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Iran and Iraq began whining about being called part of the "Axis of Evil" almost as soon as the words came out of the mouth of U.S. President George W. Bush.  Liberal press worldwide scoffed and then began to find ways to make parody of the U.S. leader's "naive view" of North Korea, Iran, and Iraq.  And the so called debate continues even weeks later.   A CNN reporter even wondered aloud, once again, if the people in North Korea are wondering how it is they can be linked with Iran -- as if there has never been or never will be such a linkage.  This blatant rewriting of history requires correction.
 
 

The Axis of Evil - Why Those Three Countries?

So what is behind the President's rather clear indictment of a handful of nations?  Back in October-November, MILNET built a "Where to Next" decision matrix to illustrate the factors  the U.S. leaders might be using to decide on the direction to go next in the War on Terror.  Now that President Bush has narrowed the field, we again look at the reasoning behind placing these three at the top of the hit list.

You don't have to look far to find more than a handful of countries that are well known for sponsoring terrorism.  And you also don't have to look far for nations that are deserving of attention as nations who have or are developing weapons of mass destruction.  So why these three?  Building on the original MILNET produced decision matrix , we look at North Korea, Iran, and Iraq to find the common threads that most likely are concerning leaders of the War on Terror.
 
 

General Analysis

All three nations in Bush's "Axis of Evil" have three things in common:

1. Known to have had or thought to continue to develop NBC (Nuclear, Biological and Chemical) weapons.
2. Known to have or are developing long range missile systems capable of threatening neighbors as well as engaged in export or import of needed materials, technologies or entire delivery systems
3. Known to have supported or are currently supporting terrorists aimed at (individually or in combinations) western leader nations such as the U.S., Great Britain, or Israel.  Not to mention Russia, China, Turkey, or any European nation.

North Korea

The North Korean nuclear weapons program, by 1994, was thought to have produced enough material for one to two weapons.  Importation of necessary materials and manufacturing facilities (not only JUST dual use).  While intervention by the U.S. at that time was thought to have made inroads into shelving their program, it appears today that U.S. attempts only managed to slow the work, and full scale production may be back on the top of the priority list.  While actual weapons production does not seem to be in process, procurement of a wide variety of components IS in process, implying that North Korea may be planning to have all the components they need to assemble weapons.  If non-proliferation watchers have missed the accumulation of suitable nuclear material, then the North Korean nuclear weapons program may be able to assemble weapons at a moments notice.

The North Korean biological warfare program is quite mature, offering anthrax, cholera, and plague agents ready for mounting in long range delivery systems.  Non-proliferation experts believe North Korea's signing of the Biological Weapons Convention was a sham to induce the U.S. and others to limit their applying heavy pressure against futher development.

The chemical program in North Korea is booming, being one of the hottest consumers of GNP in North Korea, this while the rest of the economy flounders and aid for starving North Koreans continues to pour into the country.  U.S. Allied intelligence community assets indicate humanitarian aid may be resold and revenue funneled to the nuclear and chemical programs.  There is very high confidence that North Korea has blood, nerve, blister, and choking agents in production and stored, waiting for the call to be mounted on delivery systems.

In terms of delivery systems, North Korea is once again testing long range delivery systems and worse, is already exporting to Iran and Iraq as well as other terrorist nations.  The Tonpo-Dong 2 rocket system currently in development is thought to approach the 6000 mile range, making North Korea the epitome of the U.S. designation of "rogue nation" able to strike across the pole to U.S., Europe and Russia.  Current systems already allow North Korea to attack China, Mongolia, Russia, Japan, and South Korea.  The future systems will reach Alaska, Northern most Canada, Australia and all of  Central, South and Southeast Asia as well as the U.S. Central Command's AOR of Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

North Korean military personnel are trained and practiced in fighting in contaminated environment, with front line troops (border of North and South Korea) fully outfitted for fighting in chemical or biological conditions.

