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Pressure Grows on Sharon to get tough

Not surprisingly Israeli hard-liners have once again called for the removal of Yasser Arafat as Palestinian leader following the spate of suicide bombings over the weekend.  Prime Minister Ariel Sharon after his meeting with George W Bush, promptly cut short his visit, returning to Israel to discuss with his cabinet and military chiefs the options for a response to what he described as"horrific acts of murder". There followed a predictable barrage of international condemnation led by the US President who urged that the Palestinian leader "must do everything in his power to find those who murdered innocent Israelis and bring them to justice". In an equally predictable response Arafat has ordered that dozens of Islamic militants are arrested and promised harsh measures, but stopping well short of effective action.

Israel remains deeply unconvinced that Arafat will crack down on Islamic militants at a time when it is rumoured that his own power base is under such threat that he has recently turned to Hamas and Hizbollah for support. So in the light of growing doubt about Arafats long-term survival, Israel may now consider action which may hasten his departure as rather more acceptable.

Hot pursuit, temporary re-occupation of Palestinian Authority cities and the widespread destruction of Arab property is no more effective than the deaths of hundreds of Palestinians in reigning in the militants. It must now be perfectly obvious to the Israeli leadership that while Iraq continues to supply weapons to Hamas often via Jordan, arms purchased in Europe arrive in the Gaza Strip after transport though Egypt and most importantly the critical support for the Iranian backed Hizbollah given by Syria, any military action that is confined to Gaza and the West Bank is akin to treating the symptoms, but not the disease.

Negotiations stalled - military action the only viable option?

In the absence of an acceptable political settlement between Israel and the Palestinians, the intifada which has cost ten times as many Palestinians their lives as Israelis is set to worsen. In the present heightened anti-terrorist atmosphere following the 11th September it is less likely that the US will seek to tightly restrict Israel's military response this time. Most Palestinians following over 50 years of occupation of their homeland feel there is little to lose in further provocation, while a frustrated and frightened Israel feels the need to lash out and punish the increasingly effective Islamic terrorist groups and their backers.

Though Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hizbollah are usually blamed for terrorist outrages in the region, the present series of attacks owe much to a link with Al Qaida. Indeed, Osama Bin-Ladens spokesmen threatened that their next series of actions would be directed against Israel and AFI also highlighted the connection between Iran's proxy militants Hizbollah and international terrorism nine days before the attacks on New York and Washington.

There can be little doubt that Hizbollah were involved with Al Qaida and its offshoot Al Saiqa in the terrorist assault on the United States in September, but for reasons of political expediency both the British Government and at least temporarily, the Bush administration have chosen to ignore Iran's role in return for its support in the Afghanistan campaign.

However, Washington has a long memory of the terrorist attacks launched by Shi'ite terrorists, forerunners of Hizbollah, against US Marine facilities in Beirut in the 1980s and many other attacks since. Such actions were often planned and conducted by one of the main Hizbollah leaders Imad Mughniyeh, a close associate of Osama Bin-Laden. Hizbollah are a target for the United States and by default both Iran and Syria must end up as similar targets if this much vaunted War on Terrorism is to stand any chance of success.

Washington may now believe the time is right to finally let Israel off the leash.

Richard M. Bennett

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