Where does Arafat go from here?
 
Even Arafat's closest colleagues are unsure whether he is a Palestinian patriot or a quisling. In fact he has been in the pay of his CIA masters for so long he probably doesn't know either.  Whatever his past usefulness has been to Washington it appears that it has now finally run out and Prime Minister Sharon may be allowed to either 'eliminate' him, twenty years too late according to the Israeli leader or force him into a lonely exile. There would be little chance of Arafat rebuilding a powerful new PLO abroad as those Arab nations closest to Israel have little interest in offering sanctuary to an expensive failure and most other Arab nations value American aid over Pan-Arabic solidarity.
 
Israel hopes to impose a compliant collaborationist post-Arafat Palestinian regime that plays dead when ordered by its masters in Jerusalem. Sharon has been given the go ahead by the Bush administration to remove all semblance of Palestinian independence negotiated under the Oslo agreement and any real chance of a Palestinian homeland after 55 years of Israeli military occupation has now vanished. The Palestinians are left with nothing but becoming vassals of Israel or suicidal terrorism. Sharon is likely to find that in the long run his policies will condemn thousands of his own people to be killed by Islamic bombs and bullets, as a new generation of young Palestinians have little left but the sacrifice of the Jihad.
 
Real politik - Middle Eastern Style
 
In an amazing act of well-considered betrayal, Egypt has finally abandoned any semblance of being an true Arab State and thrown its lot in with the United States, Israel and Turkey against the new alliance building between Syria, Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia.  President Mohammed Hosni Mubarrak, after unsuccessfully playing the China card, was bluntly told by Washington that continuing economic aid and the strengthening of his armed forces depended on his willingness to follow the American script. Mubarrak very quickly fell into line, dispelling any remaining misplaced thoughts that he shared Colonel Nasser's vision of the Middle East.
 
However, Egypt is vital to the United States strategic planning for a long-term military presence in the region. The control of the Suez canal, the access to the Red Sea, air bases in the Sinai bring US airpower crucially close to support Jordan and Israel. With the US air bases in Turkey, the Central Asia Republics and Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, Washington's military power can be projected throughout the Middle East on a permanent basis, placing less reliance on expensive and possibly vulnerable Carrier Task Forces.
 
The unspoken United States agenda is to ensure control of a volatile and hostile region rich in a diminishing but critically important resource, oil. The niceties of religious or ethnic sensibilities will not be allowed to interfere with the reality that the West needs a secure supply and that only the United States and its allies can guarantee that security. Mubarrak has seen the light and understands the future. Egypt along with Israel, Turkey and to a lesser extent India all have an important part to play in Washington's plans, they also have the same Islamic enemies.  Whatever the future may bring to a troubled region it is unlikely to bring any good news for Chairman Arafat and his beleaguered people.
 
Richard M. Bennett
 
 

AFI Research, The Ground Floor, 27 The Avenue, Newton Abbot, Devon, TQ12 2BZ, UK afi@supanet.com  (main contact point for the News Media)  contact:  tel:  +44(0)1626 33 50 40   fax:  +44(0)1626 33 50 40

AFI Research (US Office), c/o Alan Simpson, National Press Building, Suite 1059, Washington DC 20045, USA news@comlinks.comcontact:  tel: (202) 662 7109   fax: (202) 662 7127

AFI Associates; Richard M Bennett (Founder & Senior Associate), Michael Crawford (Milnet-USA), Sidney E Dean (Consultant-Political Analyst-USA),
Michael Fishpool (Consultant-European Defence), John G. Habenstein (Intellecom Inc-USA), Glenn Jones (Consultant-Australia),
Dr Yuri Nekrassov (Consultant-Russia), David Oliver (Consultant -UK), Anthony O'Mahony (Consultant-MRPA Security), Ravi Rikhye (Orbat-USA),
Alan Simpson (ComLinks-USA) and Dr Robert Zeidner (Consultant-USA)

Maj Kamal Tahir, C.D.Ashok, Maj Frank P.Hayes, Col Massimo Menghini and Dr Fiona Campbell (AFI Research Team),Dr James Hawker(Administration)  and Kate Bennett (AFI Archivist & Webmaster).

AFI Associated websites  www.intelbriefing.com    www.milnet.com/milnet/afi/     www.orbat.com  www.intellecom-inc.com
www.defense-i.comwww.european-defence.co.uk www.freelancedirectory.org

The views expressed are the contributor's own and do not necessarily represent those of AFI Research AFI Research news feeds are available in both HTML and Plain text formatTo unsubscribe or if you have received this message in error, please contact afi@supanet.com

The outstanding 'America goes to War' can be found at our associate ORBAT.COM - the USA's top orbat source, while MILNET.COM provides extensive material on weapons and the infrastructure of worlds armed forces.