There is no indication that North Korea has resisted any orders from any country for any product they possess.  Therefore, it is hardly a stretch to imagine that the existing chemical and biological agents in the hands of North Korea are already making their way to Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and others.  Thus it is also not hard to believe that components for nuclear weapons or nuclear material production have already been sold to high bidders in the terrorist world.

While information available publicly does not conclusively prove movement of NBC components, delivery systems or complete systems, sources in the clandestine community indicate there is proof positive.

While North Korea does not appear to have enough funds to actually aid terrorist organizations, their sales of items on the "no-no" list is perhaps a worse indictement of the country's leadership and constitutes a clear and present danger to world peace, and the security of countries on global terrorist's lists of targets (U.S., U.K., most of Europe and Israel).  The naive assumption that there is no fundamental religious connection to Iraq and Iran is dangerous -- North Korea will sell to anyone with the money in hand, or where they can trade for items they need in their own NBC programs.  To say otherwise is refuting facts in history and publicly available.
 
 

Iraq

At the conclusion of the Gulf War, and as part of the treaty which allowed Suddam Hussein to watch Coalition forces withdraw from Iraq, the U.N. began to send NBC inspectors into suspicious facilities throughout Iraq.  Within a few years, the monitoring program began to break down.  After several ups and downs in the program, in December of 1998, the last inspectors left Iraq, convinced at that time that Iraq was hiding the re-emergence of a crash program to restart their NBC programs.  At that time the estimates were that Iraq would be able to complete a chemical program within 3 years, a biological program in less than 5 years and a nuclear weapons program  at just over 5 years.

Recent assessments (open and covert) of supplies and budget diversions indicate that not only has Iraq beaten those estimates.  For instance, diversion of oil for food program revenues in the last two quarters indicate that a major project is eating up funds and the sources of equipment both indicate that Iraq may be arming at least several nuclear or chemical weapons as well as fitting them to MRBM delivery systems.

The U.N. UNSCOM organization estimated that Iraq had produced some four times the publicly admited 30,000 liters of biological agents (bulk and filled munitions).  Thus Iraqi claims of destruction of the 30,000 liters probably means there is at least 90,000 liters of biological agents in hidden storage facilities much of which is weaponized and "ready to go".
The discovery of VX in 1998 in huge quantities indicates Iraq's willingness to lie for seven years about their chemical program.

Confirmed sources indicate that biological systems are in full production and stockpiles are growing, sufficient in quantity to apply punitive attacks against Israel if any western nation attacks Iraq.

Clearly of all the nations allied with terrorists, Iraq is the second most in need of funds and clearly has no compunction in usin ghe weapons themselves - and analysts agree that Iraq is already selling chemical if not biological weapons to middle eastern Islamic Extremists.  The discovery of VX in 1998 in huge quantities indicates Iraq's willingness to lie for seven years about their chemical program, thus it is not hard to believe they would lie about sales and distribution to anyone who asks for these agents.

Therefore, sales of nuclear weapons components, fissionalbe materials as well as completed weaopns cannot be far off in the future.  In fact, with Suddam Hussein's anti-western rhetoric, there is very high confidence (> 90%) that Iraq will sell ready made nuclear weapons to practically anyone who agrees to use them on Iraq's stated enemies (U.S., U.K., and Israel).

Iraq's Al-Abbas rocket, with its 950 km range makes it able to threaten Cyprus, Turkey, Georgia (former USSR), Azerbaijan (Former USSR), Russia, Kahzakhstan (Former USSR),  Turmenistan (Former USSR), Iran, Kuwait, Oman, UAE,  Jordon, Egypt, Israel, Lebabnon, and Syria.  Interaction between North Korea and Iraq may lead to purchase of longer range missiles that North Korea has begun selling to just about any nation that asks.

Covert sources indicate that Iraq is continuing to fund terrorist organizations at high rates, including Hamas and Hezbollah against Israel.  Al-Qaida continues to receive funds through various means (albeit limited by recent financial interception efforts by the Anti-Terrorism Coalition) from Iraq.
 
