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Sharon and Arafat square up at last
 
There is reportedly a CIA SOG (Special Operations Group) paramilitary unit operating in the area around Arafat's HQ in Ramallah. Its main task appears to be monitoring the Israeli counter-terrorism crack-down, however it may also become involved in providing security for Yasser Arafat should he decide to accept what are effectively surrender terms being offered by Israel, with the probable approval of the DCI George Tenet and of release in return for exile.
 
That may just be removal to the Gaza Strip which would be turned into a virtual open prison for Palestinian militants exiled from the West Bank under some form of joint International-Arab supervision. This is probably a non-starter due to Egyptian disapproval. The immediate alternative is of transferring Arafat to Saudi Arabia probably through Jordan. It is understood that Saudi Prince Abdullah may have already offered him at least temporary exile. The West Bank would come under a military administration until Israel was certain it had destroyed the Palestinian militant infrastructure.

Sharon is now openly proposing that Yasser Arafat be given a permanent base outside of Palestine and perhaps even the Middle East. Officials in Ariel Sharon's office have said that diplomats wanting to see the Palestinian leader in his besieged office can only do so if they help to persuade him to go into 'voluntary' exile.They first proposed allowing Mr Arafat to leave his headquarters, now surrounded by tanks and troops, if arrangements were made for him to live in exile outside of the Palestinian West Bank, but Egypt has already rejected the Israeli suggestion.

Little support for Sharon from his security chiefs

However, Israeli security services are deeply opposed to Sharon's plan and believe that it would be better to keep Arafat isolated and under siege in his headquarters than to let him renew international support overseas. In a heated Cabinet meeting the Israeli Defence Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer and senior military intelligence officials persuaded Sharon that the forced expulsion of Arafat would be dangerously counterproductive.

Arafat is faced with unenviable choices and may just decide to 'tough it out' in his Ramallah headquarters until his very presence has become such a huge embarrassment to Sharon that the Israelis simply either turn him into a martyr or an enforced exile.      Either way, Israel military action will not prevent Palestinian anger growing or the beginnings of widespread protest in the Arab world.

INSIGHT & 'Jonathan Ben Tal'
 
 

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