"If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear" - George Orwell

Iraq may opt for the unexpected
 
Intelligence sources in the Middle East have suggested to AFI Research that Iraq's response to the threat of a largely US assault may not take the path normally predicted. Far from merely trying to exploit differences between the European and US approach and indeed playing Saddams traditional 'brinkmanship' game, hoping that time and a break down in the coalition will save their necks, Iraq's leadership may indeed opt for the unexpected and a rather more robust reaction. These sources confirm the widespread preparations for unconventional operations and suggest that these will be given the go-ahead by Baghdad once Saddam Hussein and his top advisers are finally convinced of Washington's determination to overthrow the Iraqi regime and confirmation of the movement of sufficient forces to launch a full-scale attack.
 
Only the presence of a significant conventional US force will finally trigger possible Iraqi actions as Saddam's Security advisers are convinced that they can overcome internal Iraqi opposition encouraged by the CIA and even supported by US Special Forces.
Iraq has a range of options from widespread sabotage attacks on the US build-up of forces to a full scale, though probably suicidal, pre-emptive missile strike on targets throughout the Middle East.
 
China and North Korea enhance Iraq's weapons capability
 
Iraq does indeed possess significant numbers of re-engineered SCUD's and indigenous Surface-to-Surface missile systems with both guidance and range now greatly enhanced by renegade Russian technicians and major Chinese and North Korean assistance programs. Many of the difficulties with CBW warheads have been overcome in recent years and these may now be truly effective particularly against unprepared and highly populated civilian targets. More significantly a number of Middle Eastern Intelligence services, including the Turkish MIT, are concerned that Iraq now possesses some form of nuclear capability. Significant quantities of important nuclear materials are reported to have been obtained from a former Soviet Republic and while Iraq may still be some months away from creating a true nuclear warhead, their ability to produce a proto-bomb in the form of a plutonium sleeve placed around a ultra-high explosive HMX core which could still cause devastating radiation over a wide area, is no longer seriously doubted.
 
However, the most alarming program suspected to have been underway for some years concerns the acquisition or production of low-yield Atomic Demolition Munitions. While Iraqi attempts at miniaturization have not yet been entirely successful, weapons small enough to fit in a van, truck, hijacked commercial aircraft or a fishing boat are now a distinct and alarming possibility.
With such weapons in his possession, Saddam Hussein may be able to carry out devastating attacks on western assets with the blame being placed firmly on Islamic terrorists, at least at first.
 
Saddam may not wait for nemesis to arrive
 
Iraq does seem to have a suitable well trained force to carry out such attacks.  Special units of 'Saddam's Martyrs' or 'the Men of Sacrifice' have been selected and trained under cover of the wider para-military organization of the same name, while further suicide teams are drawn from the so-called 'Jerusalem Army' which is used to cover the training of hundreds of Islamic volunteers including pilots, from outside Iraq. These fighters are instructed in sabotage, assassination, suicide attacks and the hijacking of foreign commercial aircraft, while they also receive the full back-up of the Iraqi intelligence services including the provision of forged passports and the necessary documentation for covert operations in the USA and Western Europe.
 
The Iraqi leader may indeed wait several more months before he considers the time is right to take the initiative, but faced with certain nemesis Saddam Hussein is unlikely to simply allow Washington to pick the time and place. Iraq is working hard to produce weapons that may reduce much of the Middle East to a wasteland devastated by chemical attack, biological weapons or radiation. This may indeed be the bill that the United States will have to pay for their determination to rid the region of a leader that Washington for so long considered a close and valuable ally.
 
Richard M Bennett and the AFI Middle East Intelligence Team.
 

AFI Research, The Ground Floor, 27 The Avenue, Newton Abbot, Devon, TQ12 2BZ, UK.
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Richard M. Bennett is the author of FIGHTING FORCES a review of the worlds leading Armies, including many in the Middle East, published in September 2001 and is available from Barrons of New York  www.barronseduc.com  ISBN 0-7641-5343-9  and the forthcoming ESPIONAGE An encyclopedia of Spies and Secrets, which will be available from Virgin Books later this year.

Richard Bennett Media also provides coverage of specialist domestic Political, Social, and Law & Order issues and acts as consultants for international Film and TV Companies on military and espionage history. If quoting from this Media Briefing in anyway, please ensure that you credit Richard Bennett Media at all times

The AFI Research website lists many of our Associates and Contributors including  'America goes to War' at Orbat.com  and the defence coverage of Milnet.com.

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