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UPI reports that French newspaper says Al-Qaida is preparing to kidnap hundreds of Europeans.  Is this a new escalation of the War or is it simply a scare tactic designed to give the re-elected President more power?

Al Qaida to go on European Rampage? Omar Mullah to retake Afghanistan?  Really?

According to the French newspaper (cited by a UPI story published on 5/6/2002), the Al Qaida network is preparing for mass kidnappings of upwards to 200 citizens all over Europe, at theatres, churches and "even hijacking cruise ships."

Well that is pretty damned scary.  However, since no sources are specified by any of those reporting on this particular scare, it gets a little harder to believe.  And the timing the day after French elections...well, who knows.  Let's look closer.

The newspaper (again according to UPI) gained its information from German intelligence sources in Pakistan.  Now that seems like a reach.  Let's see...the information is supposed to have been shared with other European intelligence sources.

Now wouldn't that mean that our friends in say Germany or Britain would have shared this devastating information with their American colleagues, since its pretty hard to tell the difference between say an Englishman, German or Frenchmen from a U.S. citizen visiting Europe (one of the biggest vacation spots for U.S. travelers)?  Hmmm.

A quick check of our sources in the U.S. comes up nil.  That's odd.  Well hell.  Let's check MSNBC, CNN, and Fox Cable -- these guys will jump on any story of even the slightest value -- well there is an interesting assassination story on Fox News, seems a dutch advocate of an immigration ban has been shot in the head, Right-wing Dutch politician Pim Fortuyn is not expected to survive -- he was very vocally anti-Islam, according to Fox he "has criticized Islam as a "backward culture."  Well that might upset an Islamic terrorist enough to assassinate him we suppose.  But is this just the first of new terrors heaped on Europe by Al-Qaida.  Nope.  And no other hint to the events "disclosed" by the French newspaper.  Even CNN which just loves to tout the drama of the Middle East and their attacks on U.S. and European citizens had NADA (that's Spanish -- mean's nothing or something thereabouts, pilgrim).

There IS a report that Mullah Omar is not only alive but just waiting for the right moment to strike at the heart of Afghanistan and take it back...with all the escaped troops he has at his beck and call.  That's another good one.

And of course, there is the U.S. DoD complaining that it may be another year before they are finished in Afghanistan.

The reality though seems to be all much less than advertised.  A U.S. assisted Canadian campaign has not found much to brag about -- empty caves, a few gunshots fired at them randomly from unknowns...similar to the touted Operation Snipe -- activity but not even hundreds of fleeing enemy.  So where are Mullah Omar's forces hiding?  In Pakistan?  Special Ops guys from the U.S. are lookin' around, but so far, it's looking like either these guys are well hidden underground or perhaps, just perhaps, they just don't exist. Hmmm.

And then there is the oil story.  That's the great one.  Let's assume for a minute that the entire war was over oil.  Wouldn't it seem reasonable for our troops to travel the length of an Afghan territory ripe for installation of a pipeline?  Wouldn't it be a good idea to start that oil pipeline or have some oil companies go on in and start exploration, drilling and pumping?  Wouldn't that pull the Al-Qaida and Taliban out of the hills like bears to honey?  Hmmm.

MILNET's analysis:  B.S. of the highest order.  We are sure the Canadians and Brits are finding resistance in their "sweeps" of the mountains and caves, but seriously folks, this is not a big and deadly military campaign.  There are no divisions of resistance forces to quell.  These are mop up operations.

Where is the opposition?  Why all the concern with having Press along?  MILNET believes that nice CNN lady who loves Al Qaida would be a great guest of the Brits or Canadians.  Put her in a flak vest and we'll hear all about the hundreds of brave resistance fighters standing up to the onslaught of imperialist nasties from North America and Europe. Maybe we'll see some tracer fire from the other side as it makes the lady from CNN duck.  Maybe.   Do you seriously believe Hiraldo would be in Bethlehem if there was intense fighting in Afghanistan?  That guy has a death wish -- he'd be sneaking into the battle zone with Klieg lights on so the opposition would be taking pot shots to add drama.  But there doesn't seem to be much drama in Afghanistan right now, just slow plodding, "Make Sure" work for the Brits and Canadians.  And the U.S. guys?  Non combat seems to be more dangerous.  Somebody ought to be looking at why so many guys  are killed in non combat operations.  What gives?  But back to the point.

Al Qaida,  an international network? Yes.  Could they bring off hundreds of kidnappings?  Not likely.  Mullah Omar going to take back Afghanistan?  No Way!

But, let's try to be open-minded.  Suppose Al Qaida COULD bring off some kidnappings in Europe.  Say, maybe a dozen.  Okay.  What would be the result?  Does anyone believe this would be good for Al Qaida?   Europe has been quietly dragging their feet of late in the War on Terror.  We assume Al Qaida would like things to continue like that for quite awhile.  They need to recruit some new fodder. Europe has been a huge financial center for laundering Al Qaida funds out of the Middle East.  Does anyone believe they want to screw that up?  Al Qaida needs the Mosques in Europe to continue to preach their mantra of death to the West.  They won't be able to do that if they stir up the Europeans.

A better plan -- maybe go into the Palestine refugee camps and find a bunch of martyrs, god knows they are being bred there by the dozens as Arafat continues to refuse peace.  How about training camps in Iran?  That works better.  Stay the hell away from Iraq, though.

Even an open minded idiot would look at the French story as being B.S.  But we could be surprised.  Unfortunately one thing the terrorists have shown, is that they will do stupid things -- in fact anything, just to up the terror a notch.  And they do seem to do a pretty good job of taking advantage of open societies.  We'll cross our fingers just in case.  But none of this seems a rationale argument for declining tourism.  The only places NOT to go as a tourist today are listed in the U.S. State Department's travel warnings at http://www.state.gov/travel and the summary of countries is at http://travel.state.gov/warnings_list.html.  There are 29 countries under warning all the usual places like Lebanon, Nigeria, Iran.  We recommend you always check the DoS site before travel.
 

© Copyright, 2002, Michael Crawford, MILNET

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