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Ominous build-up of Pakistan forces on Indian border
 
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has further raised the regional temperature when he said on Saturday that India's decision to recall its High Commissioner from Pakistan and sever transportation links with his country was "very arrogant" and by his large scale movements of military units towards India.
 
The Pakistan Army build-up along the international border and the 'line of control' is now as obvious as it is threatening and Indian intelligence sources have felt it necessary to release the positions of major Pakistani units threatening Indian positions along the border. The overt massing of troops largely went un-noticed for some time as it was cleverly covered
by Pakistan not withdrawing its combat troops from the Chenab-Jhelum Corridor after their annual military exercise,
Operation Khabardar, in October.

 The Pakistan military refer to this corridor as the 'war training area' and combat units are deployed in force here. It is from this sensitive region that Pakistan chose to launch 'Operation Gibralter' which escalated into the War of 1965.
The Pakistan Chiefs of Staff deployed further front-line units to the area after the December 15th terrorist attack on the New Delhi Parliament buildings.  These enhanced levels of infantry and armoured deployment in the vicinity of the border was last seen during the Kargil War and are taken very seriously by the Indian military and intelligence services.
Suspicions have been raised that Pakistan is gambling on raising the stakes over Kashmir at a time when they believe US pressure would be brought to bear to prevent an effective Indian military response

The new deployments comprise twelve brigades of the 30th (Gujranwala) and 4th (Okhra) Corps in the Chenab-Jhelum Corridor and this particular force can threaten the  Indian positions south of the Haji Pir Pass, including Jammu, Chicken Neck and the Shakargarh Bulge. The 19th Armoured Brigade has taken up forward positions along with the 30th Corps formation while a number of Special Forces Battalions have also been deployed for commando operations along the Jammu-Rajouri sector. The Indian Chiefs of Staff are likely to take such deployments as a preparation for war, particularly when taken in conjunction with the movement and reinforcement by additional artillery battalions, of a further two divisions of the 10th (Rawalpindi) Corps towards the Uri sector.
 
Massive Pakistan build-up
 
The build-up continues across the Punjab and Rajasthan sectors with four brigades of the 31st (Bahawalpur) Corps moving into forward positions along the Bahawalpur-Fort Abbas stretch. Here too an Independent Armoured Brigade has been deployed in the Old Beas area to support the local infantry units. Five brigades of 5th (Karachi) Corps have moved up to the border stretch south of Fort Abbas to Gadra Road and Darwaza, and areas opposite the Jaisalmer, Bikaner and Barmer forward areas. In all a massive movement of Pakistan's Army and not likely to be undertaken unless there is a real expectation of open conflict with India.

Intelligence information also reveals the forward movement of elements of the Pakistan Army's strike formations, which are trained and equipped for mobile offensive operation deep into India.  These comprise the Army Reserves, North and South, which include 1st Corps headquartered at Mangla along with a significant armoured element of the strike force.
 
When asked if India should exercise the same right of self defence as the US or Israel, Secretary of State Colin
Powell said that India did have the right to self defence but that it should exercise restraint. However there is one exceptional difference, unlike the US which had overwhelming superiority over the Taliban or Israel which had overwhelming superiority over Hamas and the Palestinians, India does not have a similar advantage. While it can win the war it will be at enormous cost.
 
India therefore needs to calculate carefully the consequences of its actions before it responds to terrorist provocation's and Pakistan's military build-up. It is likely however that it will be forced into a situation in which it will have no alternative. It will be interesting to see if the United States demands of its ally, Pakistan that it crack down hard and quickly on the pro Bin-Laden Muslim terrorists in Kashmir and urges restraint on General Musharref and an end to the present sabre-rattling tactics.
 
Richard M. Bennett, Sharad Bailur and ZIL.
 

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