For commissioned expert articles on the crisis in Kashmir, the conflicts in the Middle East, the threat of international terrorism or the challenge to the Intelligence and Security Services posed by the urgent need for change following the attacks of 911 contact Richard Bennett Media

Intelligence Briefing for the I9th May 2002

EUROPEAN TERRORISM OVERVIEW

As pointed out in the April issue of this European Terrorism review, the extreme Left has stepped up its activity throughout Europe after a lull in their operations. We can also expect a increase in actions by extreme right groups and individuals in some of the European countries, especially after the encouragement of the large support that Le Pen got in the first round of the French elections. Even though most of the votes in the first round would have been largely votes of discontent with the current political leaders in the country and particularly in relation to policies on immigration and crime.

In other European countries the voice of the extreme Right is increasingly heard along with signs of growing discontent. Extreme Right movements are increasingly becoming involved in organized soccer violence, vandalism and rioting rather than in terrorism and planting bombs, however there is a possibility that they may cease the current activities to increase and co-ordinate their actions with other terrorist organizations. There have been examples of extreme Right movements co-operating with radical Islamic groups in the past on the line of "we share a common enemy" and it cannot be excluded that this co-operation will increase in the near future.

Spains crack down on ETA could be counter-productive

Here concerns are rising that the Spanish crackdown on ETA and the attempt to outlaw its political wing Batasuna will force the terrorist movement to completely disappear into the underworld and indeed increase its attacks against Spanish targets. The Spanish police have found evidence that members of Batasuna were involved in setting up money laundry companies for ETA, this was the inset of the arrests on 29 April 2002 of 11 members of Batasuna.

As a first step, Judge Garzon has remanded several Batasuna leaders in prison. Among those imprisoned are the former member of the Herri Batasuna national committee Rufino Etxeberria, Batasuna's treasurer, Jon Gorrotxategi, and the member of the executive committee of Udalbiltza (assembly of Basque municipalities), Joseba Mikel Garmendia.   Allegedly several imprisoned ETA members have requested that the terrorist attacks should be increased, however no confirmation of this has been obtained. Last year there was a plan to hit Spain in its economical heart, tourism. An attack was planned by members of the ETA in Allicante and there is no reason to believe that this plan has been abandoned or the increasingly close connections with the IRA and Colombian terrorists

Italy sees examples of 'free-lance' terrorism

The Italian public prosecutors office firmly believed that there was a direct link connecting the most extreme fringe groups in the anti-globalization movement and the subversive groups responsible for the attack on the Interior Ministry on 26 February this year, in which a device (a moped packed with explosives) was parked against the walls of the Viminale (Ministry of Interior).

A recent attack on the Milanese metro described as an isolated event by the Italian police was also described as being the work of amateurs. A 30 kilo gas canister was placed in Milan's metro and set on fire, later the police found an Arabic/Italian text at the metro station. This incident is significant not because of the Arabic/Italian text but more because of the fact that it was executed by amateurs, who probably have no links with International terrorist groups. This is another attack were people who identify themselves with a cause show initiative and are prepared to carry out attacks. A fact described by many as one of the largest dangers of the war against terrorism, the non-affiliated "friends". Their actions may not cause a lot of damage but they create a sense of insecurity among the population and increase the pressure on the governments.

Furthermore Italy is cracking down on an Al Qa'ida group in Lombardy, no detailed information has been released on this operation as yet, but it is likely that this terrorist cell has also very good links to the Algerian Salafite Group for Preaching and Combat. The GSPC is an offspring of the GIA (Armed Islamic Group) and considered as the most dangerous groups of all Algerian groups.

Massive trade in stolen documents

Another concern in Europe is the availability of forged and stolen travel documents. Over the last few years an increasing number of passports and ID cards have been stolen for criminal or terrorist use in almost every European country, indeed up to 200 ID cards were stolen recently by the organized 'pick pocketing' of passengers in various Airports. These stolen or forged documents are then sold for hard cash, at up to 10.000 euro for ID card in combination with credit cards. Several stolen Belgian passports and ID cards turned up in Asia last year and now the Dutch Justice Minister is also ringing the alarm bells. While the Dutch Government appear only concerned about the impact of these forged documents on the Netherlands, there is clearly a lucrative market throughout Europe and the world for such documents.

In an event of considerable interest to Europe, an attack was launched in the Lebanon against a KFC (Kentucky Fried Chicken) restaurant in the city of Tripoli on 9th May 2002. This attack follows recent calls in the Lebanon by Muslim clergymen and other organizations to boycott US goods and restaurants to protest against what they describe as the US unlimited backing of Israel against the Palestinians. The 1.5 Kilo bomb was planted against the outside wall of the restaurant and caused damage to the interior as well, though no casualties were reported. This could also evolve into a trend throughout Europe where Arab groups are similarly calling for a boycott of US goods as retaliation for their support to Israel.

There is now a general concern among the security services that the ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine will be exported to Europe, and there are already some disturbing examples of this fear becoming a reality in the last few weeks.

NJV – nnjv_risk@btopenworld.com
 

AFI Research, The Ground Floor, 27 The Avenue, Newton Abbot, Devon, TQ12 2BZ, UK.
afi@supanet.com   contact:  tel:  +44(0)1626 33 50 40   fax:  +44(0)1626 33 50 40

US Office c/o Alan Simpson, National Press Building, Suite 1059, Washington DC 20045, USA
news@comlinks.com   contact:  tel: +001(202) 662 7109   fax: +001(202) 662 7127

Richard M. Bennett is the author of FIGHTING FORCES a review of the worlds leading Armies, including many in the Middle East, published in September 2001 and is available from Barrons of New York  www.barronseduc.com  ISBN 0-7641-5343-9  and the forthcoming ESPIONAGE An encyclopedia of Spies and Secrets, which will be available from Virgin Books later this year.

Richard Bennett Media also provides coverage of specialist domestic Political, Social, and Law & Order issues and acts as consultants for international Film and TV Companies on military and espionage history. If quoting from this Media Briefing in anyway, please ensure that you credit Richard Bennett Media at all times

The AFI Research website lists many of our Associates and Contributors including  'America goes to War' at Orbat.com  and the defence coverage of Milnet.com.

************************************************************ADVERTISEMENT - FREE NEWS SERVICE! **********************************************************************
The war on terrorism means defense news has become vital; that's why for the foreseeable future PERISCOPE will provide you ABSOLUTELY FREE its Daily Defense News Capsules. Every morning our experienced editors deliver to your email box the most important defense-related stories from press sources worldwide. To receive this FREE SERVICE send an empty email to mailto:ddnc@ucg.com. There's no obligation; act now so you won't miss a single issue! mailto:ddnc@ucg.com.

************************************************************ADVERTISEMENT - FREE NEWS SERVICE!  **********************************************************************