"If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear" - George Orwell

Middle East peace - a fading hope
 
As Washington and the European nations appear to be drifting further apart on the future of Palestine, whether to attack Iraq, trade and even the future of space-based communications, only historical self-interest prevents a more serious schism from developing. The predominate impression of a United States deeply and irrationally pro-Israel and a Europe still beset with anti-Semitism and a tendency to support the Arab cause is a highly unsatisfactory and a rather glib interpretation of the complicated and intertwined sets of relations and involvement's that determine Middle Eastern policy on both sides of the Atlantic. It is further complicated by Britain's position, seen by some inside the European Union as nothing better than Washington's fifth column, while increasingly taken for granted by The Whitehouse as a glorified cheerleader.
 
None of the squabbling over steel quota's, trade, global warming or the Gallileo project matters a damn in the Middle East, bar the fact that it furthers reduces the chances of an international consensus on the peace process. However, in reality even this is of little real consequence in the search for a viable solution to the Palestinian problem. For though ferociously denied in both Washington and Jerusalem, it is undoubtedly a fact that only Israel has the military power to effectively make war and with a major chance of policy in Jerusalem, the wherewithall to make peace. It can be argued that only Israel has the opportunity to offer the concessions necessary to kick-start the negotiations. Arafat has virtually nothing left to concede and has little remaining authority or power to reign in the suicide bombers, particularly after the recent Israeli campaign to destroy his security infrastructure.
 
Only Israel has the power to make war, and peace
 
Israel occupies large tracts of Arab land, exploits Arab water resources, has built hundreds of illegal settlements in defiance of the international community and continues to ignore countless UN resolutions. Jerusalem also controls the only effective regional armed forces and has the undeniable support of the worlds only superpower. Against this what actually does Chairman Arafat have to offer, apart from open condemnation of the only means left to his beleaguered people to resist Israel; terrorism.
Would Hamas, Hizbollah and Al Qa'ida or Qa`idat al-Jihad take any notice, bar perhaps assassinating Arafat and any other moderate Palestinian brave enough to follow his lead?
 
Israel and Israel alone has something tangible to offer negotiations. The return of lands occupied since 1967, the dismantling of some of the illegal settlements, vital water resources and perhaps even the return of some or all of the millions of Palestinian refugees many of whom have languished in sordid camps since 1948.  In return for an end to terrorism, acceptance by all the Arab nations of the State of Israel and even more importantly, cast iron guarantees of Israel's future security by the international community led by the USA. For Palestine the prize would undoubtedly be the early prospect of complete sovereignty, a democratically elected government and a major rebuilding of its civilian infrastructure funded by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States.
 
If Israel is unprepared to accept this or something similar then there is simply no realistic chance of peace in the Middle East. Sharon's stunning rebuff by Likud at the weekend would suggest that even if the old General could bring himself to offer a viable peace treaty based on an independent Palestinian State to his old enemy Arafat, he would not retain the support of Israel's biggest political party for long. Sharon must now be even more aware of the former Prime Minister, the hawkish Benyamin Natanyahu hovering in the background ready to take advantage of the first signs of weakness in dealing with either Arafat or for that matter, President Bush.
 
Time running out for peace in the region
 
Internationally brokered, but temporary cease-fires will continue to offer the illusion of progress, but merely put off the day of final reckoning. While Israel may indeed be the only source of meaningful concessions, it would be something of a leap of faith for any Jerusalem Government to have the courage to make the concessions necessary under present circumstances unless forcefully encouraged to do so by Washington. Israel deserves and has a right to a future free of the threats of terrorism and invasion, while the Palestinians have an inalienable right to self-determination and a fully independent state.There is little certainty that either will achieve these goals in the near future. Of one thing we can be certain however, if these two ancient Semitic peoples cannot learn to live together, then they will most certainly continue to die together.
 
It would appear that a genuine peace agreement is not yet in sight nor even just round the corner. Time is however, very definitely running out as the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and the introduction of effective delivery systems in the region turns any escalation of the conflict in the Middle East into a nightmare scenario that must eventually concentrate the minds of the worlds leaders - hopefully before its too late.
 
Richard M. Bennett
 

AFI Research, The Ground Floor, 27 The Avenue, Newton Abbot, Devon, TQ12 2BZ, UK.
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Richard M. Bennett is the author of FIGHTING FORCES a review of the worlds leading Armies, including many in the Middle East, published in September 2001 and is available from Barrons of New York  www.barronseduc.com  ISBN 0-7641-5343-9  and the forthcoming ESPIONAGE An encyclopedia of Spies and Secrets, which will be available from Virgin Books later this year.

Richard Bennett Media also provides coverage of specialist domestic Political, Social, and Law & Order issues and acts as consultants for international Film and TV Companies on military and espionage history. If quoting from this Media Briefing in anyway, please ensure that you credit Richard Bennett Media at all times

The AFI Research website lists many of our Associates and Contributors including  'America goes to War' at Orbat.com  and the defence coverage of Milnet.com.

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