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US policy on Iraq faces major set-back
 
Iraq took a huge step back into the mainstream Arab world when the Vice-President was publicly embraced by the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia at the Beirut conference. Iraq's vow never to again invade Kuwait while not fully accepted by some Gulf States may well prove sufficient for the main Arab nations to further distance themselves from the United States stance on Iraq as a member of the 'axis of evil'. Iran also a target for Washington's anger has re-established considerable transport and commercial links with Saddam Husseins regime, however the real bonus for Baghdad has been the growth in military and intelligence co-operation between the former enemies and with Iran's closest ally, Syria. Real progress has been made in establishing the framework for an joint early-warning and SIGINT capability stretching from the Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf and the greatly improved relations between Baghdad and Riyadh may now release a flood of Saudi cash to obtain advanced technology from around the world to further enhance the Iraqi air defence system.
 
The movement of US Command and Control centres from al Kharj, south of Riyadh to the huge military complex at Al Udeid in Qatar has been accelerated in recent weeks. The base, which has been developed to station more than 100 combat aircraft has a 5000m runway capable of handling USAF B52 strategic bombers, while a pre-positioned US Armoured Brigade is housed nearby. Washington's need for the $1.7billion Al Udeid facility has been greatly increased by the deterioration in relations with Saudi Arabia since the start of the Afghan campaign and the urgent requirement for a secure alternative command centre for any attack on Iraq. However, just how secure these new facilities are may be in doubt, for when US Vice President Cheney met Qatari Emir Hamad Bin Khalifa on March 17 it was made abundantly clear that Qatar's government is still opposing any new war with Iraq and its foreign minister last week restated this view when he called for the Arab nations to re-open a dialogue with Baghdad.
 
Washington's unilateralist policies may backfire
 
Washington is also greatly concerned that Israel's open rejection of the Saudi peace proposal will further alienate mainstream Arab opinion and weaken the United States chances of maintaining what's left of the coalition against terrorism in the Middle East. Indeed it is now within the power of the Israeli Prime Minister to sink Washington's ability to create an Arab consensus for action against Iraq by carrying out massive military reprisals for the Passover massacre that claimed at least 20 lives, even if this action still falls short of a re-occupation of all Palestinian territory. The Israeli cabinet has been closely briefed by the intelligence services who are warning that this recent attack is just the beginning of a wide-scale upsurge of Islamic terrorism, while internal security has further added to the Governments gloom by the admission that Israel cannot be adequately defended against such fanaticism. This comes at a time when informed sources suggest that the ordinary Israeli has had enough and would now reluctantly accept the vigorous use of the military option.
 
Washington has paid far too little attention to the 'Palestinian problem' in recent months and none at all to the potential 'Israeli problem'. This may now come back to haunt them if Israel opts to go it alone. The United States and particularly George Tenet, the DCI played no small part in formulating and promoting the Saudi Plan. It was clearly seen as a 'last best' opportunity to bring an end to the Intifada. Its promotion as an Arab plan neatly avoided instant rejection by anti-US Arab States and it must be galling for Washington to have it finally scuppered by its Israeli allies. The United States faces starkly difficult choices in the next few weeks, the initial assault on Iraq may be further delayed as yet more allies find reasons to have 'second thoughts'. Europe in particular and perhaps even a chastened Mr Blair should there be a sizeable backbench revolt against his continued unquestioning support of President Bush, will be even less likely to support US military action if there appears to be the slightest prospect that a newly respectable Iraqi regime may be open to persuasion. The United States has accepted that its newly re-inforced unilateralist credentials may not be to everyone's taste, but even the most pessimistic denizen of Foggy Bottom could hardly have envisaged the realistic prospect of having to 'go it' completely alone.
 
Richard M. Bennett and ZIL
 
 
 
 

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