IMPORTANT INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING FROM AFI RESEARCH & INTELLECOM. INC
 
 
China stirs the pot
 
In late December 2001 President Pervez Musharraf was briefed by the Pakistani Armed Forces General Staff on the current military options.  According to normally reliable sources the Pakistani Army intends to keep the conflict conventional by conducting deep penetration strikes to the rear of Indian's military forward areas of operations and following these up with a massive attack through the Rajasthan Desert.  Though this is considered the most feasible military option by most of the Pakistani Military hierarchy, the international political and possible military fallout would be too severe for Pakistan to suffer if it involved a first strike against India, and General Musharraf knows this. Therefore he has sought to widen his choice of allies now that the USA is privately perceived as a hostile neutral by Islamabad and at worse a ally of India.  It came as no great surprise that President Musharraf met in private with General Secretary of the Peoples Republic of China Jiang Zemin during the South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation (SAARC) summit in Kathmandu, Nepal.
 
After the meeting it was reported that The PRC would assist Pakistan in any manner necessary with General Secretary Jiang Zemin being quoted in the Chinese State press saying "Pakistan is a neighbour who China is allied with militarily and politically and we will assist in its common defence."  There are also unconfirmed reports that even as US Secretary of State Colin Powell was visiting the Indian subcontinent in an attempt to lessen the risk of a major conflict between India and Pakistan, Jiang Zemin had requested that the Central Military Commission(CMC) reinforce the ten regional divisions with a commitment of fifteen PLA divisions to the Pakistani-Afghanistan-Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan-Indian border areas. This is now to be increased again with another twelve PLA Category-B reserve motorized infantry divisions.  The CMC has also apparently planned to deploy these units along the Chinese-Indian, the Chinese-Bhutan border and the Chinese-Nepalese borders.

The CMC had also further suggested to General Secretary Jiang Zemin that the PLA should prepare to move six out of these twelve divisions into Myanmar if necessary. There are two base areas for major Chinese units supporting and training the Myanmar Army just inside the Myanmar border. Myanmar is vitally important for China's projection of military power in its southward movement into the Indian ocean. As long ago as 1994 China leased the Coco Islands and established a strategically important Naval maritime reconnaissance and surveillance facility on Great Coco Island in the Bay of Bengal some 180 miles south off the coast and is the most important Chinese SIGINT installation in Myanmar. The location is ideal for monitoring naval and missile launch facilities in the Indian controlled Andaman and Nicobar Islands to the south and the movements of the Indian Navy and United States Carrier Task Forces at a crucial point on the sea lanes between the Bay of Bengal and the Straits of Malacca
 
Myanmar is a major Chinese intelligence asset
 
Myanmar has also granted China access to other sites, including Sittwe in Western Arakan State, for the construction of intelligence collection facilities. In addition during 1994 Chinese technicians built a series of small SIGINT stations along the Myanmar coast, providing overlapping coverage of the Bay of Bengal and Strait of Malacca. Zedetkyi Kyun or St Matthew's island off the Tenasserim coast in the southeast is especially sensitive because it is located off the coast of Myanmar's southernmost tip at Kawthaung or Victoria Point and allows surveillance of the northern entrance to the Straits of Malacca.
 
General Secretary Jiang Zemin has reportedly asked Myanmar's ruling General Than Shwe and the Myanmar Armed Forces Security Council to allow an increase in the PLA troop presence that has been stationed inside of Myanmar since 1995. Reports state that these PLA 'training units' are the size of two understrength motorized rifled divisions and have been preparing for movement toward the Indian-Myanmar border. The Chinese have asked the Myanmar Armed Forces Security Council to allow another six divisions to pass through and be stationed in their territory temporally and that aviation elements and warships be allowed to make use of airfields and port facilities..

The Government in Rangoon are still very ambivalent toward this Chinese request as they have already been made aware of Washington's displeasure at any chance of Myanmar 'aiding' a joint Pakistan-Chinese threat to India. The price that Than Shwe will demand from Bejing is the complete rebuilding and re-equipment of his armed forces is likely to be met, for if China seriously intends to squeeze India from all sides it needs the co-operation of Rangoon.  China has much to gain from a greater military presence in the Indian Ocean area, notably the outflanking of Indian Defences, placing Pakistan firmly in Bejings 'pocket',  balancing the United States military movement into Central Asia and providing a permanent Chinese Naval and Air Force capability within striking distance of Malaysia, Singapore and an increasingly troubled Indonesia.
 
China vies with US for influence
 
There is little doubt that General Secretary Jiang Zemin does not want war with India, but an increased threat would certainly cause New Delhi huge military problems and may indeed cast doubts on the value of developing too close a relationship with Washington. New Delhi can have little confidence that the United States would willingly become deeply involved in a major regional war against both Pakistan and China.  If Jiang Zemin's use of diplomacy backed by its military works, then China will successfully block Washington's aim of creating a secure strategic backyard for its future operations in the Horn of Africa and the Middle East. China has no intention of allowing the United States to hijack its position as the future regional superpower and the economic opportunities this offered Beijing. China too, would like to be the effective diplomatic 'magister' of the area and create a network of new treaties involving Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar and China.
 
Just how India and indeed the United States will react to this potential challenge is unclear, but it may have already gained Pakistan valuable time to prepare. However the next two or three weeks could now prove to be crucial, particularly as the United States may find that its campaigns in Somalia, Philippines and the Yemen will have to start long before Afghanistan has been done and dusted. Washington is also having to face the prospect that the numbers of potential enemies is constantly growing. Hezbollah, Arafat, Syria, Iraq and Iran, with traditional allies such as Saudi Arabia backing away from providing vital support.  The threat of a major regional war in the sub-continent involving China would be most unwelcome in the Whitehouse and give President Bush much more than a pretzel to choke on.
 
Richard M. Bennett  &  John G. Habenstein.
 
 
 

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