in Saudi before heading off to paymasters around the world.

As we mentioned earlier, the Russians have thrown a wrench in the over-control, nearly energy blackmail of the Middle East Oil cartel it may simply be that a loss of fortunes is in the works with the price of crude dropping.  Or maybe the Saudis are feeling the pressure of other Muslim nations in the Anti-Terror Coalition -- perhaps they are a little ashamed that they waffleed.

What IS clear is that one of our allies has not been acting  like one lately, and in fact has helped keep oil prices up on occassion, making their money raked in from oil more important than a long term good relationship with the West.  Many suspect the Saudis have been laughing at the West for years over the oil game. Our so called friend has preached temperance and moderation in oil price discussions in the cartel and when the prices kept rising they continued to reap the benefits of their inabilty to control their neighbors greed.

And both politically and militarily, the Royal family's walk along the fne line between friend and hinderance has been recognized by even the densest of journalist out there.  This all makes us analysts worry that the Saudis have succumbed to a new form of fear or greed.  Whichever it is, the Saudis have dropped in esteem amongst her former friends and may very well find themselves with few Western freinds.

© Copyright 2001, Michael Crawford - MILNET

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