 

Iran

Iran's public display of new missile systems and deployment (Jane's Defense Weekly) of the 1300 km range Shahab-3 system clearly indicate that they intend to become one of the pre-emminent military powers in the Middle East.  The Shahab-4 and Shahab-5 systems said to be "Space Launch Vehicles Only" by Iran is not believed by any western analyst.  Worse yet, is the fact that Iran is already selling weapons to other "rogue nations".   Iran has already established the link with North Korea through purchases of ballistic missile technology.  Also aiding the Iranians have been Russia (earlier SCUDs, recent aid does not appear to be flowing, however, Russian weapons deals tend to operate independent of government intervention), and China (CSS-8 SRBMs).

With current systems, Iran already can easily target Turkey, Georgia (former USSR), Azerbaijan (Former USSR), Russia, Kahzakhstan (Former USSR),  Turmenistan (Former USSR), Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Kuwait, Oman, UAE,  Jordan and Syria.  The Shahab-4 and -5 systems will most likely develop into ICBM ranges able to reach the U.S. in the next 15 years.

The Iranian chemical and biological programs are quite mature.  Iran offers their military the necessary operational infrastructure and a growing stockpile of choking, blistering and blood agents.  These have been weaponized in both artillery and missile delivered systems.

Iran has already sold tons of weapons to terrorist organizations, and it is clear that they would be willing (if they haven't already) sold NBC weapons, components, and production equipment to these same customers.  The recent movement of tons of weapons from Iran to Lebanon and Syria via boat and overland routes indicates that Iran, like Iraq, will supply any country or terrorist who aims at killing U.S., U.K., or Israeli citizens.

According to the U.S. premier document on non-proliferation Proliferation:  Threat and Response for 2000 (published January 2001),
 

"Iran has put emphasis on becoming independent in the indigenous production of various military hardware including NBC weapons and missiles.  As Iran has made progress in the last few years, particulary in the areas of chemical warfare and ballistic missiles,  the potential has increased for it to export some of these weapons, related technology, or expertise, to other countries of proliferation concern, such as Libya or Syria."

Summary

The three countries named as the "Axis of Evil" are indeed a clear and present danger to countries that favor individual freedoms, modern life and by their support Israel, are by definitions targets of Islamic Extremists.  They are already tied together through sales of technology, expertise and whole systems for development, production, and delivery of weapons of mass destruction.  They are clearly producers to terrorist nations looking for weapons, and there is no clear compunction against their providing NBC weapons as well as conventional.    These three countries are a clear and present danger to the U.S. and the rest of the world.

The tables below show the factors that lead MILNET to believe that President George W. Bush has plenty of public evidence to link the three countries as a centerpiece for terrorist support today and a future magntitude that grows more dangerous as each week goes by.
 
 

	NBC Weapons Factors			Terrorist Support Factors
Country	Has or  Developing	Has Used	Likely To  Share	Support or Funds	Harbors	Training	Tolerates Groups	Attacks Neighbors/ Border Disputes	Activity Level	Funding/ Supplies
Iraq	Y	Y	Y	Y	Any	Y	Y	Y	2-3 months	Well
Iran	Y	?	Y	Y	2	Y	Y	Y	6 months	Some
North Korea	Y	-	Y	Y	1	Y	Y	Y	2-3 mos	Well

 

Documentation Factors
Country	Patterns	Threat and Response					Embargo List
		Nuclear	Biological	Chemical	RWDW	Delivery
Iraq	Y	dev	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Iran	Y	dev	Y	Y	dev?	Y	Y
North Korea	Y	dev	Y	Y	dev?	Y	Y

Sources:

Sources used in this briefing were:

The Federation Of American Scientists
MSNBC Online
The L.A. Times
The San Jose Mercury News
The Washington Post
The New York Times
Rush Limbaugh
Michael Savage
The U.S. Naval Post Graduate School Terrorist Group Profiles
The U.S. State Department
The U.S. Department of Defense
MILNET:  The War On Terror - Where To Next

 © Copyright, 2002, Michael Crawford and the editors of MILNET

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